Fuel Detective: UK Fuel Market Intelligence
Institutional briefing format for operational decision support, anomaly triage, and postcode-level market review.
Executive Summary
Report Generated2026-03-27 16:08:49 UTC
Stations Analyzed7,347
Unique Station IDs7,347
Duplicate Output Rows0
Median E10 (PPL)149.900
Average Staleness (Days)78.887
High Probability Rows1,017
High Anomaly Rows8
Fill Now16
Fill Soon128
Brand Profiles37
Postcode Sectors1,282
Sectors Classified (>=3 Stations)1,282
Regime Types5
Dominant RegimeMixed (40.6%)
Target DefinitionObserved price change within horizon
Walk-Forward ROC-AUC Mean0.7259
Walk-Forward ROC-AUC Std0.0239
Walk-Forward Brier Mean0.2103
Walk-Forward Brier Std0.0180
Narrow Uncertainty Coverage93.7%
Interpretation: use high-probability rows with narrow intervals as primary action candidates, then route anomaly flags to validation controls. Output rows are constrained to one row per station ID. 64.8% positive over 7.0-day horizon.
Decision Queue
Standardized triage policy designed for repeatable operations.
| Lane | Rows | Rule | Operational Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Action Now | 997 | Probability >= 0.70, interval width <= 0.20, no high anomaly. | Prioritize for immediate route or procurement decisions. |
| Validate First | 34 | High anomaly, diesel below petrol, or wide uncertainty interval. | Perform manual checks before any policy or financial action. |
| Monitor | 6,316 | No strong trigger condition. | Retain in routine monitoring and reassess at next refresh. |
- Apply decision lanes consistently to reduce discretionary drift across operators.
- Escalate all severe anomalies into documented verification steps.
- Use postcode-sector context to calibrate local competition assumptions.
Signal Guide
Colored labels use current model outputs and station metadata to speed up review.
Fill Recommendation
- Fill now: rise risk score >= 0.45, pence-to-alert <= 3.0, and no high anomaly flag.
- Fill soon: rise risk score >= 0.30, pence-to-alert <= 5.0, below fill-now conditions, and no high anomaly flag.
- Monitor: no immediate fill trigger; keep under routine review.
Risk Rating
- High: rise risk score at or above the fill-now threshold.
- Medium: rise risk score in the fill-soon range.
- Low: rise risk score below fill-soon range.
Station Type (Data Source)
- Supermarket: derived from station `is_supermarket` data in the analysis dataset.
- Non-supermarket: not marked as supermarket in the source data.
Visual Briefing Pack
Brand Positioning (Data-Derived)
Update rate is the station-weighted share of brand rows with staleness below 7 days.
| Brand | Stations | Avg vs Competitors (ppl) | Update Rate (%) | Price Position Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSTCO WHOLESALE | 20 | -10.70 | 0.0 | -41.41 |
| SAINSBURY'S | 316 | -9.00 | 0.0 | -40.16 |
| NICHOLL | 5 | -10.84 | 0.0 | -36.68 |
| HARVEST ENERGY | 15 | -5.33 | 0.0 | -18.98 |
| TESCO | 516 | -4.71 | 99.8 | -13.49 |
| ASDA | 320 | -4.88 | 0.0 | -13.20 |
| MORRISONS | 337 | -4.44 | 0.0 | -11.93 |
| CENTRAL CO-OP | 18 | -4.76 | 0.0 | -6.74 |
| GULF PETROL STATION | 5 | -3.60 | 0.0 | -2.20 |
| CIRCLE K | 31 | -1.70 | 0.0 | 0.63 |
| HIGHLAND FUELS | 11 | -0.55 | 0.0 | 5.73 |
| SOLO | 10 | 0.97 | 0.0 | 6.94 |
| MURCO | 92 | 0.59 | 0.0 | 12.59 |
| ESSAR | 32 | -0.45 | 3.1 | 13.17 |
| GULF | 207 | -0.31 | 0.0 | 13.27 |
| MAXOL | 48 | 1.28 | 0.0 | 16.10 |
| JET | 222 | 0.04 | 3.6 | 16.74 |
| PACE | 21 | 0.89 | 0.0 | 17.26 |
| VALERO | 62 | 0.43 | 6.5 | 17.79 |
| TEXACO | 415 | 0.49 | 8.0 | 18.14 |
Postcode Sector Market Structure
| Postcode Sector | Stations | Avg E10 (ppl) | Price Range (ppl) | Market Type | Price Leader |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CR0 | 14 | 147.89 | 14.00 | Concentrated | SAINSBURY'S |
| BT71 | 14 | 147.90 | 40.00 | Competitive | ANNAGHER SERVICE STATION |
| BT23 | 13 | 148.73 | 7.20 | Competitive | ASDA |
| BT47 | 12 | 145.40 | 21.00 | Competitive | GO |
| LE3 | 12 | 157.22 | 33.00 | Competitive | TEXACO |
| GL2 | 11 | 146.21 | 16.00 | Competitive | SAINSBURY'S |
| LE4 | 11 | 149.88 | 17.00 | Competitive | COSTCO WHOLESALE |
| PR7 | 11 | 152.23 | 41.00 | Competitive | ECCLESTON GREEN FILLING STATION |
| TA6 | 11 | 154.05 | 41.00 | Competitive | SAINSBURY'S |
| ST5 | 11 | 155.15 | 44.00 | Competitive | SAINSBURY'S |
| LE10 | 10 | 148.38 | 5.00 | Competitive | TESCO |
| BT42 | 10 | 148.80 | 16.00 | Competitive | SAINSBURY'S |
| BT30 | 10 | 149.90 | 0.00 | Competitive | CIRCLE K |
| S60 | 10 | 151.40 | 36.00 | Competitive | MORRISONS |
| SN14 | 10 | 154.40 | 42.00 | Competitive | SAINSBURY'S |
| CH7 | 10 | 154.90 | 14.00 | Competitive | RHYDYMWYN SERVICE STATION |
| DE21 | 9 | 143.88 | 24.00 | Competitive | ESSO |
| BT34 | 9 | 143.90 | 29.00 | Competitive | SPAR |
| DL14 | 9 | 144.06 | 14.00 | Competitive | SAINSBURY'S |
| TQ12 | 9 | 146.23 | 13.00 | Competitive | SAINSBURY'S |
| DN4 | 9 | 146.43 | 7.20 | Competitive | ASDA |
| DL1 | 9 | 146.57 | 13.00 | Competitive | SAINSBURY'S |
| TA1 | 9 | 146.66 | 17.00 | Competitive | SAINSBURY'S |
| PR2 | 9 | 146.79 | 14.00 | Competitive | ASDA |
| BT32 | 9 | 148.12 | 5.00 | Competitive | TESCO |
Market Regime Breakdown
| Regime | Sectors | Share (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Mixed | 520 | 40.6 |
| Supermarket Dominated | 461 | 36.0 |
| Fragmented | 113 | 8.8 |
| Competitive | 99 | 7.7 |
| Local Monopoly | 89 | 6.9 |
Top Anomalies
| Station | Brand | Station Type | Postcode | E10 (ppl) | Diesel (ppl) | Change Probability | Anomaly Score | Anomaly Level | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAINSBURYS KELSO | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | TD5 8DW | 134.90 | 162.90 | 0.856 | 85.0 | High | stale update timestamp, large local competitor gap, extreme price quantile, brand diesel spread outlier |
| ASDA CHERWELL VALLEY EXPRESS PETROL | ESSO | Non-supermarket | OX27 7RD | 181.90 | 193.90 | 0.619 | 85.0 | High | stale update timestamp, large local competitor gap, extreme price quantile, brand diesel spread outlier |
| ASDA TAMWORTH EXPRESS PETROL | ESSO | Non-supermarket | B77 5PS | 181.90 | 193.90 | 0.605 | 85.0 | High | stale update timestamp, large local competitor gap, extreme price quantile, brand diesel spread outlier |
| R & T Maybury hill Ltd | TEXACO | Non-supermarket | GU22 8AA | 127.90 | 138.90 | 0.122 | 85.0 | High | stale update timestamp, large local competitor gap, extreme price quantile, brand diesel spread outlier |
| Barnhills of Broxton | GULF | Non-supermarket | CH3 9JR | 130.90 | 138.90 | 0.064 | 85.0 | High | stale update timestamp, large local competitor gap, extreme price quantile, brand diesel spread outlier |
| Robinhood Service Station | GULF | Non-supermarket | PE15 9PZ | 127.90 | 137.90 | 0.059 | 85.0 | High | stale update timestamp, large local competitor gap, extreme price quantile, brand diesel spread outlier |
| Sandybank Garage | TEXACO | Non-supermarket | BB4 7JE | 124.90 | 134.90 | 0.043 | 85.0 | High | stale update timestamp, large local competitor gap, extreme price quantile, brand diesel spread outlier |
| MARYVALE SERVICE STATION | GULF | Non-supermarket | B30 2HJ | 127.70 | 135.90 | 0.041 | 85.0 | High | stale update timestamp, large local competitor gap, extreme price quantile, brand diesel spread outlier |
| SHELL BEACONSFIELD | SHELL | Non-supermarket | HP9 2SE | 175.90 | 189.90 | 0.866 | 70.0 | Medium | stale update timestamp, large local competitor gap, brand diesel spread outlier |
| Cairn Lodge Services | SHELL | Non-supermarket | ML11 0RJ | 178.90 | 191.90 | 0.840 | 70.0 | Medium | stale update timestamp, large local competitor gap, brand diesel spread outlier |
Highest Predicted Price-Change Probability
| Station | Brand | Station Type | Postcode | E10 (ppl) | Change Probability | Upward Direction (p_up) | Probability Interval | Fill Recommendation | Risk Rating | Rise Risk Score | Pence to Fill Alert | Expected Days to Change | Staleness (days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAINSBURYS HANKRIDGE FARM | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | TA1 2LR | 140.90 | 0.989 | 0.041 | 0.974 - 0.989 | Monitor | Low | 0.040 | 8.00 | 1.6 | 90.0 |
| SAINSBURYS MATLOCK | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | DE4 3SP | 138.90 | 0.984 | 0.044 | 0.958 - 0.981 | Monitor | Low | 0.043 | 8.00 | 1.7 | 90.0 |
| SAINSBURYS APSLEY MILL | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | HP3 9QZ | 138.90 | 0.983 | 0.044 | 0.958 - 0.985 | Monitor | Low | 0.043 | 8.00 | 1.7 | 90.0 |
| SAINSBURYS COLERAINE | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | BT51 3QQ | 137.90 | 0.980 | 0.045 | 0.960 - 0.987 | Monitor | Low | 0.044 | 8.00 | 1.8 | 90.0 |
| SAINSBURYS SUNDERLAND | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | SR3 1PD | 140.90 | 0.978 | 0.041 | 0.947 - 0.974 | Monitor | Low | 0.040 | 8.00 | 1.8 | 90.0 |
| SAINSBURYS EDINBURGH LONGSTONE | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | EH14 2ER | 137.90 | 0.977 | 0.045 | 0.966 - 0.981 | Monitor | Low | 0.044 | 7.20 | 1.8 | 90.0 |
| SAINSBURYS HELSTON | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | TR13 8BN | 139.90 | 0.977 | 0.042 | 0.955 - 0.980 | Monitor | Low | 0.041 | 7.25 | 1.8 | 90.0 |
| SAINSBURYS BRADFORD | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | BD10 0QF | 138.90 | 0.974 | 0.044 | 0.965 - 0.980 | Monitor | Low | 0.043 | 6.92 | 1.9 | 90.0 |
| SAINSBURYS LEEK | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | ST13 8YG | 139.90 | 0.974 | 0.042 | 0.952 - 0.976 | Monitor | Low | 0.041 | 7.75 | 1.9 | 90.0 |
| SAINSBURYS MURRAYFIELD | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | EH11 2QW | 137.90 | 0.972 | 0.045 | 0.961 - 0.978 | Monitor | Low | 0.044 | 8.00 | 2.0 | 90.0 |
| SAINSBURYS DUNGANNON | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | BT71 4NA | 137.90 | 0.972 | 0.045 | 0.957 - 0.976 | Monitor | Low | 0.044 | 8.00 | 2.0 | 90.0 |
| SAINSBURYS RAWDON | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | LS19 7BZ | 137.90 | 0.970 | 0.045 | 0.942 - 0.969 | Monitor | Low | 0.044 | 8.00 | 2.0 | 90.0 |
| SAINSBURYS ARNOLD | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | NG5 6BN | 138.90 | 0.970 | 0.044 | 0.957 - 0.979 | Monitor | Low | 0.043 | 8.00 | 2.0 | 90.0 |
| SAINSBURYS KETTERING | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | NN16 8JY | 137.90 | 0.968 | 0.045 | 0.943 - 0.977 | Monitor | Low | 0.044 | 6.72 | 2.0 | 90.0 |
| SAINSBURYS LEAMINGTON | SAINSBURY'S | Supermarket | CV34 6RH | 141.90 | 0.967 | 0.039 | 0.950 - 0.970 | Monitor | Low | 0.038 | 8.00 | 2.0 | 90.0 |
Preemptive Fill Opportunities
| Station | Brand | Station Type | Postcode | E10 (ppl) | Fill Alert Price (ppl) | Pence to Fill Alert | Risk Rating | Rise Risk Score | Upward Direction (p_up) | Expected Days to Change | Fill Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REDCAR SUPERSTORE - PETROL FILLING STATION | TESCO | Supermarket | TS10 2AA | 143.90 | 146.65 | 2.75 | High | 0.695 | 0.903 | 4.8 | Fill now |
| WINDLE ISLAND EXPRESS | TESCO | Supermarket | WA10 6QY | 142.90 | 143.90 | 1.00 | High | 0.641 | 0.931 | 6.0 | Fill now |
| HAYDOCK CHURCH RD SUPERSTORE - PETROL FILLING STATION | TESCO | Supermarket | WA11 0GT | 142.90 | 143.90 | 1.00 | High | 0.577 | 0.933 | 7.3 | Fill now |
| DUDLEY EXTRA - PETROL FILLING STATION | TESCO | Supermarket | DY1 4RP | 144.90 | 146.65 | 1.75 | High | 0.540 | 0.773 | 5.8 | Fill now |
| WHITSTABLE EXTRA - PETROL FILLING STATION | TESCO | Supermarket | CT5 3EE | 143.90 | 146.90 | 3.00 | High | 0.523 | 0.802 | 6.6 | Fill now |
| CONSETT GENESIS EXTRA - PETROL FILLING STATION | TESCO | Supermarket | DH8 5XP | 145.90 | 148.23 | 2.33 | High | 0.523 | 0.831 | 7.0 | Fill now |
| BASILDON PITSEA EXTRA - PETROL FILLING STATION | TESCO | Supermarket | SS13 3JU | 143.90 | 145.32 | 1.42 | High | 0.520 | 0.804 | 6.7 | Fill now |
| ABERDARE SUPERSTORE - PETROL FILLING STATION | TESCO | Supermarket | CF44 8DL | 145.90 | 147.40 | 1.50 | High | 0.493 | 0.824 | 7.7 | Fill now |
| Crowborough Service Station | CROWBOROUGH SERVICE STATION | Non-supermarket | TN6 2SP | 146.90 | 148.15 | 1.25 | High | 0.492 | 0.831 | 7.8 | Fill now |
| SILVERBURN EXTRA - PETROL FILLING STATION | TESCO | Supermarket | G53 6AG | 143.90 | 145.48 | 1.58 | High | 0.477 | 0.849 | 8.5 | Fill now |
| BELLSHILL EXTRA - PETROL FILLING STATION | TESCO | Supermarket | ML4 1EN | 145.90 | 148.75 | 2.85 | High | 0.469 | 0.831 | 8.4 | Fill now |
| YARDLEY EXTRA - PETROL FILLING STATION | TESCO | Supermarket | B26 1AD | 143.90 | 146.75 | 2.85 | High | 0.464 | 0.903 | 9.7 | Fill now |
| GREENOCK EXTRA - PETROL FILLING STATION | TESCO | Supermarket | PA15 1LE | 145.90 | 148.15 | 2.25 | High | 0.462 | 0.803 | 8.2 | Fill now |
| COMPTON ESSO EXPRESS | ESSO | Non-supermarket | PL3 5JU | 145.90 | 148.90 | 3.00 | High | 0.459 | 0.923 | 10.2 | Fill now |
| MELTON MOWBRAY SUPERSTORE - PETROL FILLING STATION | TESCO | Supermarket | LE13 1SQ | 145.90 | 148.40 | 2.50 | High | 0.454 | 0.830 | 8.8 | Fill now |
Model Drivers
| feature | importance | importance_std | importance_lower | importance_upper | stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| diesel | 0.128710 | 0.007123 | 0.114860 | 0.142929 | 18.068995 |
| e10 | 0.100503 | 0.005545 | 0.091216 | 0.111815 | 18.126009 |
| diesel_premium | 0.096218 | 0.006980 | 0.085129 | 0.109782 | 13.784943 |
| diesel_petrol_ratio | 0.096027 | 0.006286 | 0.084719 | 0.107337 | 15.276370 |
| premium_spread | 0.081717 | 0.003772 | 0.074499 | 0.089379 | 21.663456 |
| fuel_price_std | 0.080488 | 0.004242 | 0.074248 | 0.088612 | 18.972515 |
| e5 | 0.078227 | 0.003507 | 0.071345 | 0.085857 | 22.303100 |
| brand_encoded | 0.068623 | 0.002863 | 0.063810 | 0.074841 | 23.969779 |
| price_vs_competitor_avg | 0.054480 | 0.001792 | 0.051790 | 0.058394 | 30.401038 |
| nearest_competitor_distance_km | 0.045602 | 0.001553 | 0.043105 | 0.048842 | 29.368081 |
| price_vs_competitor_min | 0.043226 | 0.001745 | 0.039971 | 0.046175 | 24.770892 |
| regime_price_position | 0.027190 | 0.002466 | 0.022248 | 0.031837 | 11.027925 |
| competition_intensity | 0.025329 | 0.000962 | 0.023381 | 0.027252 | 26.326095 |
| is_supermarket | 0.020446 | 0.002143 | 0.016671 | 0.024916 | 9.541579 |
| is_premium | 0.013273 | 0.001091 | 0.011690 | 0.015119 | 12.161991 |
Downloads
Method and Assurance
Transparent uncertainty
Each probability includes lower, median, and upper bounds to support risk-aware decisions.
Deterministic execution
The pipeline uses fixed seeds and consistent transforms for repeatable outputs on the same data snapshot.
Operational safeguards
High-anomaly and diesel-below-petrol rows are separated for validation-first workflows.
Known limitation
The probability score is learned from observed forward price-change labels and should still be used with policy thresholds and human review.
Technical Appendix
Walk-Forward Fold Metrics
fold_1: train_rows=618 validation_rows=2907 roc_auc=0.7570 brier=0.1850 fold_2: train_rows=848 validation_rows=2907 roc_auc=0.6990 brier=0.2237 fold_3: train_rows=1145 validation_rows=2907 roc_auc=0.7218 brier=0.2224
Summary Snapshot
Fuel Detective Summary
================================================================================
Generated UTC: 2026-03-27T16:08:48.893257+00:00
Data source: UK fuel station full-history dataset
Stations analyzed: 7,347
Unique station IDs: 7,347
Duplicate station rows in output: 0
Median E10 (ppl): 149.900
Median diesel (ppl): 179.900
Average staleness (days): 78.887
Median expected days to change: 14.95
High change probability rows (>0.70): 1,017
High anomaly rows: 8
Diesel cheaper than petrol rows: 7
Stale rows (>60 days): 6,399
Fill-now opportunities: 16
Fill-soon opportunities: 128
Market intelligence
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brand stats rows: 37
Postcode sector stats rows: 1,282
Market regime rows: 1,282
Market regime breakdown:
Mixed: 520 (40.6%)
Supermarket Dominated: 461 (36.0%)
Fragmented: 113 (8.8%)
Competitive: 99 (7.7%)
Local Monopoly: 89 (6.9%)
Cheapest positioning brand: COSTCO WHOLESALE (score=-41.408)
Most expensive positioning brand: WELCOME BREAK (score=60.500)
Largest postcode sector sample: CR0 (stations=14)
Model diagnostics
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Target mode: price_change
Target horizon (days): 7.0
Target positive rate: 0.6482
Class balance: class_0=5113, class_1=9422
Training rows: 1,145
Validation rows: 2,907
Validation ROC-AUC (last fold): 0.7218
Walk-forward ROC-AUC mean: 0.7259
Walk-forward ROC-AUC std: 0.0239
Validation Brier score (last fold): 0.2224
Walk-forward Brier mean: 0.2103
Walk-forward Brier std: 0.0180
Walk-forward fold metrics
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fold_1: train_rows=618 validation_rows=2907 roc_auc=0.7570 brier=0.1850
fold_2: train_rows=848 validation_rows=2907 roc_auc=0.6990 brier=0.2237
fold_3: train_rows=1145 validation_rows=2907 roc_auc=0.7218 brier=0.2224
Classification report
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precision recall f1-score support
stable_state 0.770 0.505 0.610 1518
price_change_next_7d 0.607 0.835 0.703 1389
accuracy 0.663 2907
macro avg 0.688 0.670 0.656 2907
weighted avg 0.692 0.663 0.654 2907
Top feature importance
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diesel: 0.128710
e10: 0.100503
diesel_premium: 0.096218
diesel_petrol_ratio: 0.096027
premium_spread: 0.081717
fuel_price_std: 0.080488
e5: 0.078227
brand_encoded: 0.068623
price_vs_competitor_avg: 0.054480
nearest_competitor_distance_km: 0.045602