New auction-level dataset reveals how EM sovereign borrowings are issued
The dataset tracks more than 75 000 issuance events across 20 EM economies from 2000 to 2023, revealing distinct logics by currency and a rising share of China as a borrower.
Emerging market debt data are being reinterpreted through an auction-level lens that highlights how policy choices shape refinancing versus strategic access to capital markets. Local-currency issuance appears tightly aligned with refinancing needs; maturities and coupon structures reflect the roll-over calendar of maturing LC debt. Foreign-currency issuance, by contrast, tracks global financial conditions, investor sentiment and terms-of-trade shocks, suggesting a tactical use of FX debt rather than a mere rollover mechanism.
The geographic and currency-specific patterns are striking. China accounts for a substantial share of issuance by 2023, with Egypt, India, Brazil and Mexico among the largest issuers in absolute terms. The mixture of maturities and currencies varies regionally, with Asian EMs showing lower foreign-currency exposure in practice, while Emerging Europe and Africa exhibit more local-currency debt with shorter initial maturities. The analysis also underscores a persistent gap in public debt data: standard debt databases often miss the dynamics of reopenings versus new issues, thereby obscuring how much debt managers rely on existing instruments.
From a policy perspective, the work stresses that robust domestic bond markets are a cornerstone of macroeconomic resilience. Local-currency markets reduce currency-induced balance-sheet risk and provide room for countercyclical policy. Foreign-currency borrowing can serve tactical objectives, but contingency planning becomes essential when access to international capital can tighten rapidly during periods of financial stress. The authors call for standardised, high-frequency debt data disclosures to enable more precise assessments of debt sustainability and resilience.
The implications extend to debt managers and policymakers who must balance the benefits of domestic market deepening with the realities of external financing during crises. If data gaps persist, the capacity to detect refinancing pressures or to calibrate risk buffers could lag behind actual financing needs. The study suggests that reforming data reporting and improving cross-country comparability will be as important as the debt management decisions themselves.
This line of research opens a practical channel for monitoring how EM sovereigns respond to shifting global financing conditions. It foregrounds the operational choices of treasury teams, the sequencing of issuances, and the stabilising role of domestic markets when global liquidity tightens. In an era of renewed global volatility, the auction-level view sharpens the lens on the micro-foundations of macro-financial stability.
Russia oil revenues halved in March before war boost
Russian oil tax receipts fell sharply year on year in March, with total oil and gas revenue also down, before the wartime price surge later in the month lifted some fiscal pressures.
March brought a sharp Revenue discrepancy for the Russian budget as oil tax receipts contracted nearly by half from a year earlier. The oil tax payment total landed at 494.9 billion rubles, while combined oil and gas revenues declined by about 43 percent to 617 billion rubles. The calculations for March oil taxes used Urals prices from the prior month and a set exchange rate, creating a frame that underscored the fiscal strain before the price spike that followed as Urals traded above $120 per barrel to one of its major buyers.
The drop in receipts is set against a ruble that remained depreciated versus the dollar in recent months, although the revenue boost later in March reflected the surge in crude values amid heightened geopolitical tensions. With fiscal strain evident as growth stalls and spending on the war in Ukraine continues, the government faces a tougher budget arithmetic in the near term, even as elevated prices could temporarily cushion the outlook. Markets will watch the pace of Urals price movements and the ruble-dollar dynamic to gauge the trajectory of fiscal forecasts for 2026.
Analysts note that the oil revenue dynamics are shaped by the price ladder and by Russia’s export routes and buyer mix. The Urals price, a key input into the March revenue calculation, moved significantly, and the end-month premium earned by shipments to India indicated a shift in terms of trade and market access. The shift exposes potential vulnerabilities in the 2026 budget trajectory, given the dependence on energy revenue for a substantial proportion of the fiscal envelope.
The immediate policy implication is a need to test budget forecasts against oil price volatility and the timing of revenue inflows. If prices do not sustain, the fiscal stance could face renewed pressure, requiring adjustments to spending commitments or debt management strategies. The broader message is that fiscal resilience in Russia remains contingent on energy market dynamics and the ability to cushion revenue shocks through prudent fiscal rules and diversified revenue channels.
The period also underscores how energy sanctions and supply shifts influence import and export flows, with Russia positioned as a price-taker in a volatile global market. As the world navigates a wobble in energy prices tied to the security environment, Russia’s fiscal outlook will likely remain sensitive to Urals price movements and to the ruble’s exchange rate against major currencies.
US energy production hit record levels in 2025
Offshore and deepwater development helped push US energy production to new heights in 2025, with forecasts indicating higher outputs through 2026 and 2027.
The official posture from the Department of the Interior and associated agencies confirms record offshore oil production on the Outer Continental Shelf for 2025, driven by deepwater projects that broaden the supply base. The sector’s growth is translating into a more assertive stance on energy independence, with the EIA projecting total US crude production including lease condensate to average around 13.61 million barrels per day in 2026 and 13.83 mbpd in 2027. An October 2025 readout placed monthly output at 13.864 mbpd, reinforcing a pattern of sustained offshore growth.
The implications for energy security are meaningful. The expansion of offshore capacity supports a domestic production renaissance that could influence policy debates on price stability, investment incentives, and offshore leasing programmes. The trajectory also has potential spillovers for regional economies tied to offshore activity and for the broader balance between conventional and renewable energy sources as policy priorities evolve.
Industry observers will want closer monitoring of regional offshore output by area, including Gulf states and Atlantic and Gulf offshore zones, to gauge the pace of new project commissioning and the durability of 2025 gains. Updates to the STEO forecast will be closely read for any shifts in expectations around capital expenditure, drilling activity, and the pace of production growth in the medium term.
The supply side story sits within a broader energy security debate that weighs the resilience of domestic production against geopolitical risk. As markets digest the evolving mix of onshore and offshore output, the pricing backdrop will continue to hinge on demand dynamics, global risk sentiment and the pace of policy responses to offshore energy expansion.
This snapshot reinforces the United States’ role as a key energy supplier and a stabilising influence on global markets, albeit tempered by the geopolitics surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and international energy flows. The coming quarters will test the sustainability of record offshore output against the backdrop of global price volatility and demand shifts as policy priorities continue to evolve.
Eni secures EIB funding for new Italian biorefinery
The European Investment Bank is providing a long-term loan to support a new biorefinery project in Lombardy, advancing the EU’s decarbonisation targets and expanding regional biofuel processing capacity.
Eni and the European Investment Bank have formalised a 15-year loan agreement worth EUR 500 million to enable biofuels production at the Sannazzaro de Burgondi refinery in Lombardy. The project is expected to process 550 000 metric tonnes per year of biofuel feedstock and will target hydrogenated vegetable oil diesel and sustainable aviation fuel with operations slated to begin in 2028. The loan reinforces the EU’s decarbonisation ambitions by supporting domestic biofuel production and the energy transition in Italy.
The financing comes with a broader set of expectations around supply chains, regulatory approvals, and project sequencing. Construction progress and feedstock supply arrangements will be closely watched for potential bottlenecks, while regulatory clearance and permitting timelines may influence the project schedule. The regional implications include job creation, industrial activity, and potential downstream effects on regional energy pricing and local energy security.
From a policy perspective, the Lombardy biorefinery aligns with Europe’s push to decarbonise transport fuels and reduce dependence on imported energy. Italy’s energy policy, and the EU’s green transition agenda, can be strengthened by project-level finance that enables credible scale-up of biofuel capacity. The transaction also signals a cooperative approach to financing energy transition endeavours, combining public support with private-sector implementation.
Operational milestones to track include finalisation of construction contracts, ramp-up of feedstock supply networks, and the timeline for achieving commercial-scale biofuel production. The project’s ability to integrate with existing refinery infrastructure and regulatory hurdles will be decisive for realising anticipated environmental and energy-security benefits.
TotalEnergies Masdar form 2 2B renewables JV in Asia
A major cross-border renewables alliance aims to consolidate onshore solar, wind and storage across nine Asian countries, targeting 3 GW operational by 2030 with 6 GW in development.
TotalEnergies and Masdar announced a 2.2 billion renewables joint venture to advance a nine-country portfolio across Asia. The venture, equally owned and headquartered in Abu Dhabi, is designed to oversee about 3 GW of operational capacity with a further 6 GW in advanced development by 2030. The collaboration positions the partners to deepen regional solar, wind and battery storage deployment, while aligning with energy-security and diversification goals.
The deal is framed as a significant step in Asia’s energy transition, with a large, managerially integrated portfolio and a workforce of around 200 employees. The joint venture will need to navigate regional policy environments, grid integration challenges, and the financing of large-scale renewables assets across diverse regulatory regimes. The operational milestones will include project handovers, asset acquisitions, and the progression from development to commissioning across multiple markets.
This alliance adds a major capital commitment to Asia’s renewables push at a time when power markets seek greater resilience and regional energy independence. For TotalEnergies and Masdar, the arrangement offers a platform for scale, shared risk, and a diversified pipeline that could accelerate decarbonisation trajectories across the region. Investors will be watching for progress milestones, governance structures, and the management of cross-border asset transfers as key indicators of success.
The portfolio’s geographic footprint will shape how the partners balance regulatory approvals, port access, and local content requirements. The joint venture’s governance framework and integration with existing operations will determine how quickly assets move from development to deployment, and how effectively the partners can mobilise capital to meet the 2030 target.
UK Holds Strait of Hormuz Meeting With 40+ Countries
Britain convened a major diplomacy-focused gathering to discuss freedom of navigation and potential collective action to reopen Hormuz amid multiple shipping attacks and a large seafaring displacement.
The United Kingdom, together with the International Maritime Organization and the European Union, hosted a meeting with more than 40 countries to discuss securing freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The talks cover sanctions, information exchange and potential collective actions, as tensions mount over the blockade-like disruption of shipping that has left some 20 000 seafarers stranded and prompted a maritime evacuation framework in the works at IMO.
Diplomatic engagement is framed as a pathway to de-risking global energy flows in a period of heightened risk. Observers will watch for progress in sanctions alignment, evidence of information-sharing mechanisms, and any agreed-upon steps for corridor protection or contingency planning. The discussions also reflect wider concerns about the intersection of energy security and international law, and whether a formal coalition might emerge to support a reopening effort.
Critical to any outcome is how real-world actions translate from talks to tangible measures. The potential for collective security mechanisms or UN-backed mandates remains a live question, with observers noting that the complexity of securing a chokepoint on an active conflict theatre may require a mix of diplomacy, economic tools and, in extremis, military options. The forum signals a willingness among major trading nations to coordinate responses to supply risks that could reverberate through prices and global growth.
Observers will monitor the status of shipping corridors, the health of global insurance markets and any shifts in carrier routing as practical indicators of progress. The Hormuz question will likely shape energy policy debates and allied security postures for months to come, influencing both pricing and strategic alliance calculations in the energy markets.
Oil surges on fears of prolonged war
Oil prices rose above 110 dollars in reaction to a potential long-running conflict and ongoing Hormuz disruption, with Brent trading around 109 and diesel above 200 per barrel.
Markets responded to talk of a protracted conflict and ongoing risk in the Middle East with a marked move higher in crude prices. Brent traded near the 109 dollar mark, while specific refined products such as European diesels traded at levels above 200 dollars per barrel. The price rally reflects geopolitical risk premia and the possibility that supply disruptions could persist for longer than previously anticipated.
Analysts emphasise that the Hormuz disruption acts as a persistent inflationary impulse, potentially squeezing consumer energy bills and complicating policy decisions in major economies. Traders will be watching inventory data, shipping disruptions and potential sanctions developments for further signals about how long price pressures might endure. The evolution of the conflict and any signs of escalation could keep a floor under prices in the near term, even if any tactical moves by coalition forces alter the risk landscape.
This price environment underscores the sensitivity of energy markets to geopolitical events and the potential for feedback loops between policy responses and price expectations. Policymakers may face difficult choices around strategic reserves, subsidy policies and the timing of fiscal support measures if energy costs stay elevated. The market will continue to price in the risk of extended disruption, while supply-side responses from producers could modulate the trajectory in coming weeks.
As investors adjust to the new normal of higher energy risk, attention shifts to how demand responds and how quickly alternate supply routes or substitutions can mitigate the impact. The Hormuz dimension remains central to any global price scenario, with the potential for further volatility if the conflict escalates or insurance dynamics tighten further.
CMA CGM Kribi exits Hormuz crossing
The CMA CGM Kribi, a Western Europe-linked vessel, reportedly crossed Hormuz on a route linking West Africa to Europe, underscoring changing risk appetites and carrier routing decisions amid conflict disruptions.
The Kribi, a maltese-flagged container ship with about 5 000 TEU, was reported as crossing Hormuz on a route described as Midas Loop 1. Carrier and owner statements were not forthcoming, leaving industry observers to interpret the transit as a signal of evolving routing choices in response to heightened risk in the Strait of Hormuz. The development adds a new data point in the assessment of how shipping lines reconfigure network patterns during energy market stress.
If confirmed, the transit could have implications for insurance premia, laytime costs and overall routing strategies for Western carriers. Observers will watch for any additional Hormuz transits, and whether shipping lines begin to adjust toll policies or implement route diversification on a broader scale. The unfolding pattern could influence global trade costs and the resilience of downstream supply chains.
The event underscores the broader reconfiguration pressures facing maritime logistics amid strategic tensions surrounding Hormuz. While a single vessel transit is not a trend in itself, it contributes to a body of signals about how carriers adapt under geopolitical risk and what it means for future shipping patterns and price signals in energy markets.
BP women take helm
BP appoints Meg O’Neill as chief executive, with Howle as deputy; the leadership team now includes five women and signals a renewed focus on disciplined capital allocation and portfolio strategy.
Meg O’Neill takes the helm at BP with a mandate to accelerate growth, reduce debt and drive a portfolio review aligned with governance changes. The appointment marks a continuation of leadership diversity within a sector that traditionally leaned toward male-dominated executive ranks. The company has set a 2027 net debt target of 14 to 18 billion dollars, contingent on asset sales and strategic rebalancing.
Observers will watch for how O’Neill and her team navigate the balance between returning capital to shareholders and funding growth initiatives in a volatile energy market. The leadership change occurs alongside governance adjustments from the new chair, with expectations that the renewed leadership will push for clearer strategic direction and more decisive execution in the portfolio reconfiguration. Market sentiment has improved since the announcement, but investors will demand tangible progress on debt reduction and value creation.
The broader significance lies in how BP positions itself during a period of market volatility and energy transition. A leadership team with prominent female representation could influence risk management, investment discipline and governance norms, potentially reshaping the company’s approach to project selection and capital allocation in the near term.
The leadership transition comes at a time when energy policy and commodity markets are highly sensitive to geopolitical disruptions, supply constraints and demand shifts. BP’s strategic choices in 2026 and beyond will help inform broader industry expectations about resilience and value creation in a volatile environment.
UAE seeks UN stamp on Hormuz measures
The UAE has urged the United Nations to authorise measures, including force, to reopen Hormuz under a Chapter Seven mandate, potentially paving the way for a naval task force and coordinated economic actions.
The request signals a potential shift in the international framework for addressing Hormuz-related disruptions. A Chapter Seven mandate would empower a UN-backed intervention to restore safe navigation, possibly accompanied by a naval task force and coordinated economic measures. The move would escalate the security calculus around Hormuz and broaden the spectrum of possible actions available to the international community.
Observers note that UN Security Council dynamics will be crucial in determining whether any collective action emerges. The UAE’s push interacts with ongoing diplomatic efforts and the evolving geographic and strategic calculus of energy security. Any progression toward a formal mandate would require consensus among permanent and rotating members, with potential implications for sanctions regimes, shipping insurance, and regional stability.
The implications for energy markets would be meaningful if a UN-backed framework enabled more predictable and safer passage for vessels, potentially reducing price volatility and creating space for alternative routes or carrier networks. The international community would need to balance the risk of escalation against the aim of ensuring open shipping lanes in a volatile region.
Diplomatic developments will continue to be watched closely as new alignments form around Hormuz. Any movement toward a UN-backed mandate could reshape the security landscape and influence pricing, shipping costs and investment decisions in both energy and trade finance sectors.
USA crude oil stocks rise WoW
US crude inventories increased by 5.5 million barrels week over week, with SPR stocks at 415.1 million barrels and total petroleum stocks at 1.688 billion barrels; WTI traded around 101 dollars.
Weekly stock data point to a softer near-term balance in the US market, even as the SPR stockpile remains near strategic levels. The build coincides with a firm price level for WTI around the 101 dollar mark, a signal that the near-term price trajectory may hinge on refinery runs, demand signals and global risk sentiment, including developments in Middle East tensions and Hormuz-related trade disruptions.
Analysts will scrutinise the composition of the inventory build, including whether the rise reflects weaker demand, stronger imports, or adjustments in refinery utilisation. The interplay between SPR activity and market sentiment remains a critical variable for near-term price movements, with potential implications for policy makers and consumers who monitor energy costs.
This weekly data point sits within a larger narrative about energy supply resilience and the capacity of US energy systems to respond to volatility. As markets digest these numbers, attention will turn to upcoming storage data, refinery maintenance schedules and international price signals that could alter the near-term balance again.