UK HPI Housing Market Stress Report

Created: 2026-01-07 20:07:42 UTC | Latest month: 2025-10

Scope note: UK HPI is augmented with repossession counts (England regions, England, Wales) where available (coverage: 2016-05 to 2025-08; 11 areas).

Disclaimer: This report responds to comments on the Reddit thread; no commercial use allowed and the work remained a fun exercise. See GitHub and JS Labs for the wider series.

Contents

Overview
Plain-English guide
National snapshot
Market quadrants
Top stressed areas
Model risk
Clusters
HSI composition
Charts

Overview

area_scope	areas	months	start_month	end_month	analysis_lookback_months	report_lookback_months	repossession_start_month	repossession_end_month	repossession_areas
regions_and_countries	14	36	2022-11	2025-10	36	12	2016-05	2025-08	11

Plain-English guide

HSI is a stress score from 0 to 100. Higher means more stress.
Repossession counts are included for England regions/England/Wales (coverage: 2016-05 to 2025-08; 11 areas).
If prices hold up but volumes fall, the market is thin. Thin markets can turn quickly.
If mortgage volumes fall and cash share rises, financing is getting harder or cash is dominating the price.
If first-time buyer prices grow faster than wages, affordability is getting worse.
If volatility rises, pricing is less stable.
If property types diverge (fragmentation), the market is segmented and uneven.
Volume-related fields often lag the latest month. Use the latest_month column in the national snapshot.
Analysis coverage: 2022-11 to 2025-10. Charts and tables coverage: 2024-11 to 2025-10.

Stress signal rules (simple checklist)

signal	rule	interpretation
affordability pressure	affordability_pressure >= 2.0	FTB price growth is materially above the wage growth proxy.
low volume	liquidity_stress >= 0.80	Sales volume is in the bottom part of the area's history (thin market).
cash dominance	cash_dominance >= 0.60 or cash_dominance_hist_pct >= 0.80	Cash share is high; can indicate mortgage constraints or cash-led pricing.
mortgage volume drop	mortgage_volume_drop >= 10.0	Mortgage transaction activity is falling sharply year-over-year.
volatility high	volatility_hist_pct >= 0.80	Monthly price changes are unusually unstable for that area.
fragmentation high	fragmentation_hist_pct >= 0.80	Property types diverge unusually (segmented market).
bubble risk	bubble_risk_z >= 2.0	YoY growth is unusually high vs long-run baseline for that area.
price below inflation	pct_12m < 3.0	Price growth is below the inflation proxy (real-terms decline risk).

National snapshot (latest month)

period	metric	latest_month	latest_value	stress_percentile	meaning
2022-11 to 2025-10	HSI (national)	2025-10	54.447	88.889	Composite stress score (0-100). Higher means more stress.
2022-11 to 2025-10	Price YoY (median)	2025-10	2.100	44.444	Low (below inflation) can indicate real-terms declines.
2022-11 to 2025-10	Sales volume YoY (median)	2025-08	-34.867	90.909	Falling volumes indicate a thinner market and harder financing.
2022-11 to 2025-10	Cash dominance (median)	2025-08	0.258	2.941	High cash share can mean mortgage market stress or cash-driven pricing.
2022-11 to 2025-10	Volatility (median)	2025-10	1.415	96.970	Higher volatility means more unstable monthly pricing.
2022-11 to 2025-10	Repossession rate (England, 12m per 1k)	2025-08	5.458	3.448	Higher means more repossessions per 1k sales (12m rolling sums).
2022-11 to 2025-10	Repossessions YoY% (England)	2025-08	-77.011	2.941	Higher means repossessions are rising faster year-over-year.
2022-11 to 2025-10	Affordability pressure (median)	2025-10	-1.650	58.333	FTB price growth above wage proxy; higher means harder for new buyers.
2022-11 to 2025-10	Mortgage volume drop (median)	2025-08	67.810	100.000	Higher means mortgage transaction activity falling faster (YoY).
2022-11 to 2025-10	Fragmentation (median)	2025-10	2.414	94.444	Higher means property types diverge (segmented market).

How widespread are the stress signals?

Date	signal	share_pct
2025-10	fragmentation high	92.857
2025-10	volatility high	71.429
2025-10	price below inflation	64.286
2025-10	affordability pressure	0.000
2025-10	low volume	0.000
2025-10	cash dominance	0.000
2025-10	mortgage volume drop	0.000
2025-10	bubble risk	0.000

Market conditions quadrants (2024-11 to 2025-10)

AreaCode	RegionName	start_quadrant	end_quadrant	quadrant_switches	valid_months	dominant_quadrant	dominant_share_pct	healthy_share_pct	thin_divergent_share_pct	contracting_share_pct
E12000007	London	Healthy	Contracting	2	10	Healthy	50.0	50.0	40.0	10.0
E12000009	South West	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	2	10	Healthy	50.0	50.0	40.0	10.0
S92000003	Scotland	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	3	10	Healthy	60.0	60.0	40.0	0.0
E12000004	East Midlands	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	50.0	50.0	50.0	0.0
E12000006	East of England	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	50.0	50.0	50.0	0.0
E92000001	England	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	50.0	50.0	50.0	0.0
E12000001	North East	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	50.0	50.0	50.0	0.0
E12000002	North West	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	50.0	50.0	50.0	0.0
N92000002	Northern Ireland	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	50.0	50.0	50.0	0.0
E12000008	South East	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	50.0	50.0	50.0	0.0
K02000001	United Kingdom	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	50.0	50.0	50.0	0.0
W92000004	Wales	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	50.0	50.0	50.0	0.0
E12000005	West Midlands Region	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	50.0	50.0	50.0	0.0
E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	50.0	50.0	50.0	0.0

Changepoints (HSI trend)

changepoint_date

Top stressed areas (latest month)

Date	AreaCode	RegionName	hsi_0_100	hsi_change_1m	hsi_change_3m	hsi_change_6m	hsi_change_12m	stress_flags_total	pct_12m	sales_volume_yoy_pct	top_drivers
2025-10	E12000001	North East	85.557	17.565	2.683	12.643	7.657	2	5.0	NaN	Affordability pressure (18.9), Volatility (18.9), Property-type fragmentation (12.9)
2025-10	E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	64.465	-7.907	5.501	6.340	14.155	2	3.1	NaN	Volatility (16.2), Affordability pressure (15.7), FTB vs average price (7.9)
2025-10	E12000002	North West	64.353	3.100	-1.196	10.508	6.772	2	3.1	NaN	Volatility (17.5), Affordability pressure (17.3), FTB vs average price (8.6)
2025-10	E12000005	West Midlands Region	57.300	3.908	3.185	-1.529	5.837	3	2.7	NaN	Affordability pressure (14.2), Volatility (13.5), Property-type fragmentation (8.6)
2025-10	N92000002	Northern Ireland	56.452	-0.346	25.656	34.888	-10.934	0	7.1	NaN	Volatility (25.3), Bubble risk (z-score) (16.6), Monthly shock (abs z) (12.0)
2025-10	E12000004	East Midlands	55.795	-7.457	-8.331	0.617	0.134	3	2.3	NaN	Volatility (12.1), Affordability pressure (11.0), Property-type fragmentation (9.7)
2025-10	E12000006	East of England	54.605	-2.740	6.717	1.306	17.278	3	1.9	NaN	Mortgage vs FTB price gap (11.0), Affordability pressure (9.4), Volatility (9.4)
2025-10	S92000003	Scotland	54.290	0.382	2.335	2.423	-24.795	1	3.3	NaN	Affordability pressure (12.6), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (12.1), Bubble risk (z-score) (11.3)
2025-10	E92000001	England	51.797	-5.660	-9.317	-4.343	10.933	3	1.4	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (15.1), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (9.9), Volatility (8.1)
2025-10	E12000009	South West	51.617	8.086	12.230	6.089	2.918	3	-1.3	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (14.0), Volatility (10.8), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (8.8)
2025-10	K02000001	United Kingdom	44.240	-4.147	4.347	2.191	4.617	3	1.7	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (20.3), Bubble risk (z-score) (8.3), Volatility (6.9)
2025-10	E12000008	South East	39.600	-0.809	-5.217	-17.583	1.193	2	0.7	NaN	Mortgage vs FTB price gap (13.2), Bubble risk (z-score) (5.7), Property-type fragmentation (5.4)
2025-10	E12000007	London	38.365	4.043	-7.188	-21.285	-2.521	3	-2.4	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (10.8), Monthly shock (abs z) (7.5), Drawdown from 36m peak (5.7)
2025-10	W92000004	Wales	31.851	-9.883	-17.305	-14.796	-38.016	2	1.5	NaN	Affordability pressure (7.9), FTB vs average price (7.1), Monthly shock (abs z) (6.5)

Top stressed areas (recent months comparison)

AreaCode	RegionName	2025-05	2025-06	2025-07	2025-08	2025-09	2025-10	change_1m	change_3m
E12000001	North East	65.736	84.029	82.874	84.724	67.992	85.557	17.565	2.683
E12000002	North West	57.322	68.849	65.549	65.702	61.253	64.353	3.100	-1.196
E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	68.840	61.911	58.964	55.405	72.372	64.465	-7.907	5.501
E12000004	East Midlands	54.402	50.512	64.126	69.088	63.252	55.795	-7.457	-8.331
E12000005	West Midlands Region	58.181	57.500	54.115	53.231	53.392	57.300	3.908	3.185
E12000006	East of England	60.111	52.237	47.888	58.284	57.345	54.605	-2.740	6.717
E12000007	London	54.452	50.268	45.553	48.759	34.322	38.365	4.043	-7.188
E12000008	South East	45.336	42.622	44.817	36.543	40.409	39.600	-0.809	-5.217
E12000009	South West	48.416	45.764	39.388	36.959	43.531	51.617	8.086	12.230
E92000001	England	56.211	57.130	61.114	53.995	57.457	51.797	-5.660	-9.317
K02000001	United Kingdom	34.097	44.744	39.892	42.318	48.387	44.240	-4.147	4.347
N92000002	Northern Ireland	29.313	32.412	30.795	36.725	56.797	56.452	-0.346	25.656
S92000003	Scotland	48.534	51.980	51.955	49.825	53.908	54.290	0.382	2.335
W92000004	Wales	51.574	39.302	49.156	48.472	41.734	31.851	-9.883	-17.305

Model-based deterioration risk (latest month)

Important: The model learns a label built from thresholds in this report, not external ground truth. Use it as a consistent scoring view.

train_rows	test_rows	cutoff_date	test_months	accuracy	precision	recall	roc_auc
378	126	2025-01-01	9	0.794	0.594	1.0	0.852

Date	AreaCode	RegionName	hsi_0_100
2025-10	E12000001	North East	85.557
2025-10	E12000002	North West	64.353
2025-10	E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	64.465
2025-10	E12000004	East Midlands	55.795
2025-10	E12000005	West Midlands Region	57.300
2025-10	E12000006	East of England	54.605
2025-10	E12000007	London	38.365
2025-10	E12000008	South East	39.600
2025-10	E12000009	South West	51.617
2025-10	E92000001	England	51.797
2025-10	K02000001	United Kingdom	44.240
2025-10	N92000002	Northern Ireland	56.452
2025-10	S92000003	Scotland	54.290
2025-10	W92000004	Wales	31.851

Clusters

Date	AreaCode	RegionName	cluster	affordability_pressure	volatility_12m	cash_dominance	mortgage_ftb_gap
2025-10-01	E12000006	East of England	0	-2.0	1.411	NaN	0.225
2025-10-01	E92000001	England	0	-2.3	1.396	NaN	0.214
2025-10-01	S92000003	Scotland	0	-1.0	1.342	NaN	0.265
2025-10-01	E12000008	South East	0	-3.1	0.846	NaN	0.275
2025-10-01	E12000001	North East	1	1.5	3.244	NaN	0.174
2025-10-01	E12000002	North West	1	-0.2	2.797	NaN	0.177
2025-10-01	E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	1	-0.3	2.445	NaN	0.160
2025-10-01	E12000004	East Midlands	2	-1.3	1.437	NaN	0.170
2025-10-01	N92000002	Northern Ireland	2	NaN	1.715	NaN	NaN
2025-10-01	K02000001	United Kingdom	2	NaN	1.077	NaN	NaN
2025-10-01	W92000004	Wales	2	-2.1	0.788	NaN	0.163
2025-10-01	E12000005	West Midlands Region	2	-0.9	1.621	NaN	0.182
2025-10-01	E12000007	London	3	-6.5	1.077	NaN	0.156
2025-10-01	E12000009	South West	3	-5.1	1.419	NaN	0.204

HSI composition

feature	label	weight	meaning
affordability_pressure	Affordability pressure	1.0	FTB 12m% change minus wage growth proxy; higher means affordability worsening.
liquidity_stress	Low sales volume	1.0	Low historical sales volume percentile (1.0 = worst); higher means thinner market liquidity.
volatility_12m	Volatility	1.0	Rolling 12-month standard deviation of monthly price changes; higher means more unstable pricing.
fragmentation_12m_std	Property-type fragmentation	0.8	Dispersion of 12m% changes across property types; higher means a segmented market.
mortgage_volume_drop	Mortgage volume drop (YoY)	0.8	-(mortgage sales volume YoY%); higher means mortgage activity falling faster.
price_volume_divergence	Price-volume divergence	0.8	Price YoY% minus volume YoY%; high values can mean prices up on falling liquidity.
mortgage_ftb_gap	Mortgage vs FTB price gap	0.7	MortgagePrice / FTBPrice - 1; higher means financed buyers are paying a larger premium over FTB segment.
bubble_risk_z	Bubble risk (z-score)	0.6	Z-score of YoY price change vs long-run baseline; high values indicate unusually hot growth for that area.
cash_dominance	Cash dominance	0.6	CashSalesVolume / (CashSalesVolume + MortgageSalesVolume); higher suggests mortgage constraints or cash-driven pricing.
cash_dominance_change_12m	Cash dominance change (12m)	0.6	Change in cash dominance vs 12 months ago; rising implies worsening mortgage conditions.
repossession_rate_12m_per_1000_sales	Repossession rate (12m per 1k sales)	0.6	Repossession 12m sum / sales volume 12m sum * 1000; higher suggests rising financial distress.
ftb_to_avg_price	FTB vs average price	0.5	FTBPrice / AveragePrice; higher means first-time buyers are paying closer to the overall average.
new_old_premium	New vs old premium	0.4	NewPrice / OldPrice - 1; higher means new builds are priced at a larger premium.
shock_1m_abs_z	Monthly shock (abs z)	0.4	Absolute z-score of the 1m% change vs recent history; higher means a more unusual monthly move.
drawdown_36m	Drawdown from 36m peak	0.3	(rolling peak - level) / rolling peak over 36m; higher means larger retreat from recent peak.