Unanswered Questions To Watch
- How will leakage rates evolve as CAPMF coverage expands?
- Which sectors exhibit the strongest scale effects, and which respond to technique effects?
- Do non-market-based policies consistently reduce import carbon intensity across regions?
- How quickly could border carbon adjustments be designed to align with WTO rules?
- Will technology-support measures create durable shifts in import demand?
- How do leakage estimates change when longer horizons are analysed?
- Which countries are most exposed to sector-specific leakage risk?
- Do import baskets shift toward lower-carbon suppliers in response to standards?
- How will multilateral climate cooperation influence leakage dynamics?
- What role will exchange rates play in the scale of leakage across countries?
- Could coupling leakage data with firm-level trade data improve policy targeting?
- How reliable are CAPMF measures in rapidly evolving policy environments?
NASA begins practice countdown for first moonshot with astronauts in over 50 years
Two day dry run foreshadows a new era of crewed deep-space exploration.
NASA has begun a two-day practice countdown for fueling its new moon rocket, aiming at a lunar flyby mission with four astronauts aboard the Orion capsule. The exercise comes as the agency recalibrates timelines and readiness procedures for crewed deep-space missions after more than half a century since the last lunar landing. Officials emphasise that the drill centres on ground systems, safety reviews and countdown operations that will inform the next phases of mission development.
Analysts emphasise that a flawless countdown would be a material milestone for NASA’s timelines and for aerospace funding and policy signals. A successful test could bolster support for future crewed deep-space projects and help validate reliability of the propulsion, life-support and docking interfaces that underpin long-duration spaceflight. Observers caution that schedules are tight and dependent on a cascade of reviews, from fuel handling to crew readiness to mission assurance.
The countdown practice also serves as a gauge of how rapidly NASA can translate engineering milestones into public demonstrations of capability. While the mission concept remains in the planning and risk-assessment stage, the operational readiness exercised in February is likely to influence budgeting cycles and contractor planning across the space sector. Any deviations from the plan, including safety review outcomes or window adjustments, would be watched closely.
Watchers will track fueling milestones, countdown status, and any changes to launch windows or safety reviews as the team moves toward a more defined schedule for a potential lunar flyby mission. The event is being watched for signals about NASA’s broader approach to human exploration and its partnership with industry in revitalising crewed spaceflight.
The Slow and Steady Revival of Libya's Oil and Gas Sector
Libya reopens exploration and signs major deals to lift crude output toward 2 million barrels per day.
Libya is reopening to exploration with 22 blocks on offer, signalling a renewed push to revive its fossil fuel industry amid political fragmentation. Multi-billion-dollar development deals have been signed with TotalEnergies, ConocoPhillips, Chevron and Eni to accelerate crude output. Officials expect output to rise toward 2 million barrels per day, a level not seen in many years, supported by a bilateral framework with Egypt that aims to strengthen regional energy security and supply chains.
The rebound has the potential to reshape energy supply across Africa and beyond, attracting investment and potentially altering regional security dynamics. However, political risk remains high as rival authorities and security concerns persist. Industry insiders say the scale of capital commitments depends on the stability of governance, contract certainty, and the ability to safeguard major energy infrastructure in a contested environment.
Projections point to Libya leveraging nearby gas and oil assets to stabilise domestic power generation and expand export capacity, while also seeking to balance emissions considerations against the urgency of maintaining energy supply. The pace and sequencing of development will hinge on political stability, enforcement of agreements, and the continuity of large-scale international partnerships.
Monitoring will focus on production levels as well as the signing of MoUs and the progress of major project milestones. Analysts will also track howLibya’s political landscape evolves and whether stability improves investor confidence in the country’s long-term energy trajectory.
US DOE Seeks State Partnerships to Build Integrated Nuclear Sites
The Department of Energy seeks to create end-to-end Nuclear Lifecycle Innovation Campuses to diversify and secure fuel supply.
The Department of Energy has issued a request for information seeking state partnerships to develop end-to-end Nuclear Lifecycle Innovation Campuses. These campuses would host activities from fuel fabrication and enrichment to reprocessing, waste disposition, advanced reactors, data centre co-location and manufacturing. The ambition is to grow domestic nuclear capabilities toward a target of 400 GW by 2050, broadening LEU and HALEU supply chains and deepening energy security.
Proponents argue that integrated campuses could strengthen the U.S. nuclear-fuel supply chain and create a more resilient industrial base for the energy transition. Opponents caution about cost, siting, and potential proliferation concerns, stressing the need for careful governance and robust safeguards. The policy direction would tie into broader industrial policy objectives and regional economic strategies.
State responses will be critical in shaping the feasibility of regional coalitions and the scale of investment required. Observers will watch for formal commitments, funding structures, and the emergence of any cross-state collaborations to realise lifecycle campuses, including how co-located data centres and manufacturing clusters are planned to co-build capabilities.
Watch for responses from states, the evolution of funding mechanisms, and any public-private partnerships that emerge to realise lifecycle campuses. The coming months will reveal how the U.S. negotiates industrial policy with the energy and manufacturing base required to support a 2050 nuclear goal.
Canada Approves Construction of an Arctic Mineral Port on Baffin Island
Steensby Railway to Mary River unlocks higher offshore production and Arctic mineral access.
Canada has approved construction of the Steensby Railway on Baffin Island as part of Mary River iron ore expansion. The project aims to provide a southern transport corridor to a deep-water port, driving a significant step-up in offshore production to 22 Mt/yr from Mary River. The approval comes after community consultations with Inuit stakeholders, who supported regulatory licences needed to begin.
The Arctic infrastructure push is framed as a strategic move to unlock critical minerals from the High Arctic, potentially reshaping supply chains for metals essential to energy transition technologies. Environmental, Indigenous and logistical considerations will shape delivery, financing and operating constraints. Banks and investors will be watching the development timetable and procurement plans for port and rail components.
Industry observers emphasise that Arctic infrastructure is inherently high-cost and high-risk, but could deliver long-term gains if governance, environmental safeguards and community engagement are managed effectively. The project is positioned within broader efforts to diversify access to critical minerals and reduce dependency on more southern supply routes.
Monitoring will focus on construction start, funding announcements and permitting milestones, while community consultations continue to influence local acceptance and project timelines.
US Container Growth Vanishes With World Trade Flows Moving On
Tariffs drive diversification and nearshoring as 2025 container volumes slump globally.
US container imports finished 2025 with a four-month skid, and December volumes fell 6.4% year over year to about 1.9 million twenty-foot equivalent units. Tariffs are cited as a key factor in reshaping global supply chains, with firms diversifying sources and nearshoring to mitigate tariff exposure and supply-chain risk. The takeaway is a tepid 2026 growth outlook for world trade and continued reconfiguration of port activity and freight rates.
Analysts emphasise the near-term implications for port capacity planning, container shipping routes and global trade finance. For policymakers, the data underscore how tariff regimes can ripple into manufacturing cost structures and consumer prices, particularly for import-heavy sectors. The trend points to persistent demand for diversification and regional production networks to reduce exposure to tariff shocks.
Business groups and logistics operators are watching how greenfield and brownfield port investments respond to shifting trade patterns. The quality and speed of policy responses will influence competitiveness, cost pressures and the resilience of supply chains across North America.
99%+ of New US Capacity In 2026 Will Be Solar, Wind + Storage
The EIA projects renewables-led growth for new capacity in the United States.
The EIA projects that virtually all new capacity in 2026 will come from solar, wind and storage, signaling a structural transition in the U.S. power mix. This shift underlines the economic and policy incentives favouring renewables, energy storage, and grid-scale flexibility. It also carries implications for grid planning, fossil-fuel asset depreciation, and policies that shape the pace of deployment.
Analysts caution that the pace of deployment will hinge on permitting timelines, supply chains, and the affordability and reliability of storage technologies. The trend interacts with policy design, electricity pricing, and the economics of capacity markets as the country navigates a path toward a higher-penetration renewables future.
Industry observers will monitor capacity additions, the evolution of storage technologies, and any shifts in regulatory frameworks that could accelerate or slow the transition.
Trump Says India Will Buy Oil From Venezuela, Not Iran
Shifting sanctions postures and energy diplomacy could realign crude flows.
President Trump has asserted that India will source Venezuelan oil instead of Iranian oil, a statement that highlights evolving sanctions-related flows and the broader geopolitics of energy. The remark points to potential realignments in global oil markets and sanctions enforcement, with implications for near-term price dynamics and strategic reserves management.
Market watchers will observe whether actual flows reflect the rhetoric, alongside any policy moves that signal broader reorientations among major energy buyers. The statement injects another layer into an already complex global oil market environment.
Watch for concrete refinery sourcing announcements, sanctions developments, and data on Indian imports that verify or challenge the stated shift in trade flows.
OPEC+ Holds Oil Production Steady Despite Iran Strike Fears
A production freeze persists as tensions influence markets and policy calculus.
OPEC+ is maintaining a steady production stance amid renewed concerns about Iran-related tensions and potential supply disruptions. The decision underscores ongoing uncertainty in energy markets and keeps a lid on short-term price volatility while traders assess the geopolitical backdrop. The outcome has implications for capex, drilling activity, and energy-market pricing globally.
Industry participants will monitor price movements, production updates, and any shifts in sanctions or regional military postures that could alter the balance of supply and demand in the near term.