UK HPI Housing Market Stress Report

Created: 2025-12-12 20:11:34 UTC | Latest month: 2025-08

Scope note: UK HPI is augmented with repossession counts (England regions, England, Wales) where available (coverage: 2016-05 to 2025-06; 11 areas).

Disclaimer: This report responds to comments on the Reddit thread; no commercial use allowed and the work remained a fun exercise. See GitHub and JS Labs for the wider series.

Contents

Overview
Plain-English guide
National snapshot
Market quadrants
Top stressed areas
Model risk
Clusters
HSI composition
Charts

Overview

area_scope	areas	months	start_month	end_month	analysis_lookback_months	report_lookback_months	repossession_start_month	repossession_end_month	repossession_areas
regions_and_countries	15	36	2022-09	2025-08	36	12	2016-05	2025-06	11

Plain-English guide

HSI is a stress score from 0 to 100. Higher means more stress.
Repossession counts are included for England regions/England/Wales (coverage: 2016-05 to 2025-06; 11 areas).
If prices hold up but volumes fall, the market is thin. Thin markets can turn quickly.
If mortgage volumes fall and cash share rises, financing is getting harder or cash is dominating the price.
If first-time buyer prices grow faster than wages, affordability is getting worse.
If volatility rises, pricing is less stable.
If property types diverge (fragmentation), the market is segmented and uneven.
Volume-related fields often lag the latest month. Use the latest_month column in the national snapshot.
Data is filtered to the last 36 months for analysis, and the last 12 months for charts and tables.

Stress signal rules (simple checklist)

signal	rule	interpretation
affordability pressure	affordability_pressure >= 2.0	FTB price growth is materially above the wage growth proxy.
low volume	liquidity_stress >= 0.80	Sales volume is in the bottom part of the area's history (thin market).
cash dominance	cash_dominance >= 0.60 or cash_dominance_hist_pct >= 0.80	Cash share is high; can indicate mortgage constraints or cash-led pricing.
mortgage volume drop	mortgage_volume_drop >= 10.0	Mortgage transaction activity is falling sharply year-over-year.
volatility high	volatility_hist_pct >= 0.80	Monthly price changes are unusually unstable for that area.
fragmentation high	fragmentation_hist_pct >= 0.80	Property types diverge unusually (segmented market).
bubble risk	bubble_risk_z >= 2.0	YoY growth is unusually high vs long-run baseline for that area.
price below inflation	pct_12m < 3.0	Price growth is below the inflation proxy (real-terms decline risk).

National snapshot (latest month)

period	metric	latest_month	latest_value	stress_percentile	meaning
2022-09 to 2025-08	HSI (national)	2025-08	55.739	94.444	Composite stress score (0-100). Higher means more stress.
2022-09 to 2025-08	Price YoY (median)	2025-08	3.000	34.722	Low (below inflation) can indicate real-terms declines.
2022-09 to 2025-08	Sales volume YoY (median)	2025-06	-37.317	86.364	Falling volumes indicate a thinner market and harder financing.
2022-09 to 2025-08	Cash dominance (median)	2025-06	0.268	5.882	High cash share can mean mortgage market stress or cash-driven pricing.
2022-09 to 2025-08	Volatility (median)	2025-08	1.342	90.909	Higher volatility means more unstable monthly pricing.
2022-09 to 2025-08	Repossession rate (England, 12m per 1k)	2025-06	4.980	3.448	Higher means more repossessions per 1k sales (12m rolling sums).
2022-09 to 2025-08	Repossessions YoY% (England)	2025-06	-80.851	2.941	Higher means repossessions are rising faster year-over-year.
2022-09 to 2025-08	Affordability pressure (median)	2025-08	-0.950	63.889	FTB price growth above wage proxy; higher means harder for new buyers.
2022-09 to 2025-08	Mortgage volume drop (median)	2025-06	71.285	100.000	Higher means mortgage transaction activity falling faster (YoY).
2022-09 to 2025-08	Fragmentation (median)	2025-08	1.861	88.889	Higher means property types diverge (segmented market).

How widespread are the stress signals?

Date	signal	share_pct
2025-08	fragmentation high	85.714
2025-08	volatility high	78.571
2025-08	price below inflation	42.857
2025-08	affordability pressure	7.143
2025-08	low volume	0.000
2025-08	cash dominance	0.000
2025-08	mortgage volume drop	0.000
2025-08	bubble risk	0.000

Market conditions quadrants (last 12 months)

AreaCode	RegionName	start_quadrant	end_quadrant	quadrant_switches	valid_months	dominant_quadrant	dominant_share_pct	healthy_share_pct	thin_divergent_share_pct	recovery_distress_share_pct
N92000001	Northern Ireland	Healthy	Healthy	0	3	Healthy	100.0	100.0	0.0	0.0
E12000004	East Midlands	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	70.0	70.0	30.0	0.0
E92000001	England	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	70.0	70.0	30.0	0.0
E12000007	London	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	70.0	70.0	30.0	0.0
E12000001	North East	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	70.0	70.0	30.0	0.0
E12000002	North West	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	70.0	70.0	30.0	0.0
N92000002	Northern Ireland	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	70.0	70.0	30.0	0.0
E12000008	South East	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	70.0	70.0	30.0	0.0
K02000001	United Kingdom	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	70.0	70.0	30.0	0.0
E12000005	West Midlands Region	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	70.0	70.0	30.0	0.0
E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	Healthy	Thin/Divergent	1	10	Healthy	70.0	70.0	30.0	0.0
E12000006	East of England	Recovery/Distress	Thin/Divergent	2	10	Healthy	60.0	60.0	30.0	10.0
E12000009	South West	Recovery/Distress	Thin/Divergent	2	10	Healthy	60.0	60.0	30.0	10.0
W92000004	Wales	Recovery/Distress	Thin/Divergent	2	10	Healthy	60.0	60.0	30.0	10.0
S92000003	Scotland	Thin/Divergent	Healthy	3	10	Healthy	60.0	60.0	40.0	0.0

Changepoints (HSI trend)

changepoint_date

Top stressed areas (latest month)

Date	AreaCode	RegionName	hsi_0_100	hsi_change_1m	hsi_change_3m	hsi_change_6m	hsi_change_12m	stress_flags_total	pct_12m	sales_volume_yoy_pct	top_drivers
2025-08	E12000001	North East	87.062	1.101	15.716	-0.267	32.458	3	6.6	NaN	Affordability pressure (18.9), Volatility (18.9), Property-type fragmentation (15.1)
2025-08	E12000002	North West	69.048	-0.427	16.346	4.536	13.532	1	4.5	NaN	Volatility (17.5), Affordability pressure (17.3), FTB vs average price (8.6)
2025-08	E12000004	East Midlands	66.599	5.166	8.991	10.832	27.459	2	4.4	NaN	Affordability pressure (15.7), Property-type fragmentation (11.9), Volatility (10.8)
2025-08	E92000001	England	62.624	4.852	7.615	14.157	15.423	3	2.9	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (12.9), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (9.9), Affordability pressure (9.4)
2025-08	E12000005	West Midlands Region	56.896	2.830	2.981	-0.590	1.638	2	3.7	NaN	Volatility (14.8), Affordability pressure (14.2), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (7.7)
2025-08	E12000006	East of England	56.447	7.592	-2.863	25.567	18.811	2	3.0	NaN	Volatility (12.1), Affordability pressure (11.0), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (11.0)
2025-08	S92000003	Scotland	55.907	-5.166	9.479	-6.448	2.241	1	4.0	NaN	Affordability pressure (12.6), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (12.1), Bubble risk (z-score) (10.5)
2025-08	E12000009	South West	55.571	-0.404	5.811	14.663	1.933	3	2.4	NaN	Volatility (13.5), Property-type fragmentation (10.8), Mortgage vs FTB price gap (8.8)
2025-08	E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	51.348	-15.409	-18.011	-16.537	-19.057	3	2.7	NaN	Volatility (16.2), Affordability pressure (7.9), FTB vs average price (7.9)
2025-08	K02000001	United Kingdom	50.230	2.304	11.551	6.228	8.344	2	3.0	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (12.9), Bubble risk (z-score) (12.4), Monthly shock (abs z) (10.1)
2025-08	E12000008	South East	38.836	1.617	-4.012	2.032	-1.744	3	1.8	NaN	Mortgage vs FTB price gap (13.2), Monthly shock (abs z) (7.5), Volatility (4.0)
2025-08	E12000007	London	36.456	-3.369	-20.458	-7.789	-15.790	3	-0.3	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (14.0), Volatility (6.7), FTB vs average price (6.3)
2025-08	W92000004	Wales	34.097	1.078	-18.564	-29.264	-22.336	2	2.0	NaN	Property-type fragmentation (8.6), FTB vs average price (7.1), Monthly shock (abs z) (4.9)
2025-08	N92000002	Northern Ireland	14.055	-1.382	-12.831	-24.287	-70.159	0	5.5	NaN	Bubble risk (z-score) (5.5), Monthly shock (abs z) (3.7), Volatility (2.3)

Top stressed areas (recent months comparison)

AreaCode	RegionName	2025-03	2025-04	2025-05	2025-06	2025-07	2025-08	change_1m	change_3m
E12000001	North East	83.640	73.739	71.346	90.629	85.961	87.062	1.101	15.716
E12000002	North West	67.258	55.071	52.701	66.091	69.474	69.048	-0.427	16.346
E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	70.761	60.141	69.358	50.570	66.757	51.348	-15.409	-18.011
E12000004	East Midlands	49.638	55.826	57.608	55.816	61.433	66.599	5.166	8.991
E12000005	West Midlands Region	51.215	55.117	53.914	60.374	54.066	56.896	2.830	2.981
E12000006	East of England	35.889	54.571	59.310	54.076	48.854	56.447	7.592	-2.863
E12000007	London	34.096	57.458	56.914	46.447	39.825	36.456	-3.369	-20.458
E12000008	South East	35.048	54.013	42.849	47.009	37.219	38.836	1.617	-4.012
E12000009	South West	41.757	47.827	49.760	44.527	55.975	55.571	-0.404	5.811
E92000001	England	51.225	56.906	55.008	56.470	57.772	62.624	4.852	7.615
K02000001	United Kingdom	45.620	39.623	38.679	42.453	47.926	50.230	2.304	11.551
N92000002	Northern Ireland	56.806	21.294	26.887	28.504	15.438	14.055	-1.382	-12.831
S92000003	Scotland	67.293	50.226	46.429	50.940	61.074	55.907	-5.166	9.479
W92000004	Wales	61.935	49.629	52.661	42.347	33.019	34.097	1.078	-18.564

Model-based deterioration risk (latest month)

Important: The model learns a label built from thresholds in this report, not external ground truth. Use it as a consistent scoring view.

train_rows	test_rows	cutoff_date	test_months	accuracy	precision	recall	roc_auc
405	128	2024-11-01	9	0.859	0.538	1.0	0.951

Date	AreaCode	RegionName	hsi_0_100
2025-08	E12000002	North West	69.048
2025-08	E12000001	North East	87.062
2025-08	E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	51.348
2025-08	E92000001	England	62.624
2025-08	E12000009	South West	55.571
2025-08	E12000008	South East	38.836
2025-08	E12000004	East Midlands	66.599
2025-08	E12000006	East of England	56.447
2025-08	E12000005	West Midlands Region	56.896
2025-08	K02000001	United Kingdom	50.230
2025-08	E12000007	London	36.456
2025-08	S92000003	Scotland	55.907
2025-08	W92000004	Wales	34.097
2025-08	N92000002	Northern Ireland	14.055

Clusters

Date	AreaCode	RegionName	cluster	affordability_pressure	volatility_12m	cash_dominance	mortgage_ftb_gap
2025-08-01	E12000001	North East	0	2.7	3.231	NaN	0.182
2025-08-01	E12000002	North West	0	0.8	2.565	NaN	0.180
2025-08-01	E12000006	East of England	1	-0.9	1.353	NaN	0.227
2025-08-01	S92000003	Scotland	1	-0.4	1.312	NaN	0.268
2025-08-01	E12000008	South East	1	-2.0	0.961	NaN	0.276
2025-08-01	E12000004	East Midlands	2	0.4	1.352	NaN	0.173
2025-08-01	E92000001	England	2	-1.0	1.331	NaN	0.217
2025-08-01	N92000002	Northern Ireland	2	NaN	0.741	NaN	NaN
2025-08-01	E12000009	South West	2	-1.5	1.450	NaN	0.207
2025-08-01	K02000001	United Kingdom	2	NaN	1.035	NaN	NaN
2025-08-01	W92000004	Wales	2	-1.8	0.845	NaN	0.167
2025-08-01	E12000005	West Midlands Region	2	-0.2	1.607	NaN	0.184
2025-08-01	E12000003	Yorkshire and The Humber	2	-1.1	2.308	NaN	0.165
2025-08-01	E12000007	London	3	-4.5	1.262	NaN	0.154

HSI composition

feature	label	weight	meaning
affordability_pressure	Affordability pressure	1.0	FTB 12m% change minus wage growth proxy; higher means affordability worsening.
liquidity_stress	Low sales volume	1.0	Low historical sales volume percentile (1.0 = worst); higher means thinner market liquidity.
volatility_12m	Volatility	1.0	Rolling 12-month standard deviation of monthly price changes; higher means more unstable pricing.
fragmentation_12m_std	Property-type fragmentation	0.8	Dispersion of 12m% changes across property types; higher means a segmented market.
mortgage_volume_drop	Mortgage volume drop (YoY)	0.8	-(mortgage sales volume YoY%); higher means mortgage activity falling faster.
price_volume_divergence	Price-volume divergence	0.8	Price YoY% minus volume YoY%; high values can mean prices up on falling liquidity.
mortgage_ftb_gap	Mortgage vs FTB price gap	0.7	MortgagePrice / FTBPrice - 1; higher means financed buyers are paying a larger premium over FTB segment.
bubble_risk_z	Bubble risk (z-score)	0.6	Z-score of YoY price change vs long-run baseline; high values indicate unusually hot growth for that area.
cash_dominance	Cash dominance	0.6	CashSalesVolume / (CashSalesVolume + MortgageSalesVolume); higher suggests mortgage constraints or cash-driven pricing.
cash_dominance_change_12m	Cash dominance change (12m)	0.6	Change in cash dominance vs 12 months ago; rising implies worsening mortgage conditions.
repossession_rate_12m_per_1000_sales	Repossession rate (12m per 1k sales)	0.6	Repossession 12m sum / sales volume 12m sum * 1000; higher suggests rising financial distress.
ftb_to_avg_price	FTB vs average price	0.5	FTBPrice / AveragePrice; higher means first-time buyers are paying closer to the overall average.
new_old_premium	New vs old premium	0.4	NewPrice / OldPrice - 1; higher means new builds are priced at a larger premium.
shock_1m_abs_z	Monthly shock (abs z)	0.4	Absolute z-score of the 1m% change vs recent history; higher means a more unusual monthly move.
drawdown_36m	Drawdown from 36m peak	0.3	(rolling peak - level) / rolling peak over 36m; higher means larger retreat from recent peak.