Anglo flags third De Beers writedown as Teck merger looms
Anglo American contemplates another De Beers impairment as market conditions stay weak and asset sales accelerate ahead of a planned merger with Teck Resources.
Anglo American has signalled that a further writedown of De Beers could be on the cards as it contends with persistent diamond price weakness and ongoing asset sales. The group is advancing a restructuring plan that includes disposing of non-core assets while pressing ahead with its proposed combination with Teck Resources, a move that would create a new conglomerate with broader metal and mining exposure. The writedown would come after prior impairments tied to De Beers and other assets, reflecting fragile market conditions in polished and rough diamond markets amid tariff uncertainty and shifting demand patterns.
The company has indicated that the impairment review will accompany full-year results, with the chair and chief executive signalling that the sale process for De Beers remains ongoing. Botswana, which holds a stake in De Beers, has reportedly expressed a willingness to participate in shaping any future ownership structure, underscoring the political and strategic sensitivities surrounding the sale. In tandem with its diamond business, Anglo is pursuing a copper-centric strategy that includes overseeing broader asset reorganisation and potential cross-asset synergies in a Teck-led merger context.
Market participants will be watching the pace and terms of reallocation from De Beers into a broader portfolio strategy, and how the merger timetable interacts with copper project development and slab-level impairment assessments. The copper outlook remains central to the near-term valuations of Anglo and its peers, given the sector's current demand dynamics and evolving project economics. Any impairment outcome, alongside the merger timetable, could influence the strategy for De Beers' exit and the overall pace of Anglo-Teck integration.
Investors will also be alert to updates on the wider mineral and copper strategy, including potential impacts on shareholder value, the timing of asset sales, and the negotiation dynamics with Teck. The interplay between impairments, asset divestments, and merger progress will determine the trajectory for Anglo’s core businesses through the remainder of the year.
Kreuzer, Gauci launch 49 Metals IPO
Two veteran mining financiers back a new ASX listing aiming to raise capital for a US-focused gold search, signalling ongoing appetite for high-risk, high-reward exploration plays.
Dr Oliver Kreuzer and Matt Gauci have launched a 49 Metals IPO seeking A$10 million at an offer price of 20 cents per share to finance a US-focused gold exploration push. The move spotlights a crowded Australian mining funding environment where junior explorers pursue early-stage growth with a mix of private funding, equity raising, and strategic partnerships. The prospectus outlines a focused strategy on near-term exploration with an eye to early-stage resource definition, in a market where capital discipline and project quality are under close scrutiny.
The IPO is positioned within a broader context of renewed investor interest in precious metals and the flexibility of exploration-stage capital, even as the sector contends with commodity price volatility and a tight funding environment. The promoters emphasise a direct link to policy tailwinds around critical minerals and the potential for strategic partnerships or follow-on funding rounds if the initial project milestones prove viable. Market observers will monitor how the company's alleged warrants, placement options, and any subsequent capital raises unfold, along with potential milestones in drilling campaigns or assay results.
As with many junior plays, execution will hinge on the ability to translate early momentum into validated resource estimates and an attractive economics profile under realistic commodity price assumptions. The market will also assess the quality of the geological team, the geographic focus, and the company’s capacity to scale exploration activities in the United States. If the project can demonstrate a credible path to resource definition, 49 Metals could establish a foothold in a sector where valuations often hinge on near-term exploration results and the efficiency of capital deployment.
Manuka's Taranaki sand mining dream washed up
New Zealand’s regulatory stance closes the door on offshore sand mining along the Taranaki coast, ending a protracted campaign and underscoring environmental and social risk in large-scale infrastructure plans.
Manuka Resources' offshore sand mining proposal for New Zealand's Taranaki coast is set to be rejected by the government, marking a decisive turn in a long-running dispute. The decision highlights the political risk and environmental scrutiny attached to offshore extraction projects, where community input, coastal protections, and potential ecological impacts shape project viability. The rejection closes a chapter on a plan that proponents argued would unlock material resource capacity for construction and industrial uses.
The development underscores the broader risk landscape for infrastructure projects that hinge on contested environments or near-shore ecosystems. Supporters have framed the project as a source of local jobs and regional development, while opponents have emphasised potential ecological disruption and the need for comprehensive impact assessment. The government’s stance aligns with a cautious approach to offshore resource extraction and hints at the possibility of alternative sites or project pivots in the broader coastal strategy.
For Manuka Resources, the setback reinforces the necessity of aligning project proposals with regulatory expectations and stakeholder concerns, particularly when offshore activities intersect with environmental safeguards. The outcome may influence future funding decisions and the company’s strategic options, including asset sales or reallocation of exploration focus to other assets. The decision also contributes to the narrative around balancing growth in construction materials with responsible environmental stewardship.
Berkeley lobs expanded US$1.25 billion claim against Spain
Berkeley Energia has filed a US$1.25 billion arbitration claim against Spain over the Salamanca uranium mine rejection, intensifying a European energy policy dispute.
Berkeley Energia has launched a substantial claim against Spain in relation to the Salamanca uranium mine, seeking roughly US$1.25 billion in damages. The case magnifies the tension between investor expectations in mineral projects and national regulatory decisions, with potential implications for how Spain handles future uranium development and other strategic minerals. Arbitration progress, potential settlements, or court rulings in Hong Kong could shape the mine’s prospects and broader investor sentiment across Europe.
The dispute sits within a wider debate about energy security, supply chains for critical minerals, and the role of European investment in uranium and related resources. It also raises questions about dispute resolution pathways and the balance between environmental approvals and industrial ambition. Observers will watch for any early negotiation signals or indications of potential settlements that could influence the Salamanca project’s trajectory and similar ventures across Europe.
If the arbitration advances, it could influence both the policy environment and investor appetite for European uranium initiatives. The outcome may affect Spain’s approach to future mineral projects, and policymakers could face pressure to clarify regulatory criteria, timing, and compensation mechanisms for expropriation risk. The case will also be scrutinised for potential implications for cross-border investment and the governance of European energy asset development.
GlenTinto talks fall through
Rio Tinto and Glencore walk away from merger discussions after failing to agree on a control premium, reshaping copper-sector consolidation prospects.
Rio Tinto has confirmed that talks with Glencore about a potential merger have fallen through after parties could not reach agreement on a control premium. The breakdown preserves the status quo and signals challenges in achieving timely scale-driven consolidation in copper markets, where supply constraints and project economics influence strategic positioning. The collapse leaves the field open for alternative partnership discussions and may drive renewed focus on core copper operations, supply-chain reliability, and long-term collaboration arrangements.
Analysts will watch for any renewed overtures or new bids from rival groups, as well as regulatory signals regarding potential mergers in the copper space. The withdrawal of this particular deal reshapes the landscape for copper supply and could influence the strategic calculus for both firms’ leadership teams, governance structures, and value realisation for shareholders. In the near term, investors may reassess copper exposure in light of the revised competitive dynamics and the implications for pricing and project development.
Rio Tinto has emphasised that executive continuity remains a priority in any future discussions, should talks resume. The focus now shifts to potential alternative combinations or asset-level partnerships that could unlock value without a full merger. The evolving copper sector dynamics will require close monitoring of leadership terms, strategic alignments, and the timing of any new negotiations or board-level decisions.
China steps in as India wavers in Russias oil trade
China’s demand anchors Sino-Russian oil flows as New Delhi reconsiders its position amid Western policy shifts and pricing incentives.
January 2026 marked a record month for Sino-Russian seaborne oil trade, with exports reaching about 1.86 million barrels per day and a 100 per cent ESPO share to China. The shift comes as Russia seeks to diversify buyers amid Western pressure and as price differentials to Brent remain attractive for Chinese refiners. The arrangement reflects a broader geopolitical realignment of Asia’s energy corridors, with Russian volumes moving toward China in a way that could influence regional supply security and pricing dynamics.
Prices remain a critical driver of the reconfigured flows. Urals discounts to Brent have narrowed but still offer a compelling price signal to Chinese buyers, particularly when Moscow absorbs much of the insurance and logistics burden. The structural alignment between Russia and China is reinforced by new infrastructure and refining capacity in China, including the Shandong Yulong refinery, which has become a key conduit for Russian crude. In this framework, Russia’s traditional reliance on European markets is tempered by intensified ties with China, while India weighs the strategic implications of being marginalised in a large Eurasian energy corridor.
Beyond immediate trade patterns, the development signals broader geopolitical risk and its economic spillovers. The Bloomberg-like dynamic could heighten price sensitivities for Asian refiners and shift revenue profiles for Russia as demand patterns shift away from Western markets. If the trend persists, Beijing and Moscow may further consolidate a supply chain that reduces exposure to Western sanctions, while other buyers such as India balance policy and price considerations. The near-term indicators will be monthly trade data, ESPO share movements to China, and price differentials to Brent for Russian crude.
EU escalates oil sanctions with broad ban on shipping services
Brussels unveils its broadest ever sanctions on Russian crude, targeting shipping, insurance, financing, and 43 more shadow fleet vessels, while expanding metal and mineral bans.
The European Commission has proposed a sweeping sanctions package designed to cut directly into the plumbing of seaborne Russian crude trade. The plan would ban European shipping firms, insurers, financiers, and other maritime services from handling Russian oil at any price. If adopted, the measure would intensify pressure on a system that has relied on Western infrastructure and the shadow fleet, and would expand the blacklist to include around 640 vessels. In addition, imports of Russian metals, chemicals, and critical minerals would face new restrictions.
The move is framed as a necessary step to push Moscow toward substantive peace talks, with proponents arguing that a services ban is harder to evade than price caps or vessel-specific bans. Yet unanimity among EU member states remains essential, and practical implementation would require coordination with G7 partners and close monitoring of enforcement and evasion patterns. The package signals a sustained, more aggressive European stance on Russian energy revenues and is likely to influence the calculus of global shipping, insurance markets, and risk pricing in oil trades.
Enforcement complexity remains a key risk. While the services ban narrows the routes for moving oil, it is not guaranteed to eliminate flows entirely; instead, it could push volumes into more opaque channels that are harder to police. The practical impact will hinge on member-state cohesion, the availability of alternative insurers, and the speed with which compliant channels can be maintained or replaced. Market observers will monitor the pace of EU consensus, the operational roll-out of the ban, and any collateral effects on insurance pricing and vessel utilisation.
Solar set to surpass coal in China, but there’s a catch
China’s renewables trajectory looks robust, but new coal capacity proposals threaten the pace of the transition despite a rising solar and wind share.
China’s electricity mix is projected to shift toward renewables, with solar and wind capacity forecast to account for roughly half of installed capacity by end-2026. The China Electricity Council says coal capacity could fall to around one-third, while 235 GW of solar and 98 GW of wind are anticipated in 2026. Yet Carbon Brief highlights a record wave of coal-fired power plant proposals in 2025 and 2026, with 161 GW of new coal capacity proposed in 2025 alone and a continuing pipeline of coal projects into 2026 and beyond.
The tension lies in the regulatory regime shift from feed-in tariffs to market-based auctions, which may slow the pace of new renewable capacity while sustaining or expanding coal capacity through approvals and project pipelines. Several observers warn that even as renewables surge, a surge in coal project approvals could lock in assets and offset near-term emissions reductions. The net effect could be a renewables-growth path tempered by policy-driven coal additions, complicating the climate- and energy-security narrative.
Analysts emphasise that the broader trend remains a structural transition, not a sudden pivot. The growth of solar and wind could outpace coal in the longer run, particularly if policy incentives align with investment and grid-market reforms. However, the immediate risk is that coal's expansion plans could cap the emission-reduction trajectory and shape the price discipline for grid-scale capacity additions. Market watchers will monitor 2026 capacity additions, auction outcomes, and coal project approvals to gauge the resilience of the transition.
Washington targets tankers keeping Iranian crude moving
US sanctions broaden enforcement on Iranian oil networks, focusing on 15 entities, 2 individuals, and 14 vessels linked to illicit trade under executive authorities.
The United States has expanded sanctions on Iranian oil trade, targeting a network of entities, individuals, and vessels tied to illicit oil movements. The action, taken under Executive Order 13846, aims to disrupt shipping and finance networks that enable Iran to sustain energy revenues and funding for external proxies. The sanctions reflect a continuing effort to tighten enforcement against evasion and to deter transport routes that violate U.S. and allied policies.
These measures add friction to Iran’s crude flows and raise the cost and risk of sanction-busting practices, with implications for sanction evasion patterns and trading routes. Observers will monitor enforcement actions, the resilience of Iranian oil routes, and any shifts in trading patterns as shippers reassess risk and compliance costs. The broader geopolitical backdrop-tensions in the Persian Gulf and the potential for related diplomatic developments-will colour how markets price risk and how Iranian volumes respond to evolving restrictions.
In the near term, market participants will watch for the actual imposition of penalties, the identification of additional sanctioned entities, and any visible changes in Iran’s redirection of crude to alternative buyers or routes. The dynamics could influence tanker availability, insurance costs, and the global assessment of sanctions regimes in the energy complex.
EU shadow fleet expanded: full maritime services ban intensifies enforcement
European Union moves to extend its sanctions by banning maritime services for Russian crude and widening the shadow fleet blacklist, with broader implications for enforcement and trade routing.
The EU’s new sanctions package broadens the scope of maritime service prohibitions and tightens the net around illicit Russian oil moves. By expanding the shadow fleet blacklist to encompass hundreds of vessels, Brussels aims to squeeze access to insurance, financing, and other critical services for Russian flows. This structural change could compel traders to adjust routing, pricing, and risk management as they navigate a more constrained logistical environment.
Analysts assess how the measure interacts with the price cap architecture and alternative markets. While it raises the operational hurdles for moving Russian crude, it also heightens the potential for non-EU-flagged vessels and non-traditional insurance providers to step in, potentially raising costs and complexity. The practical enforcement challenge will be to align member states, ensure timely designation of vessels, and prevent evasion through opaque financial networks or reflagging.
Market watchers will examine how quickly the new framework translates into measurable reductions in Russian crude shipments through Europe and what substitution effects occur in Asia and other regions. The policy mix, combined with other sanctions developments, will influence risk premia on oil, insurance coverage availability, and the ability of buyers to source Russian barrels at discounted prices.
The global funds to invest with no stress
A curated set of globally diversified, low-risk funds demonstrates that risk-managed active options can coexist with broad exposure, challenging assumptions about active management under AI-driven volatility.
A pared-down roster of 16 funds in the global sector features strategies with low downside capture and solid risk-adjusted returns. Names such as Ranmore Global Equity and Thornbridge Global Opportunities stand out for their downside controls, while the overall cohort suggests room for balanced active exposures even as markets exhibit drawdown pressure. The performance offsets and risk metrics point to a defensive tilt within active management, offering investors a potential middle ground between passive diversification and high-conviction bets on AI-enabled winners.
Investors are cautioned to look at five-year durability and resilience through drawdowns to gauge whether these funds can sustain outperformance in risk-off environments. The concept of a "no-stress" global active sleeve rests on a mix of drawdown discipline, sector diversification, and the ability to capture value across cycles. If these funds demonstrate consistent down-cycle protection and meaningful upside capture in recoveries, they could become a core component of risk-management frameworks for multi-asset portfolios.
Analysts stress the importance of tracking position changes, sector tilts, and the contribution from non-mega AI beneficiaries. A shift in holdings or a sustained endorsement of semi- or software-oriented beneficiaries could signal a broader tilt in risk budgets toward more resilient parts of the AI value chain. Observers will watch for five-year performance trails, drawdown patterns, and how these funds perform when growth signals reassert themselves.
The global funds to invest with no stress (continued)
Two mid-cap funds shine on downside capture and risk-adjusted metrics, illustrating how selective active management can coexist with global diversification.
The inclusion of options like Ranmore Global Equity and Thornbridge Global Opportunities highlights a strategic approach to active management where downside protection is prioritised. The metrics suggest that even in an AI-driven market environment, thoughtful active bets can navigate volatility while maintaining a diversified exposure to global equities. This approach may appeal to investors seeking to balance risk and return amid a broad shift toward technology-enabled earnings yet confronted by price reversals and potential policy shocks.
Yet the evidence remains nuanced. While these funds show attractive downside capture statistics, their nearly five-year performance durability, liquidity, and drawdown characteristics will determine whether they can sustain the edge through multiple cycles. Market participants should monitor fund-level disclosures, performance attribution, and the coherence of sector tilts with the broader macro environment. If durability holds, a subset of active funds could become standard fare in diversified portfolios facing AI-driven volatility.
We are watching: 8-14 questions to watch
- Will GenAI adoption counterbalance rising costs in Germany across sectors?
- How will 2027 BOP-F diffusion signals alter productivity and wage dynamics?
- Do China’s ESPO flows to China persist if sanctions tighten further?
- Can Europe sustain the shadow fleet ban while maintaining secure energy supply?
- Will coal project approvals in China derail the renewables transition in the near term?
- How will Iranian sanctions alter tanker routing and insurance markets?
- Will Russia-China energy ties reallocate Asia’s oil corridor more decisively?
- Do Anglo and Teck deliver value from any future copper-oriented consolidation?
- How will the De Beers writedown interact with Anglo’s merger plans and asset sales?
- Will 49 Metals secure follow-on funding and successful assay results?
- Are offshoring or repurposing strategies for Manuka Resources viable alternatives?
- Could Berkeley’s Salamanca arbitration shape European uranium development policy?
- Will Glencore or Rio Tinto renew overtures for copper-scale consolidation?