UK HPI Housing Market Stress Report

Created: 2026-03-12 22:21:59 UTC | Latest month: 2025-12

Scope note: UK HPI is augmented with repossession counts (England regions, England, Wales) where available (coverage: 2016-05 to 2025-10; 11 areas).

Disclaimer: This report responds to comments on the Reddit thread; no commercial use allowed and the work remained a fun exercise. See GitHub and JS Labs for the wider series.

Contents

Overview
Plain-English guide
National snapshot
Market quadrants
Top stressed areas
Model risk
Clusters
HSI composition
Charts

Overview

area_scope	areas	months	start_month	end_month	analysis_lookback_months	report_lookback_months	repossession_start_month	repossession_end_month	repossession_areas
regions_and_countries	14	36	2023-01	2025-12	36	12	2016-05	2025-10	11

Plain-English guide

HSI is a stress score from 0 to 100. Higher means more stress.
Repossession counts are included for England regions/England/Wales (coverage: 2016-05 to 2025-10; 11 areas).
If prices hold up but volumes fall, the market is thin. Thin markets can turn quickly.
If mortgage volumes fall and cash share rises, financing is getting harder or cash is dominating the price.
If first-time buyer prices grow faster than wages, affordability is getting worse.
If volatility rises, pricing is less stable.
If property types diverge (fragmentation), the market is segmented and uneven.
Volume-related fields often lag the latest month. Use the latest_month column in the national snapshot.
Analysis coverage: 2023-01 to 2025-12. Charts and tables coverage: 2025-01 to 2025-12.

Stress signal rules (simple checklist)

signal	rule	interpretation
affordability pressure	affordability_pressure >= 2.0	FTB price growth is materially above the wage growth proxy.
low volume	liquidity_stress >= 0.80	Sales volume is in the bottom part of the area's history (thin market).
cash dominance	cash_dominance >= 0.60 or cash_dominance_hist_pct >= 0.80	Cash share is high; can indicate mortgage constraints or cash-led pricing.
mortgage volume drop	mortgage_volume_drop >= 10.0	Mortgage transaction activity is falling sharply year-over-year.
volatility high	volatility_hist_pct >= 0.80	Monthly price changes are unusually unstable for that area.
fragmentation high	fragmentation_hist_pct >= 0.80	Property types diverge unusually (segmented market).
bubble risk	bubble_risk_z >= 2.0	YoY growth is unusually high vs long-run baseline for that area.
price below inflation	pct_12m < 3.0	Price growth is below the inflation proxy (real-terms decline risk).

National snapshot (latest month)

period	metric	latest_month	latest_value	stress_percentile	meaning
2023-01 to 2025-12	HSI (national)	2025-12	54.185	91.667	Composite stress score (0-100). Higher means more stress.
2023-01 to 2025-12	Price YoY (median)	2025-12	2.400	40.278	Low (below inflation) can indicate real-terms declines.
2023-01 to 2025-12	Sales volume YoY (median)	2025-10	-32.381	90.909	Falling volumes indicate a thinner market and harder financing.
2023-01 to 2025-12	Cash dominance (median)	2025-10	0.275	17.647	High cash share can mean mortgage market stress or cash-driven pricing.
2023-01 to 2025-12	Volatility (median)	2025-12	1.406	100.000	Higher volatility means more unstable monthly pricing.
2023-01 to 2025-12	Repossession rate (England, 12m per 1k)	2025-10	5.638	3.448	Higher means more repossessions per 1k sales (12m rolling sums).
2023-01 to 2025-12	Repossessions YoY% (England)	2025-10	-80.127	2.941	Higher means repossessions are rising faster year-over-year.
2023-01 to 2025-12	Affordability pressure (median)	2025-12	-1.500	66.667	FTB price growth above wage proxy; higher means harder for new buyers.
2023-01 to 2025-12	Mortgage volume drop (median)	2025-10	76.142	100.000	Higher means mortgage transaction activity falling faster (YoY).
2023-01 to 2025-12	Fragmentation (median)	2025-12	1.660	80.556	Higher means property types diverge (segmented market).

How widespread are the stress signals?

Date	signal	share_pct
2025-12	volatility high	64.286
2025-12	fragmentation high	64.286
2025-12	price below inflation	57.143
2025-12	affordability pressure	0.000
2025-12	low volume	0.000
2025-12	cash dominance	0.000
2025-12	mortgage volume drop	0.000
2025-12	bubble risk	0.000

Market conditions quadrants (2025-01 to 2025-12)

AreaCode	RegionName	start_quadrant	end_quadrant	quadrant_switches	valid_months	dominant_quadrant	dominant_share_pct	healthy_share_pct	thin_divergent_share_pct	contracting_share_pct
E12000007	London	Healthy	Contracting	2	10	Thin/Divergent	40.0	30.0	40.0	30.0
E12000009	South West	Healthy	Contracting	3	10	Thin/Divergent	50.0	30.0	50.0	20.0
E12000006	East of England	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	2	10	Thin/Divergent	60.0	30.0	60.0	10.0
E12000004	East Midlands	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	70.0	30.0	70.0	0.0
E92000001	England	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	70.0	30.0	70.0	0.0
E12000001	North East	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	70.0	30.0	70.0	0.0
E12000002	North West	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	70.0	30.0	70.0	0.0
N92000002	Northern Ireland	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	70.0	30.0	70.0	0.0
E12000008	South East	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	70.0	30.0	70.0	0.0
K02000001	United Kingdom	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	70.0	30.0	70.0	0.0
E12000005	West Midlands Region	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	70.0	30.0	70.0	0.0
E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	70.0	30.0	70.0	0.0
S92000003	Scotland	Healthy	Healthy	2	10	Healthy	70.0	70.0	30.0	0.0
W92000004	Wales	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	60.0	40.0	60.0	0.0

Changepoints (HSI trend)

changepoint_date

Top stressed areas (latest month)

Date	AreaCode	RegionName	hsi_0_100	hsi_change_1m	hsi_change_3m	hsi_change_6m	hsi_change_12m	stress_flags_total	pct_12m	sales_volume_yoy_pct	top_drivers
2025-12	E12000002	North West	66.532	-1.842	6.369	1.737	6.464	1	4.5	NaN	Volatility (17.5), Affordability pressure (16.5), Bubble risk (z-score) (8.9)
2025-12	E12000001	North East	66.420	-19.429	-8.298	-12.046	-11.798	1	4.6	NaN	Volatility (18.9), Affordability pressure (14.2), FTB vs average price (9.4)
2025-12	S92000003	Scotland	65.701	8.805	20.638	16.164	-8.309	1	4.9	NaN	Affordability pressure (16.5), Property-type fragmentation (12.9), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (12.1)
2025-12	E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	60.377	-4.672	-4.856	3.136	11.045	1	3.3	NaN	Volatility (16.2), Affordability pressure (12.6), Property-type fragmentation (9.7)
2025-12	E92000001	England	58.491	-1.662	-0.195	2.186	12.806	3	1.7	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (14.0), Volatility (10.8), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (9.9)
2025-12	W92000004	Wales	57.210	28.369	2.630	17.836	-5.184	0	5.0	NaN	Affordability pressure (18.9), Bubble risk (z-score) (11.3), Monthly shock (abs z) (7.5)
2025-12	E12000005	West Midlands Region	55.144	12.062	-5.727	-5.350	4.577	2	2.0	NaN	Volatility (13.5), Affordability pressure (9.4), Property-type fragmentation (8.6)
2025-12	K02000001	United Kingdom	53.226	6.682	13.468	10.773	-0.615	3	2.4	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (20.3), Bubble risk (z-score) (11.1), Volatility (9.2)
2025-12	E12000004	East Midlands	51.011	-6.087	-5.006	-1.717	-1.456	3	2.4	NaN	Volatility (14.8), Affordability pressure (11.0), Property-type fragmentation (7.5)
2025-12	E12000009	South West	50.090	-5.795	3.512	-2.464	9.535	3	0.3	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (10.8), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (8.8), Volatility (8.1)
2025-12	E12000006	East of England	45.530	-4.155	-5.941	-8.122	10.183	3	1.5	NaN	Mortgage vs FTB price gap (11.0), Volatility (9.4), Bubble risk (z-score) (7.3)
2025-12	N92000002	Northern Ireland	41.820	-1.498	6.443	6.510	-12.560	0	7.5	NaN	Volatility (20.7), Bubble risk (z-score) (16.6), Property-type fragmentation (1.8)
2025-12	E12000007	London	39.712	-5.121	-5.110	-9.377	-3.884	3	-1.0	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (15.1), Volatility (6.7), Drawdown from 36m peak (5.7)
2025-12	E12000008	South East	36.680	-3.504	-7.875	-10.728	-18.193	2	0.0	NaN	Mortgage vs FTB price gap (13.2), Property-type fragmentation (6.5), Drawdown from 36m peak (5.3)

Top stressed areas (recent months comparison)

AreaCode	RegionName	2025-07	2025-08	2025-09	2025-10	2025-11	2025-12	change_1m	change_3m
E12000001	North East	76.980	84.335	74.717	82.190	85.849	66.420	-19.429	-8.298
E12000002	North West	70.429	69.745	60.162	52.583	68.374	66.532	-1.842	6.369
E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	62.357	60.070	65.233	69.146	65.049	60.377	-4.672	-4.856
E12000004	East Midlands	64.810	71.634	56.017	50.241	57.098	51.011	-6.087	-5.006
E12000005	West Midlands Region	56.910	54.622	60.871	60.010	43.082	55.144	12.062	-5.727
E12000006	East of England	48.041	56.304	51.471	51.283	49.686	45.530	-4.155	-5.941
E12000007	London	44.693	46.402	44.822	53.262	44.834	39.712	-5.121	-5.110
E12000008	South East	47.703	34.327	44.556	48.445	40.184	36.680	-3.504	-7.875
E12000009	South West	45.458	43.018	46.578	44.998	55.885	50.090	-5.795	3.512
E92000001	England	60.171	59.417	58.686	59.028	60.153	58.491	-1.662	-0.195
K02000001	United Kingdom	44.879	43.127	39.757	40.701	46.544	53.226	6.682	13.468
N92000002	Northern Ireland	25.741	32.210	35.377	30.795	43.318	41.820	-1.498	6.443
S92000003	Scotland	41.416	42.343	45.063	48.747	56.896	65.701	8.805	20.638
W92000004	Wales	45.940	40.270	54.580	44.950	28.841	57.210	28.369	2.630

Model-based deterioration risk (latest month)

Important: The model learns a label built from thresholds in this report, not external ground truth. Use it as a consistent scoring view.

train_rows	test_rows	cutoff_date	test_months	accuracy	precision	recall	roc_auc
378	126	2025-03-01	9	0.754	0.646	0.944	0.761

Date	AreaCode	RegionName	hsi_0_100	deterioration_risk
2025-12	E12000002	North West	66.532	0.004
2025-12	E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	60.377	0.004
2025-12	E12000001	North East	66.420	0.004
2025-12	E12000006	East of England	45.530	0.003
2025-12	E92000001	England	58.491	0.003
2025-12	E12000005	West Midlands Region	55.144	0.001
2025-12	W92000004	Wales	57.210	0.000
2025-12	E12000004	East Midlands	51.011	0.000
2025-12	E12000007	London	39.712	0.000
2025-12	E12000008	South East	36.680	0.000
2025-12	E12000009	South West	50.090	0.000
2025-12	N92000002	Northern Ireland	41.820	0.000
2025-12	K02000001	United Kingdom	53.226	0.000
2025-12	S92000003	Scotland	65.701	0.000

Clusters

Date	AreaCode	RegionName	cluster	affordability_pressure	volatility_12m	cash_dominance	mortgage_ftb_gap
2025-12-01	E12000007	London	0	-5.6	1.301	NaN	0.158
2025-12-01	E12000004	East Midlands	1	-1.3	1.566	NaN	0.172
2025-12-01	N92000002	Northern Ireland	1	NaN	1.463	NaN	NaN
2025-12-01	K02000001	United Kingdom	1	NaN	1.134	NaN	NaN
2025-12-01	W92000004	Wales	1	1.4	0.857	NaN	0.165
2025-12-01	E12000005	West Midlands Region	1	-1.7	1.504	NaN	0.184
2025-12-01	E12000006	East of England	2	-2.3	1.402	NaN	0.227
2025-12-01	E92000001	England	2	-2.2	1.411	NaN	0.216
2025-12-01	S92000003	Scotland	2	0.9	1.124	NaN	0.265
2025-12-01	E12000008	South East	2	-3.9	0.822	NaN	0.278
2025-12-01	E12000009	South West	2	-3.5	1.402	NaN	0.207
2025-12-01	E12000001	North East	3	0.8	3.429	NaN	0.178
2025-12-01	E12000002	North West	3	0.9	2.672	NaN	0.179
2025-12-01	E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	3	-0.3	2.514	NaN	0.164

HSI composition

feature	label	weight	meaning
affordability_pressure	Affordability pressure	1.0	FTB 12m% change minus wage growth proxy; higher means affordability worsening.
liquidity_stress	Low sales volume	1.0	Low historical sales volume percentile (1.0 = worst); higher means thinner market liquidity.
volatility_12m	Volatility	1.0	Rolling 12-month standard deviation of monthly price changes; higher means more unstable pricing.
fragmentation_12m_std	Property-type fragmentation	0.8	Dispersion of 12m% changes across property types; higher means a segmented market.
mortgage_volume_drop	Mortgage volume drop (YoY)	0.8	-(mortgage sales volume YoY%); higher means mortgage activity falling faster.
price_volume_divergence	Price-volume divergence	0.8	Price YoY% minus volume YoY%; high values can mean prices up on falling liquidity.
mortgage_ftb_gap	Mortgage vs FTB price gap	0.7	MortgagePrice / FTBPrice - 1; higher means financed buyers are paying a larger premium over FTB segment.
bubble_risk_z	Bubble risk (z-score)	0.6	Z-score of YoY price change vs long-run baseline; high values indicate unusually hot growth for that area.
cash_dominance	Cash dominance	0.6	CashSalesVolume / (CashSalesVolume + MortgageSalesVolume); higher suggests mortgage constraints or cash-driven pricing.
cash_dominance_change_12m	Cash dominance change (12m)	0.6	Change in cash dominance vs 12 months ago; rising implies worsening mortgage conditions.
repossession_rate_12m_per_1000_sales	Repossession rate (12m per 1k sales)	0.6	Repossession 12m sum / sales volume 12m sum * 1000; higher suggests rising financial distress.
ftb_to_avg_price	FTB vs average price	0.5	FTBPrice / AveragePrice; higher means first-time buyers are paying closer to the overall average.
new_old_premium	New vs old premium	0.4	NewPrice / OldPrice - 1; higher means new builds are priced at a larger premium.
shock_1m_abs_z	Monthly shock (abs z)	0.4	Absolute z-score of the 1m% change vs recent history; higher means a more unusual monthly move.
drawdown_36m	Drawdown from 36m peak	0.3	(rolling peak - level) / rolling peak over 36m; higher means larger retreat from recent peak.