Fuel Detective Summary ================================================================================ Generated UTC: 2026-02-18T14:42:04.177095+00:00 Data source: UK fuel station full-history dataset Stations analyzed: 5,676 Unique station IDs: 5,676 Duplicate station rows in output: 0 Median E10 (ppl): 131.900 Median diesel (ppl): 141.800 Average staleness (days): 8.496 Median expected days to change: 10.10 High change probability rows (>0.70): 0 High anomaly rows: 15 Diesel cheaper than petrol rows: 55 Stale rows (>60 days): 0 Fill-now opportunities: 35 Fill-soon opportunities: 804 Market intelligence -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brand stats rows: 30 Postcode sector stats rows: 934 Market regime rows: 934 Market regime breakdown: Competitive: 397 (42.5%) Mixed: 330 (35.3%) Local Monopoly: 85 (9.1%) Fragmented: 78 (8.4%) Supermarket Dominated: 44 (4.7%) Cheapest positioning brand: COSTCO WHOLESALE (score=-43.344) Most expensive positioning brand: WELCOME BREAK (score=53.965) Largest postcode sector sample: CR0 (stations=13) Model diagnostics -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Target mode: next_observation_speed Target horizon (days): 7.0 Target positive rate: 0.5000 Fallback threshold for next-observation target (days): 0.0311 Class balance: class_0=5672, class_1=5673 Training rows: 9,076 Validation rows: 2,269 Validation ROC-AUC (last fold): 0.0701 Walk-forward ROC-AUC mean: 0.0723 Walk-forward ROC-AUC std: 0.0042 Validation Brier score (last fold): 0.2814 Walk-forward Brier mean: 0.2806 Walk-forward Brier std: 0.0010 Walk-forward fold metrics -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- fold_1: train_rows=9076 validation_rows=2269 roc_auc=0.0731 brier=0.2811 fold_2: train_rows=9076 validation_rows=2269 roc_auc=0.0780 brier=0.2803 fold_3: train_rows=9076 validation_rows=2269 roc_auc=0.0657 brier=0.2814 fold_4: train_rows=9076 validation_rows=2269 roc_auc=0.0744 brier=0.2787 fold_5: train_rows=9076 validation_rows=2269 roc_auc=0.0701 brier=0.2814 Classification report -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- precision recall f1-score support stable_state 0.138 0.138 0.138 1134 fast_next_observation 0.139 0.139 0.139 1135 accuracy 0.139 2269 macro avg 0.139 0.139 0.139 2269 weighted avg 0.139 0.139 0.139 2269 Top feature importance -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- nearest_competitor_distance_km: 0.128636 price_vs_competitor_avg: 0.111839 diesel_petrol_ratio: 0.087448 price_vs_competitor_min: 0.079146 fuel_price_std: 0.079128 brand_encoded: 0.067723 diesel: 0.066630 e10: 0.063884 competition_intensity: 0.056871 e5: 0.055282