Emerging market bonds look increasingly attractive as political risks weigh on developed markets
EM debt offers stronger valuations and more stable fundamentals than many DM peers, say bond managers at M&G.
Bond portfolio commentators say that 2025's political headwinds-along with relative valuations-have shifted favour toward emerging markets. Local- and hard-currency debt in regions such as Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, India and parts of central Europe have benefited from resilient export performance and a more attractive inflation real rate picture. The argument rests on a combination of higher carry, less aggressive rate cycles, and improving fiscal dynamics in several EMs, even as global growth remains uneven.
From a governance perspective, managers emphasise scrutinising IMF-style indicators and other metrics to separate genuine credit quality improvements from noise. They caution that volatility-adjusted carry remains a crucial screen, especially where fiscal risk intersects with inflation trajectories. In the near term, the potential for a softer dollar could support EM local currency bonds, while persistent dollar strength could complicate the picture for some exporters.
The EM bond case is not without caveats. Local-currency exposures can still be vulnerable to commodity cycles, policy shifts, and external financing conditions. Nevertheless, the consensus among the interviewed managers is that EM debt could re-enter portfolios as an attractive risk premium, especially for investors seeking diversification in a year when developed markets face a mix of growth headwinds and policy uncertainty.
Near-term watchpoints include the trajectories of local yields, governance scores, and inflation paths in Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, India and selected central European economies. Any signs of renewed stress in public finances or black-swan policy moves would quickly recalibrate risk premia and currency dynamics. The balance of risks remains asymmetric: a stabilising global backdrop could unlock more attractive entry points for EM debt as valuations normalise.
Canada offers diversification for global portfolios amid resource depth
Canada is framed as a durable diversification play thanks to its energy metals complex, governance standards, and exposure to global demand beyond the United States.
The narrative rests on Canada’s commodity-intensive performance profile and robust governance framework, which together provide a counterweight to over-reliance on US demand. Analysts argue that a higher share of non-US demand for Canadian exports supports inflation hedging through real assets and reduces concentration risk for multi-asset strategies. Canada-specific drivers such as energy prices, metals commodities, and large-cap domestic earnings can cushion portfolios from faster-than-expected shifts in US growth or policy rates.
The price channel is not the only benefit. Canadian equities and corporate earnings may display resilience in the face of global shocks, particularly when global demand remains supportive of commodities. CAD performance will be a key barometer for portfolio managers to gauge how far non-US exposure can shift risk allocations without compromising liquidity or liquidity.
Investors are advised to watch energy and metals price trajectories, as well as corporate earnings trends in Canada. The broader message is that Canada’s link to global demand, rather than to the US alone, can offer a stabilising diversification role in diversified portfolios, mitigating concentration risk and improving inflation hedging through tangible assets.
Silver is out of favour despite 2025 rally because of volatility
Fund managers warn that silver's price swings remain too large for steady exposure even after a near-150 rally in 2025.
The silver story remains a nuanced one. On one hand, the metal functions as both currency hedge and industrial input; on the other, its price path has proven highly volatile in recent months. The near-term trajectory has been clouded by sharp swings that challenge risk management strategies for diversified portfolios.
Market observers note that a strong rally in 2025 was followed by outsized volatility in 2026, with price movements sensitive to shifts in the dollar, and to competing dynamics in gold. The industrial demand component for silver remains important for sectors such as electronics and photovoltaics, while the currency hedge aspect continues to attract a subset of risk-conscious investors seeking diversification.
In terms of strategy, managers suggest selectively integrating silver into broader baskets rather than using it as a core element of risk budgeting. The watchlist now includes the price path around notable levels such as the 78 per ounce mark and the relative performance versus gold. The ongoing challenge is balancing the diversification benefits of silver with the high volatility that can undermine stable portfolio allocations.
TechMet seeks additional funding to expand critical minerals footprint
TechMet plans to raise up to $200 million more to build out its critical minerals portfolio, backed by $300 million already raised including $180 million from the Qatar Investment Authority.
TechMet’s fundraising tilt signals a continuing push to secure supply chains aligned with US strategic objectives in Africa and Ukraine, intensifying competition for scarce minerals critical to energy transition and defence supply chains. The company has already built a diversified footprint across several continents and emphasises opportunities tied to battery metals, rare earths and other strategic resources.
The fundraising round will be watched for partner deals and for progress on notable assets such as the Dobra lithium project in Ukraine and other African ventures. The capital injection could accelerate development, potentially shaping the pace and geography of US-aligned supply chains in critical minerals. Observers will look for how the structure of the raise influences the deployment of funds and the terms of any new partnerships.
This transaction highlights the broader trend of private capital targeting commodity and mineral security in a world where policy and geopolitical risk feed into supply-chain strategies. If successful, TechMet’s expansion could tilt competitive dynamics and hasten diversification of global mineral supply away from traditional chokepoints.
Russia’s January crude output shrinks amid sanctions pressure
Russia’s January crude output declined for a second straight month to 9.28 million barrels per day, 46,000 bpd below December and about 300,000 bpd below its cap under OPEC+.
The output slide adds to a picture of constrained supply in a market shaped by sanctions regimes and strategic production quotas. The drop risks denting budget revenue and could tilt market share toward other OPEC+ allies if the bloc maintains or adjusts its strategy. Market participants will be watching official Russian production data, tanker loadings, and Indian purchases following recent US-India policy moves.
The near-term picture is one of guarded expectations: a continued emphasis on compliance with OPEC+ agreements combined with geopolitical risks that could influence pricing and flows. Any signals of sharper output resilience or renewed sanctions pressure would be a material driver for price action and for strategic considerations around energy security.
Analysts emphasise that while Russia faces structural headwinds, the global market environment remains closely linked to how other producers respond, how demand from major buyers evolves, and how sanctions policy evolves. The balance of these forces will shape the trajectory of Russian exports and the broader energy complex in the months ahead.
Oil rises on Hormuz risk as US advisories spark a price premium
Oil settled higher as the US advised ships to avoid Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI at 64.36 and Brent at 69.04 on February 9.
Hormuz risk continues to inject short-term volatility into energy markets. The advisory raises the premium demanded by traders for potential disruption and keeps a price cushion around geopolitical risk. The watch for flows to India and Cuba suggests that near-term price dynamics remain sensitive to fresh developments in the region and to any changes in the risk posture of key transit routes.
Market participants will monitor advisory updates, Iran-US talks, and potential shifts in crude flows through the region. Any escalation could amplify price pressures, particularly given the tightness implied by ongoing supply discipline among major producers and near-term demand signals from Asia.
While the near-term risk remains elevated, some observers emphasise that the global supply-demand balance has pockets of resilience, which could moderate price rises if diplomatic progress improves risk sentiment. The coming days will determine whether Hormuz-related tensions translate into durable price gains or a temporary premium.
Maersk orders eight large dual-fuel boxships to boost fleet flexibility
Maersk has ordered eight 18,600-TEU dual-fuel boxships to be delivered in 2029 and 2030.
The investment signals a shift toward adaptable capacity to navigate volatile freight markets. The plan reflects a broader industry trend toward prioritising fleet flexibility as shipping routes, congestion risks and fuel price volatility complicate traditional capacity planning. The new ships could influence rates and routing across critical corridors, including the Red Sea and Suez routes, depending on deployment patterns and utilisation.
Industry watchers will track delivery schedules, charter rates, and deployment strategies as the new tonnage candidates for anchoring more flexible supply chains. The move could also affect competition among carriers as they attempt to optimise capacity against evolving demand patterns and geopolitical risk factors.
The broader takeaway is that carriers are prioritising resilience and adaptability in their capital expenditure, aiming to align asset utilisation with a more uncertain freight environment. If these ships perform as expected, they may set a standard for future fleet planning in a market where rates can swing with supply chain disruptions.
EU sanctions extend to third-country ports handling Russian oil
The EU proposed adding Kulevi in Georgia and Karimun in Indonesia to sanctions on Russian oil, marking the first time sanctions target third-country ports.
This expansion broadens enforcement reach and could reconfigure global flows and port-level risk. If adopted, the move would necessitate closer scrutiny of routing, insurance, and trade finance across regions with varying compliance regimes. It could also influence the cost and certainty of routes that previously served as alternative support points for sanctioned flows.
Observers will watch the sanctions vote, shifts in port traffic, and any rerouting through Georgia and Indonesia. The policy signal matters for global trade networks and risk management, particularly for European energy import strategies and for traders monitoring sanctions compliance.
Tariff uncertainty hits US container imports in early 2026
Tariffs uncertainty is expected to push US container imports lower in early 2026, with 12.27 million TEU projected for the first half, down 2 percent from a year earlier.
The anticipated decline underscores the fragility of supply chains amid policy volatility. A policy environment lacking clear signals can distort pricing, inventory decisions and consumer costs as port volumes adjust to policy expectations. The coming weeks will be critical for tariff court outcomes and any Supreme Court rulings that could alter the trajectory.
Industry analysis stresses that continued policy ambiguity can maintain a climate of cautious allocations, with potential knock-on effects for freight rates, capacity planning, and retail pricing. Stakeholders should monitor court decisions, port TEU volumes, and any policy statements that signal a durable direction for tariffs.
ICL Boulby internal memo signals early-stage review that may explore a sale
An internal memo from ICL Boulby signals an early-stage review that may explore a sale of the site or related assets, framing strategic options and hinting at a possible shift in ownership structures; observers note connections to North Yorkshire infrastructure initiatives.
The document reads as a strategic options note rather than a decision, but it has already sparked commentary about potential pivots for regional assets and the implications for regulators, financiers and local partners. While the memo stops short of asserting an imminent sale, it is portrayed as a signal that a formal process could emerge if deliberations proceed. The memo also notes that Jeffrey Epstein maintained connections to exploratory infrastructure initiatives in North Yorkshire and the wider North East, a point that some observers emphasise when evaluating governance and local impact.
Watch for any formal process announcements, board discussions, or regulatory filings tied to ICL Boulby. Stakeholders will be assessing whether a sale, restructuring or asset repurposing could unfold, and how such moves would interact with regional water resources and power-generation capacity mentioned in the memo. The outcome may affect regional investment sentiment and the broader industrial landscape around North Yorkshire.
OpenAI board tensions escalate amid governance concerns
Internal discussions at OpenAI reveal growing friction between board members and leadership over AI safety protocols and commercial deployment strategies, underscoring questions about governance versus rapid scaling.
Observers say the tensions highlight the broader debate about how safety safeguards align with fast-paced innovation and monetisation. The discussions point to potential shifts in governance or policy direction, should the concerns translate into formal statements or board actions. Analysts will monitor for governance disclosures, votes, or regulatory signals that may shape how AI safety standards are set and how quickly deployments proceed.
If governance dynamics tilt toward stricter safety requirements or rebalanced prioritisation between safety and monetisation, there could be downstream effects on regulatory scrutiny and industry standards. The story is a reminder that governance maturity in AI firms could become a material driver of market expectations and policy responses in the months ahead.
Gold market resilience amid volatility and trading frameworks
Gold remains resilient amid volatility and shifting trading frameworks, with a narrative supported by price surges and macro-conditions.
The thread of gold's risk-off appeal persists as central banks accumulate reserves and investors seek hedges against inflation and currency risk. Volatility scenarios, including a notable intraday swing linked to market participants and policy moves, illustrate how sentiment can rapidly rebalance portfolios. Deutsche Bank analysts project a potential rise toward higher price trajectories, while near-term ranges reflect a mix of technical stop levels and macro risk appetite.
Market participants watch bullion prices, central bank purchases, ETF inflows and policy signals from major economies. The overarching takeaway is that gold remains a cornerstone asset for risk management in uncertain times, even as price action tests traders' risk controls and discipline. The evolving trading framework continues to shape how gold is used to hedge, diversify and preserve wealth.