Oil closes lower but posts strong monthly gain
Oil closed lower for the day but logged its strongest monthly gain since 2022 as diplomacy signals around Iran suggested a potential de-escalation of risk premium.
Oil trades in the mid sixty dollar range, with WTI near 65.21 a barrel and Brent around 70.69 a barrel as the month closes. The market is digesting President rhetoric that points to openness to negotiations with Iran, a shift that has helped pull risk premiums from prices in the short term. Traders say the move is not a guarantee of lasting peace, but it does reduce the probability of an abrupt supply shock in the near term.
Geopolitics remains the dominant driver of energy prices, with risk premiums fluctuating as diplomacy signals emerge. Market observers note that the Strait of Hormuz continues to loom as a potential chokepoint, and any escalation would quickly reintroduce supply concerns. At the same time, the market is watching the trajectory of macro policy, including the Federal Reserve's rate outlook, which can compound price moves for crude and refined products.
Oil price action continues to be about the balance of risk and reward. Even as the latest headlines hint at a potential thaw, the underlying market remains tight, with supply constraints in key basins continuing to limit downside. Analysts emphasise that it will take clearer policy commitments and verifiable flows to translate diplomatic optimism into sustained price stability. For now, traders are likely to respond to headlines and to incremental data on inventories and refinery demand.
From a policy perspective, the near term will hinge on OPEC+ signalling and any concrete changes to sanctions regimes or waivers in major markets. If those moves materialise, price consolidation could extend; if not, risk premia could reassert themselves and push prices higher again. The immediate takeaway is a market that is sensitive to diplomacy while still anchored by underlying supply tightness and demand resilience.
The price action has clear implications for producers, consumers, and energy traders. For producers, hedging strategies will need to factor in potential volatility driven by geopolitical headlines. For refiners, the price backdrop will influence feedstock costs and margins as global flows adjust to evolving sanctions and diplomacy outcomes. And for policymakers, the key question is how to sustain market stability while pursuing strategic energy objectives in a complex, interdependent global system.
Greece warns shipowners against sailing near Iran coast
Greece instructs its fleet to avoid Iran’s coast and reroute toward the UAE and Oman as EU sanctions risk intensifies around Hormuz.
Greece, home to the world’s largest oil tanker fleet, issued advisories instructing shipowners to steer away from Iran’s coast and to prefer routes closer to the UAE and Oman when transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The notices, dated late January, come amid heightened attention to EU sanctions measures and the risk of renewed tensions in the region. The Greek shipping ministry confirmed the advisories were sent to the major shipowners’ associations and state-backed shipping bodies.
The advisories emphasise that more naval traffic is concentrated near Hormuz as the EU sanctions regime tightens and as the risk of disruption to Middle East crude flows increases. Greek shipowners, who own a substantial share of the global tanker fleet, are particularly exposed to shifts in routing that could lift insurance costs and extend voyage times. The context is a broader watch on how European policy responses to Russia, Iran, and broader regional disturbances are translated into shipping-market dynamics.
Industry participants will be watching whether additional state guidance follows, and whether insurers respond to new routing patterns with price changes or coverage adjustments. Any tightening of sanctions enforcement could accelerate changes in fleet utilisation and crew deployment, feeding through to freight rates and the cost of moving crude in the region. The shipping community remains attentive to developments in Hormuz traffic and the potential for further advisories should tensions escalate.
For energy markets, routing shifts translate into more complex logistics and potential knock-on effects on delivery times and storage in key hubs. Traders and refiners will assess whether higher insurance costs or longer voyages alter the economics of Middle East crude flows. In a sensitive backdrop for the region, any tangible policy move-whether a new sanctions measure or a broader market response-could reconfigure short-term supply dynamics and price signals.
EU weighs scrapping Russia oil price cap in favour of a services ban
EU discussions point to a shift from price cap enforcement to a comprehensive ban on maritime services for Russian oil, raising enforcement and displacement questions.
Brussels is quietly weighing a move to scrap the existing price cap on Russian oil in favour of a blanket ban on maritime services, including insurance and shipping, for crude cargoes. The proposed strategy would mark a more aggressive stance on enforcement, aiming to choke off the last-mile channels used to move Russian oil, particularly through shadow routes. The current price cap sits at 44.10 dollars per barrel for February 2026, with continuing debate about how to tighten control.
The shift would create a sharper enforcement regime, but it would also heighten risks of supply disruption and re-routing through less well-regulated corridors. European officials acknowledge the need for unanimity among member states, as some fear market disruption or retaliation from trading partners. The policy dilemma sits at the intersection of humanitarian concerns, energy security, and the strategic calculus of sanctions enforcement.
If implemented, the services ban could force Russian barrels into more opaque trade networks and higher-cost routing. Refiners in Europe and beyond may face new logistical hurdles and pricing volatility as traders seek to bypass the more rigorous enforcement regime. Observers emphasise that while a price cap has struggled to control revenue flows, a services ban could close loopholes but also create new frictions across the global oil trade.
Market watchers will watch for the EU’s final position, including member-state alignments and the timetable for any transition away from the price cap. The interplay with other sanctions regimes and with the global oil market will determine how quickly flows re-route and how pricing responds to new enforcement realities. The next months will reveal whether the bloc can achieve a tighter sanction regime without triggering disproportionate economic strain.
Brava Energia's $450 million M&A puts Brazil on the map
Brava Energia’s acquisition of Petronas’ stake in two offshore assets signals a pivotal shift in Brazil’s offshore consolidation trajectory.
Brava Energia has agreed to buy Petronas’ 50 percent non-operating stake in the Tartaruga Verde and Espadarte Module III assets for about $450 million, forming a broader offshore portfolio capable of delivering more than 100,000 boe per day in 2026. The deal solidifies Brava Energia’s position in Brazil’s offshore sector, following a wave of consolidation among independents that has altered the country’s energy map and could push Brazil into the upper tier of offshore producers.
Post-deal, Brava Energia will consolidate its offshore portfolio, potentially reshaping asset allocation from onshore to offshore assets. The move aligns with a broader sector trend where independents are expanding their footprints through bolt-on acquisitions, leveraging favourable policy environments and a managed risk profile to capitalise on high-quality offshore opportunities. The expected production trajectory will be watched closely as Brava integrates the new assets and optimises development plans.
Regulatory approvals and closing conditions will determine the speed of the transformation. Analysts will look for updates on operator appointments, drilling campaigns, and capital allocation to offshore expansion. The impact on domestic competition and on Brazil’s output will hinge on how quickly Brava scales up and how effectively it monetises the upside from deepwater opportunities. The deal also signals a broader appetite for offshore assets in a year that could see renewed activity among regional independents.
For counterparties and lenders, the transaction underlines the importance of robust project finance and risk assessment in Brazil’s offshore sector. It also raises questions about how the offshore portfolio will be balanced with existing onshore assets within Brava’s broader strategy. The market will be watching for commentary on production milestones, cost inflation, and the potential for further M&A as Brazil seeks to reshape its energy landscape in 2026.
US oil drilling remains subdued; rigs inch higher
U.S. drilling activity edges up modestly as broader demand signals and regional dynamics shape the capex outlook for shale producers.
Baker Hughes data show a two-rig rise to 546 active rigs, with oil rigs at 411 and gas rigs at 125. Week-on-week changes point to a cautious expansion in activity, even as the EIA reports a small weekly dip in crude production. The Permian basin remains the focal point of drilling activity, consistent with expectations that capex and rig deployment are stabilising after earlier volatility in the year.
The combination of elevated prices and policy uncertainties continues to influence producer behaviour. While activity has ticked up, it remains below levels that would indicate a broad acceleration in shale development. Market watchers say the near-term driver is supply discipline and the pace at which producers can translate price strength into drilling activity and completion rates. Any sustained uptick in rig counts would need accompanying data on production growth and capex plans to confirm a durable rebound.
Analysts emphasise that weekly rig data provide a timely barometer of activity, but must be interpreted alongside production figures and EIA projections. Short-term shifts in the rig count can reflect geological, logistical, or regulatory constraints as much as price signals. The near-term outlook will hinge on the pace of Permian completions, well returns, and drilling economics given evolving cost structures and financing conditions.
In the broader energy mix, drilling trends feed into price formation and volatility. If the rig count continues to edge higher, markets may anticipate tighter supply in certain basins, supporting prices in the event of any renewed supply risk. Conversely, if the expansion stalls, the market may reprice expectations for 2026 output and the trajectory of inventories. The coming weeks will reveal whether this cautious uptick becomes a more meaningful shift.
Exxon and Chevron lift oil production amid sanctions shifts
Major producers show resilience as output grows and sanctions policy shifts influence financing and market access.
Exxon reports an adjusted Q4 net income of $1.71 per share, underscoring the company’s earnings resilience. Chevron’s production reaches about 4.05 million barrels per day, up more than 20 percent year over year, with the group funding increased Venezuelan output via cash from oil sales. The interplay of sanctions policy and geopolitical risk continues to factor into investment decisions and production strategies across the sector.
Analysts note that output gains from large producers are occurring even as some sanctions regimes complicate investment flows and access to certain markets. The possibility of sanctions relief, particularly in relation to Venezuela, looms as a potential driver of incremental supply, while ongoing geopolitical tensions could again complicate financing and project timelines. The earnings backdrop for major oil companies remains shaped by geopolitical risk, commodity prices, and the pace of policy shifts.
Investors will watch quarterly results, debt management, and capital allocation as indicators of whether these majors can sustain growth amid a mixed global policy landscape. The resilience shown by Exxon and Chevron could influence broader market expectations for upstream investment, supplier relationships, and global supply dynamics in 2026. Market commentary will also focus on how any sanctions developments feed through to cash flows and shareholder returns.
For policy watchers, the implications extend beyond company earnings. Sanctions policy, export controls, and potential relief scenarios will continue to affect how these giants finance and execute projects. The next reporting cycles will be critical for assessing how much policy risk translates into production capacity and strategic repositioning across major oil companies.
MAX Power Mining identifies near term natural hydrogen play in Saskatchewan
MAX Power identifies Bracken as a near-term drilling target following a confirmed Lawson natural hydrogen discovery.
MAX Power Mining flagged a robust near-term Bracken prospect along the Saskatchewan-Montana border, with licensing underway to commence the Bracken well in February as part of its Grasslands project. The Lawson discovery has reinforced the geological case for repeatable, scalable natural hydrogen systems across the Grasslands trend. The Bracken well is positioned as a pivotal step in demonstrating basin-scale continuity for natural hydrogen, with potential to broaden Saskatchewan’s energy playbook.
The company emphasises the policy environment as favourable for near-term development, highlighting a clear pathway from discovery to potential commercialisation. In parallel, MAX Power is applying an integrated geological workflow and proprietary data to delineate migration pathways and structural controls that could underpin a broader set of prospects in the Grasslands corridor. Licensing activity in February will be a key early signal for how quickly the project advances toward first drilling.
Industry observers note that natural hydrogen represents a potential low-carbon energy vector with scale potential if proved viable over multiple plays. The Saskatchewan context matters because it signals a regional shift toward diversified energy portfolios within Canada, complementing existing hydrocarbons with alternative gas concepts. The near-term focus remains on securing licensing, securing regulatory approvals, and delivering initial drilling results that could validate a broader development plan.
For investors, the Bracken play offers a risk-weighted exposure to a new energy concept with upside if development costs remain manageable and if commercialization timelines can be met. The broader implications could influence provincial energy policy, regulatory processes, and the pace at which Canadian plays are evaluated for hydrogen and related gas opportunities. The coming drilling results will be watched closely to assess whether this is a durable, scalable pathway.
AIC Mines highlights ten quarters of copper-gold Eloise consistency
AIC Mines reports its tenth consecutive quarter of meeting Eloise mine guidance, underscoring operational steadiness and copper supply visibility.
AIC Mines disclosed its tenth straight quarter of meeting Eloise mine guidance in Queensland, reinforcing confidence in near-term copper and gold supply from Australia. The ongoing performance comes despite weather and external pressures, suggesting robust operational control and predictable throughput at the Eloise copper-gold project. Markets will be looking for further commentary on full-year results and exploration updates to confirm the sustainability of the run.
Analysts interpret the sustained delivery as supportive for copper pricing and for the broader Australian copper complex, which has faced a mix of weather-related risks and global demand dynamics. The company’s ability to hit guidance signals disciplined cost management and reliable ore grades, factors that can reassure investors seeking predictable cash flows in an otherwise volatile sector. The near-term outlook hinges on the release of full-year results and any updates to exploration activity in adjacent assets.
Industry observers are weighing whether the Eloise performance can be sustained amid evolving market conditions and potential shifts in input costs. Any guidance updates or changes to mine plans could influence investor sentiment and commodity price expectations. In the context of global copper supply, Eloise serves as a case study in reliability and capital discipline within the Australian mining sector. The forthcoming results will help calibrate expectations for 2026 production and cash flow.
Vizsla abduction raises security headwinds at Panuco project
Vizsla Silver reports the abduction of workers at its Panuco project site in Concordia, Mexico, prompting a security review and operational risk assessment.
Vizsla Silver confirmed that ten workers were abducted from the Panuco project site, with investigations now underway. The incident adds to concerns about security and operational risk for Mexican mining projects and could affect investor sentiment and project scheduling. The company emphasised that it is cooperating with authorities while assessing security protocols for site workers.
Industry watchers note that security incidents can disrupt access to sites, affect morale, and introduce delays in drilling programmes. The Mexico context matters for investor risk appetite in Latin American mining, where social and governance factors often feed into capital-allocation decisions. Market participants will monitor updates on investigations, safety measures, and any implications for production timelines.
From a risk-management perspective, companies operating in politically and security-sensitive environments are increasingly incorporating enhanced security measures, community engagement, and contingency planning to mitigate disruptions. The Panuco event will be watched for any policy or regulatory responses, including changes to security practices, guard deployment, and access control at project sites. Investor communications and insurance considerations will also be relevant as the situation develops.
For lenders and counterparties, the key question is whether security incidents translate into material risk adjustments or credit implications. The immediate operational impact remains tied to the ongoing investigation and any subsequent scheduling changes. The situation will be an early test of Vizsla’s resilience and crisis-management capabilities, as well as the broader risk environment for Mexican mining assets.
Rio Tinto and Chalco to acquire CBA from Votorantim
Rio Tinto and Chalco sign a definitive agreement to acquire controlling interest in Companhia Brasileira de Aluminio for about $902.6 million, creating a joint venture that reshapes Brazil’s aluminium market.
Rio Tinto and Chalco have entered a definitive agreement to acquire Votorantim’s controlling stake in Companhia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBA) for approximately $902.6 million. The deal forms a Rio Tinto-Chalco joint venture owning 33 percent and 67 percent respectively and triggers a mandatory tender offer for remaining shares. Regulatory approvals are pending as parties position to strengthen an integrated aluminium footprint and decarbonisation push.
The move expands Brazil’s aluminium capacity and adds a significant downstream vertical in a country aiming to deepen its presence in global aluminium supply chains. Analysts will assess the impact on domestic market structure, including potential shifts in pricing power, export mix, and the broader regional supply dynamics. The deal aligns with a broader trend of consolidation among major players seeking to improve efficiency and control across the value chain.
Regulatory scrutiny will shape the timing of closing, with approvals likely focused on anti-trust and market impact considerations. Markets will watch for details on governance arrangements, integration planning, and potential investment in feedstock access and processing capacity. The deal could influence Brazil’s position within the global aluminium market, particularly in relation to energy costs and smelter competitiveness as the industry transitions toward lower-emission production.
For stakeholders, the transaction offers a signal about the pace of industrial-scale consolidation in the aluminium sector and the strategic interest of major players in diversified, low-carbon supply chains. Observers will look for progress on closing timelines, any changes to domestic competition rules, and the implications for customer procurement strategies and project financing in 2026.
Narrows in on near-term Canada and global energy signals
MAX Power Mining’s Saskatchewan hydrogen project, EU policy dynamics, and major oil and mining sector M&A merge in a single week of developments.
Vizsla abduction raises security headwinds at Panuco project
Vizsla Silver reports abduction of workers at its Panuco project site in Concordia, Mexico, prompting a security review.
Rio Tinto and Chalco to acquire CBA from Votorantim
Rio Tinto and Chalco seal a deal to acquire Brazilian aluminium assets, reshaping the regional market structure.