UK HPI Housing Market Stress Report

Created: 2026-01-28 13:15:17 UTC | Latest month: 2025-11

Scope note: UK HPI is augmented with repossession counts (England regions, England, Wales) where available (coverage: 2016-05 to 2025-09; 11 areas).

Disclaimer: This report responds to comments on the Reddit thread; no commercial use allowed and the work remained a fun exercise. See GitHub and JS Labs for the wider series.

Contents

Overview
Plain-English guide
National snapshot
Market quadrants
Top stressed areas
Model risk
Clusters
HSI composition
Charts

Overview

area_scope	areas	months	start_month	end_month	analysis_lookback_months	report_lookback_months	repossession_start_month	repossession_end_month	repossession_areas
regions_and_countries	14	36	2022-12	2025-11	36	12	2016-05	2025-09	11

Plain-English guide

HSI is a stress score from 0 to 100. Higher means more stress.
Repossession counts are included for England regions/England/Wales (coverage: 2016-05 to 2025-09; 11 areas).
If prices hold up but volumes fall, the market is thin. Thin markets can turn quickly.
If mortgage volumes fall and cash share rises, financing is getting harder or cash is dominating the price.
If first-time buyer prices grow faster than wages, affordability is getting worse.
If volatility rises, pricing is less stable.
If property types diverge (fragmentation), the market is segmented and uneven.
Volume-related fields often lag the latest month. Use the latest_month column in the national snapshot.
Analysis coverage: 2022-12 to 2025-11. Charts and tables coverage: 2024-12 to 2025-11.

Stress signal rules (simple checklist)

signal	rule	interpretation
affordability pressure	affordability_pressure >= 2.0	FTB price growth is materially above the wage growth proxy.
low volume	liquidity_stress >= 0.80	Sales volume is in the bottom part of the area's history (thin market).
cash dominance	cash_dominance >= 0.60 or cash_dominance_hist_pct >= 0.80	Cash share is high; can indicate mortgage constraints or cash-led pricing.
mortgage volume drop	mortgage_volume_drop >= 10.0	Mortgage transaction activity is falling sharply year-over-year.
volatility high	volatility_hist_pct >= 0.80	Monthly price changes are unusually unstable for that area.
fragmentation high	fragmentation_hist_pct >= 0.80	Property types diverge unusually (segmented market).
bubble risk	bubble_risk_z >= 2.0	YoY growth is unusually high vs long-run baseline for that area.
price below inflation	pct_12m < 3.0	Price growth is below the inflation proxy (real-terms decline risk).

National snapshot (latest month)

period	metric	latest_month	latest_value	stress_percentile	meaning
2022-12 to 2025-11	HSI (national)	2025-11	52.864	86.111	Composite stress score (0-100). Higher means more stress.
2022-12 to 2025-11	Price YoY (median)	2025-11	2.350	37.500	Low (below inflation) can indicate real-terms declines.
2022-12 to 2025-11	Sales volume YoY (median)	2025-09	-33.257	90.909	Falling volumes indicate a thinner market and harder financing.
2022-12 to 2025-11	Cash dominance (median)	2025-09	0.271	17.647	High cash share can mean mortgage market stress or cash-driven pricing.
2022-12 to 2025-11	Volatility (median)	2025-11	1.384	90.909	Higher volatility means more unstable monthly pricing.
2022-12 to 2025-11	Repossession rate (England, 12m per 1k)	2025-09	5.587	3.448	Higher means more repossessions per 1k sales (12m rolling sums).
2022-12 to 2025-11	Repossessions YoY% (England)	2025-09	-82.793	2.941	Higher means repossessions are rising faster year-over-year.
2022-12 to 2025-11	Affordability pressure (median)	2025-11	-1.850	58.333	FTB price growth above wage proxy; higher means harder for new buyers.
2022-12 to 2025-11	Mortgage volume drop (median)	2025-09	74.993	100.000	Higher means mortgage transaction activity falling faster (YoY).
2022-12 to 2025-11	Fragmentation (median)	2025-11	1.363	75.000	Higher means property types diverge (segmented market).

How widespread are the stress signals?

Date	signal	share_pct
2025-11	volatility high	64.286
2025-11	price below inflation	64.286
2025-11	fragmentation high	28.571
2025-11	affordability pressure	7.143
2025-11	low volume	0.000
2025-11	cash dominance	0.000
2025-11	mortgage volume drop	0.000
2025-11	bubble risk	0.000

Market conditions quadrants (2024-12 to 2025-11)

AreaCode	RegionName	start_quadrant	end_quadrant	quadrant_switches	valid_months	dominant_quadrant	dominant_share_pct	healthy_share_pct	thin_divergent_share_pct	contracting_share_pct
E12000007	London	Healthy	Contracting	2	10	Healthy	40.0	40.0	40.0	20.0
E12000009	South West	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	2	10	Thin/Divergent	50.0	40.0	50.0	10.0
S92000003	Scotland	Healthy	Healthy	2	10	Healthy	70.0	70.0	30.0	0.0
E12000004	East Midlands	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	60.0	40.0	60.0	0.0
E12000006	East of England	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	60.0	40.0	60.0	0.0
E92000001	England	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	60.0	40.0	60.0	0.0
E12000001	North East	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	60.0	40.0	60.0	0.0
E12000002	North West	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	60.0	40.0	60.0	0.0
N92000002	Northern Ireland	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	60.0	40.0	60.0	0.0
E12000008	South East	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	60.0	40.0	60.0	0.0
K02000001	United Kingdom	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	60.0	40.0	60.0	0.0
W92000004	Wales	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	60.0	40.0	60.0	0.0
E12000005	West Midlands Region	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	60.0	40.0	60.0	0.0
E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Thin/Divergent	60.0	40.0	60.0	0.0

Changepoints (HSI trend)

changepoint_date

Top stressed areas (latest month)

Date	AreaCode	RegionName	hsi_0_100	hsi_change_1m	hsi_change_3m	hsi_change_6m	hsi_change_12m	stress_flags_total	pct_12m	sales_volume_yoy_pct	top_drivers
2025-11	E12000001	North East	83.827	-3.347	-2.959	20.355	7.637	3	6.8	NaN	Affordability pressure (18.9), Volatility (18.9), Property-type fragmentation (12.9)
2025-11	E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	66.936	-0.764	9.117	-1.043	1.656	1	3.7	NaN	Volatility (16.2), Affordability pressure (14.2), Property-type fragmentation (11.9)
2025-11	N92000002	Northern Ireland	66.014	9.217	29.491	29.828	5.232	0	7.1	NaN	Volatility (25.3), Bubble risk (z-score) (16.6), Monthly shock (abs z) (12.0)
2025-11	E12000002	North West	62.624	-2.269	-7.145	4.206	4.453	1	4.1	NaN	Volatility (17.5), Affordability pressure (15.7), FTB vs average price (8.6)
2025-11	E92000001	England	58.266	4.605	4.165	2.833	6.841	3	2.2	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (14.0), Affordability pressure (11.0), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (9.9)
2025-11	E12000009	South West	55.907	6.447	17.039	8.941	9.082	1	1.9	NaN	Bubble risk (z-score) (8.9), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (8.8), Affordability pressure (8.6)
2025-11	E12000006	East of England	53.077	-2.201	-5.136	-7.741	14.583	2	1.8	NaN	Volatility (12.1), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (11.0), Bubble risk (z-score) (8.1)
2025-11	E12000004	East Midlands	52.650	-4.605	-17.499	-0.172	15.094	3	2.7	NaN	Affordability pressure (12.6), Volatility (10.8), Property-type fragmentation (9.7)
2025-11	S92000003	Scotland	52.336	1.527	9.241	5.156	-16.223	0	4.5	NaN	Affordability pressure (17.3), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (12.1), Bubble risk (z-score) (11.3)
2025-11	E12000005	West Midlands Region	42.902	-13.522	-11.531	-12.014	-8.596	2	2.1	NaN	Volatility (13.5), Affordability pressure (8.6), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (7.7)
2025-11	E12000007	London	42.677	4.582	-5.280	-13.672	-6.589	3	-1.2	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (15.1), Monthly shock (abs z) (7.5), Drawdown from 36m peak (5.7)
2025-11	E12000008	South East	40.970	0.427	5.654	-6.911	-6.442	1	1.0	NaN	Mortgage vs FTB price gap (13.2), Monthly shock (abs z) (6.5), Property-type fragmentation (5.4)
2025-11	K02000001	United Kingdom	38.479	1.152	-1.548	-0.874	-12.734	2	2.5	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (14.7), Bubble risk (z-score) (9.7), Volatility (6.9)
2025-11	W92000004	Wales	35.198	3.055	-10.188	-15.233	-18.934	1	0.7	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (10.8), FTB vs average price (7.1), Monthly shock (abs z) (4.3)

Top stressed areas (recent months comparison)

AreaCode	RegionName	2025-06	2025-07	2025-08	2025-09	2025-10	2025-11	change_1m	change_3m
E12000001	North East	84.972	78.253	86.787	74.752	87.174	83.827	-3.347	-2.959
E12000002	North West	67.341	70.170	69.769	60.787	64.892	62.624	-2.269	-7.145
E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	57.383	60.778	57.819	60.235	67.700	66.936	-0.764	9.117
E12000004	East Midlands	51.243	62.676	70.149	50.500	57.255	52.650	-4.605	-17.499
E12000005	West Midlands Region	59.044	56.578	54.433	62.236	56.424	42.902	-13.522	-11.531
E12000006	East of England	53.805	46.863	58.213	52.414	55.279	53.077	-2.201	-5.136
E12000007	London	50.009	46.897	47.958	48.193	38.095	42.677	4.582	-5.280
E12000008	South East	43.023	48.683	35.317	44.157	40.544	40.970	0.427	5.654
E12000009	South West	49.560	42.417	38.869	45.540	49.461	55.907	6.447	17.039
E92000001	England	56.824	59.428	54.101	57.884	53.661	58.266	4.605	4.165
K02000001	United Kingdom	40.970	45.013	40.027	43.666	37.327	38.479	1.152	-1.548
N92000002	Northern Ireland	34.569	28.976	36.523	39.151	56.797	66.014	9.217	29.491
S92000003	Scotland	51.454	45.614	43.095	48.446	50.809	52.336	1.527	9.241
W92000004	Wales	38.267	45.032	45.386	53.778	32.143	35.198	3.055	-10.188

Model-based deterioration risk (latest month)

Important: The model learns a label built from thresholds in this report, not external ground truth. Use it as a consistent scoring view.

train_rows	test_rows	cutoff_date	test_months	accuracy	precision	recall	roc_auc
378	126	2025-02-01	9	0.746	0.584	1.0	0.802

Date	AreaCode	RegionName	hsi_0_100
2025-11	E12000001	North East	83.827
2025-11	E12000002	North West	62.624
2025-11	E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	66.936
2025-11	E12000004	East Midlands	52.650
2025-11	E12000005	West Midlands Region	42.902
2025-11	E12000006	East of England	53.077
2025-11	E12000007	London	42.677
2025-11	E12000008	South East	40.970
2025-11	E12000009	South West	55.907
2025-11	E92000001	England	58.266
2025-11	K02000001	United Kingdom	38.479
2025-11	N92000002	Northern Ireland	66.014
2025-11	S92000003	Scotland	52.336
2025-11	W92000004	Wales	35.198

Clusters

Date	AreaCode	RegionName	cluster	affordability_pressure	volatility_12m	cash_dominance	mortgage_ftb_gap
2025-11-01	E12000004	East Midlands	0	-1.2	1.395	NaN	0.172
2025-11-01	E12000006	East of England	0	-2.3	1.400	NaN	0.226
2025-11-01	E92000001	England	0	-1.8	1.373	NaN	0.216
2025-11-01	N92000002	Northern Ireland	0	NaN	1.802	NaN	NaN
2025-11-01	E12000009	South West	0	-1.9	1.267	NaN	0.205
2025-11-01	K02000001	United Kingdom	0	NaN	1.109	NaN	NaN
2025-11-01	E12000005	West Midlands Region	0	-1.9	1.559	NaN	0.185
2025-11-01	E12000001	North East	1	2.7	3.319	NaN	0.178
2025-11-01	E12000002	North West	1	0.4	2.742	NaN	0.178
2025-11-01	E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	1	0.1	2.508	NaN	0.163
2025-11-01	E12000007	London	2	-5.7	1.143	NaN	0.158
2025-11-01	W92000004	Wales	2	-3.0	0.675	NaN	0.165
2025-11-01	S92000003	Scotland	3	0.8	1.201	NaN	0.260
2025-11-01	E12000008	South East	3	-3.0	0.800	NaN	0.277

HSI composition

feature	label	weight	meaning
affordability_pressure	Affordability pressure	1.0	FTB 12m% change minus wage growth proxy; higher means affordability worsening.
liquidity_stress	Low sales volume	1.0	Low historical sales volume percentile (1.0 = worst); higher means thinner market liquidity.
volatility_12m	Volatility	1.0	Rolling 12-month standard deviation of monthly price changes; higher means more unstable pricing.
fragmentation_12m_std	Property-type fragmentation	0.8	Dispersion of 12m% changes across property types; higher means a segmented market.
mortgage_volume_drop	Mortgage volume drop (YoY)	0.8	-(mortgage sales volume YoY%); higher means mortgage activity falling faster.
price_volume_divergence	Price-volume divergence	0.8	Price YoY% minus volume YoY%; high values can mean prices up on falling liquidity.
mortgage_ftb_gap	Mortgage vs FTB price gap	0.7	MortgagePrice / FTBPrice - 1; higher means financed buyers are paying a larger premium over FTB segment.
bubble_risk_z	Bubble risk (z-score)	0.6	Z-score of YoY price change vs long-run baseline; high values indicate unusually hot growth for that area.
cash_dominance	Cash dominance	0.6	CashSalesVolume / (CashSalesVolume + MortgageSalesVolume); higher suggests mortgage constraints or cash-driven pricing.
cash_dominance_change_12m	Cash dominance change (12m)	0.6	Change in cash dominance vs 12 months ago; rising implies worsening mortgage conditions.
repossession_rate_12m_per_1000_sales	Repossession rate (12m per 1k sales)	0.6	Repossession 12m sum / sales volume 12m sum * 1000; higher suggests rising financial distress.
ftb_to_avg_price	FTB vs average price	0.5	FTBPrice / AveragePrice; higher means first-time buyers are paying closer to the overall average.
new_old_premium	New vs old premium	0.4	NewPrice / OldPrice - 1; higher means new builds are priced at a larger premium.
shock_1m_abs_z	Monthly shock (abs z)	0.4	Absolute z-score of the 1m% change vs recent history; higher means a more unusual monthly move.
drawdown_36m	Drawdown from 36m peak	0.3	(rolling peak - level) / rolling peak over 36m; higher means larger retreat from recent peak.