Cyclone Gezani leaves Madagascar in humanitarian crisis with potential macro shocks
A cyclone in Madagascar has produced significant loss of life, displacement and injuries, with humanitarian needs mounting alongside risks to agriculture and local economies. The outlook rests on casualty tallies, displacement updates and the effectiveness of aid to stabilise food supply and livelihoods in the coming weeks. Early signals point to potential macro shocks if agricultural activity is disrupted and relief distributions lag or misallocate resources.
Initial casualty and displacement data place the toll in the low hundreds on affected communities, with tens of thousands displaced and hundreds injured. The scale of damage raises questions about access to affected regions, the resilience of rural infrastructure and the adequacy of logistics for delivering food, shelter and healthcare. Analysts warn that agricultural cycles in Madagascar are sensitive to weather shocks, and disruptions could reverberate through local markets and household incomes.
Humanitarian organisations are prioritising cross-regional coordination to reach affected households, while governments and partners monitor nutrition status, water supply and disease risk. The unfolding relief effort will test the capacity of logistics networks in the region and the ability to protect vulnerable populations from rising risks of malnutrition and disease. In policy terms, the episode invites scrutiny of disaster-response readiness alongside longer-run resilience planning for climate-related hazards.
Observers are watching for casualty toll updates, displacement patterns and aid distributions in the weeks ahead as storms recede and recovery planning begins. If the toll escalates or relief operations falter, macro effects on agricultural inputs, local currency strength and consumer prices could intensify, complicating regional stability. The coming weeks will determine whether this event becomes a catalyst for enhanced humanitarian and agricultural support or a protracted challenge for relief coordination.
Rising cohort fertility patterns and the role of shifting priorities
Kearney and Levine (2025) illuminate cross-country shifts in fertility, suggesting that delayed entry into parenthood reflects evolving social norms and lifestyle choices rather than short-term shocks. The pattern is visible in six high-income countries, with rising childlessness across recent birth cohorts and a broad move away from family formation among young adults. If sustained, these dynamics imply slower population growth, increased ageing and fiscal pressures that policy design will have to absorb.
The research extends Becker-style models by incorporating cohort-specific social norms and lifestyle options into fertility decisions. It contends that more expansive career and leisure possibilities reallocate time and resources away from early parenthood, even when underlying fertility preferences remain constant. The result is a long-horizon adjustment in life planning among younger generations, with marriage and childbearing less central to perceived life fulfilment.
Policy implications are nuanced. Incremental pro-natalist policies may ease constraints but are unlikely to reverse the low-fertility paradigm by themselves. The authors argue that only large-scale societal shifts-so that parenthood becomes more compatible with a flourishing adult life-could meaningfully alter lifetime fertility outcomes. In practice, housing affordability and access to home ownership emerge as potentially meaningful levers, albeit within broader cultural and institutional change.
The study aligns with a growing literature that places social norms and housing costs at the heart of fertility trajectories in advanced economies. It also flags policy design challenges: even substantial childcare subsidies or tax credits may yield limited, short-term fertility gains unless they address multi-year decision horizons. The work invites policymakers to think in longer horizons about family formation, work-life balance and housing markets as determinants of demographic outcomes.
Europe’s AI productivity paradox: gains but uneven diffusion and implications
New European evidence identifies a causal link between AI adoption and higher productivity across EU firms, while employment benefits remain ambiguous in the short run and diffusion shows sizeable regional and firm-size variation. The research underscores a nuanced equity challenge: benefits cluster in mid-to-large firms and in financially developed economies, with smaller firms and less-developed regions lagging in deployment.
The study employs a novel identification strategy to isolate AI’s causal impact on productivity, comparing EU firms with matched US peers to control for cross-country institutional factors. The headline finding is a 4 percent productivity uplift on average from AI adoption, with no evidence of short-run job losses when controlling for selection effects. Wages, however, have risen in aggregate for workers in AI-adopting firms, leaving open questions about long-run distribution.
Heterogeneity is central. Large firms show stronger adoption rates and higher installed complementarities in software, data infrastructure and training, while smaller firms face higher barriers to entry. The diffusion gap poses a risk of widening regional and firm-size inequalities in the EU, particularly if complementary investments are unevenly funded or implemented. The paper emphasises the need for policies that spread digital infrastructure, upskilling and data readiness across regions to ensure broad-based gains.
The authors caution that sustained productivity improvements depend on ongoing investment in technology, skills and organisational capabilities. They also highlight that AI’s impact on total employment may differ over longer horizons as firms reallocate tasks and reframe job roles rather than simply expanding headcount. Ongoing monitoring of wage trajectories, regional diffusion and SME uptake will be essential to evaluate whether Europe can translate productivity gains into broader welfare improvements.
California’s fuel resilience tested by Bahamas imports amid Jones Act constraints
California’s import mix reveals a heavy reliance on overseas supply, including more than 40 percent of November petrol imports from the Bahamas, a situation aggravated by scarce Jones Act-compliant tankers. The combination exposes the West Coast fuel system to international supply dynamics and regulatory rostering that can complicate timely deliveries. The ongoing challenge is to balance regulatory constraints with operational flexibility as refinery outages and port logistics interact with global shipping.
Analysts note that the Jones Act framework constrains the available fleet for domestic fuel distribution, raising questions about alternative modalities such as waivers or ramped pipeline capacity. Fuel-import dynamics also interact with refinery reliability and maintenance schedules, feeding into volatility in prices and supply security. The implications extend to state-level policy choices and to the resilience of critical transport and energy infrastructure.
Policy watchers will monitor import shares, refinery status and any changes to Jones Act waivers or broader shipping capacity that could alter liquidity in California’s fuel market. The episode also highlights the sensitivity of regional energy systems to global supply disruptions and regulatory constraints, underlining the need for coordinated planning across transport, energy and environmental policy.
Niger moves uranium powder back to Orano SA as resource nationalism grows
Niger’s military government has announced the return of 95,000 tonnes of concentrated uranium powder to Orano SA, underscoring rising nationalism over strategic minerals in West Africa. The decision highlights the geopolitics of uranium supply and the potential implications for Western energy strategies that rely on diversified mineral inputs. Governance in Niger and the treatment of state assets will now be closely watched for signs of further policy recalibration.
Observers will monitor uranium movements, governance arrangements at Somair and any new deals with Orano or other buyers. The return may affect short-term supply dynamics and could influence future negotiations around resource access, processing capacity and the handling of strategic minerals under changing political conditions. Analysts warn that this development could foreshadow broader state-led renegotiations of mineral concessions and value capture in the region.
The broader implication concerns energy security and Western strategies in West Africa, where resource nationalism is increasingly part of the policy conversation. If such moves become widespread, supply chains for uranium and related materials could face greater complexity and potential price volatility. Stakeholders will seek clarity on the continuity of contract terms, governance frameworks and investment timelines.
Arctic ship traffic hits a record in 2025 as resource projects drive growth
Arctic shipping registered 1,812 unique vessels in 2025, up 40 percent since 2013, with LNG carriers expanding as routes open further. The Arctic corridor is becoming a more active commercial highway but with sanctions, weather and environmental risks to monitor. The surge reflects intensifying resource development and the region’s evolving role in global logistics, even as operators contend with regulatory and climatic uncertainties.
The growth in traffic signals expanded access to high-latitude energy and mineral projects, but it also raises exposure to climate-driven disruptions and geopolitical frictions over access to Arctic sea routes. Industry observers caution that navies, sanctions regimes and environmental safeguards will shape the pace and cost of Arctic operations in coming years. Infrastructure and port capacity in the region will be watched as activity rises.
Policy discussions are likely to focus on governance of Arctic transit, environmental safeguards and the oversight of vessel movements in sensitive ecosystems. Observers will track developments in NSR policy, shipping regulations and any new regimes addressing northern sea routes amid changing climate and international dynamics.
Hapag-Lloyd to acquire ZIM: global liner consolidation and labour watch
Hapag-Lloyd has agreed to acquire ZIM Integrated Shipping Services for about 4.2 billion dollars, carving out ZIM's domestic operations to FIMI; the combined network would exceed 3.8 million TEU and 400 vessels, with potential labour tensions simmering. The deal signals a major consolidation in liner shipping with implications for competition, national security and port operations. Regulatory scrutiny and potential strikes are on the near-term watchlist.
Regulators will assess competition considerations, given the scale of the combined fleet and networks. Labour action looms as a credible near-term risk if consolidation intersects with local wage and working-condition negotiations. Stakeholders will watch for the final structuring of the deal, foreign investment approvals and any conditions that affect operations and staffing across routes and ports.
Industry observers note that the shift could alter service patterns, pricing and capacity planning across major trade lanes. The reorganisation may influence supplier dynamics, customer contracts and the resilience of supply chains facing port congestion and other operational pressures. The deal sits at the intersection of global trade, security considerations and labour relations in a highly scrutinised sector.
Chevron-led consortium signs exclusive lease deals for Greek offshore gas
A Chevron-led consortium has signed exclusive lease agreements to explore natural gas off southern Greece, spanning about 18 000 square miles with seismic work within five years and potential test wells in 2030-2032. The alliance could diversify Europe’s gas supply and influence Eastern Mediterranean energy geopolitics. Early seismic results will be crucial for planning and investment decisions ahead of potential production timelines.
Investors will be watching seismic outcomes, early drilling plans and any shifts in regional energy policy that might arise from Greece's offshore potential. The prospect of new gas supply could interact with European gas market dynamics, including pricing, storage and regulatory regimes. The evolving plan could also recalibrate regional energy dialogue and commitments among Mediterranean partners.
Geopolitical dynamics matter as well. A successful push in eastern Mediterranean gas could affect bargaining power with traditional suppliers and reshape regional energy security calculations. Analysts caution that exploration does not guarantee commercial viability, but it can nonetheless influence investor sentiment and strategic planning for European energy resilience.
NRC intervention tests the data center case for Texas SMRs
The NRC administrative process allowed formal intervention against Dow and X-energy’s four-reactor Texas small modular reactor project on financial-qualification grounds, highlighting regulatory complexity for AI-driven data-centre expansion and nuclear power ambitions. The case illustrates what regulatory timelines and licensing hurdles could mean for deployment of modular reactors associated with AI infrastructure growth.
The proceedings will be watched for Part 53 finalisation progress, licensing milestones and any implications for deployment timelines. If approved, the Texas project could become a touchstone for future SMR developments linked to data-centre expansion and high-availability computing needs. The outcome may shape policy debate around risk, financeability and siting for modular nuclear options.
Observers point to the broader challenge of aligning regulatory approvals with rapid demand growth in data-heavy sectors. The investigation into financial qualification signals how scrutiny of project economics can influence the pace of deployment for next-generation reactors. Stakeholders will monitor any shifts in regulatory posture that could accelerate or delay potential deployments.
Aramco signs 1 million tonnes per year LNG off-take for 20 years
Aramco has agreed a 20-year LNG off-take deal for 1 million tonnes per year with Commonwealth LNG in Louisiana; Commonwealth envisions up to 9.5 Mtpa overall, with significant export revenue projected in coming years. The agreement strengthens US LNG export dynamics and reshapes global gas-market flows, while posing questions about project finance and market risk over the long horizon.
Final investment decision timing and the exact offtake volumes will be critical near-term signals. Market participants will look for how this deal interacts with broader US LNG capacity expansion, pipeline capacity, and international demand, particularly across Europe and Asia. The arrangement could influence pricing benchmarks, contract structures and the balance of power among major LNG players.
Analysts note that the deal aligns with a global shift toward diversified gas supply, yet it also raises questions about regional market balance, transportation costs and the durability of demand amidst competing energy investments. Observers will monitor any subsequent announcements on project funding, infrastructure upgrades and policy support for LNG exports from the Gulf region and the southern United States.
Mali extends Barrick Loulo-Gounkoto permit for a decade
Mali has extended Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto gold mining permit by ten years, with a new feasibility outlook showing substantial open-pit and underground operation, and projected annual production around 421 thousand ounces; 2024 revenue was near $900 million. The extension underpins Mali’s role in West Africa’s gold sector and supports long-range investment planning for the project.
Investors will track feasibility updates and ramp-up progress at Loulo-Gounkoto, including capital expenditure, mine-life extensions and ore-quality dynamics. The project’s timeline will matter for regional employment, revenue streams and the country’s mining governance framework. The development could also influence diversification in West Africa’s resource mix and service economies dependent on mining activity.
The Mali case sits within a broader regional context of resource development and governance, where stable policy environments and transparent revenue sharing can attract further investment. Analysts will watch for updates on environmental compliance, community relations and the governance framework around mining concessions as the project expands. The outcome will shape the longer-term investment climate for mining in the region.
BRICS explores precious metals exchange amid volatility
BRICS is preparing to launch a precious metals exchange as gold market volatility persists, aiming to reshape price discovery and liquidity in niche and mainstream segments. The move signals a strategic attempt to influence global hedging dynamics and currency interactions within a multipolar trading landscape.
Regulators will monitor the exchange’s approvals, market access, and participant uptake as the platform ramps up. The potential impact could include shifts in price discovery mechanisms, spreads and risk management strategies for market participants across asset classes. Observers will watch for interoperability with existing exchanges and the regulatory framework enabling cross-border participation.
Market watchers warn that the introduction of a BRICS metals venue could alter risk pricing and liquidity in volatile periods. The development would also intersect with central bank policy and foreign exchange dynamics, given metals’ role as a global store of value and hedge in uncertain macro environments. Close attention will be paid to launch timelines, participant onboarding and any early pricing anomalies.