Broadband comes to banks: Italy lending and information flows rise with faster internet
Acceleration of broadband access in Italy coincides with notable shifts in lending and borrower information processing.
A 2025 study examining Italy from 1998 to 2008 links faster internet to higher credit activity and tighter information channels within banks. The core metrics indicate that a one standard deviation reduction in connectivity near a branch reduces credit volume by about 4.4 per cent and lowers the chance of forming a new banking relationship by roughly 3.6 per cent, while average interest rates increase by about 6.5 basis points. The authors attribute roughly a third of the credit effect to supply-related factors, emphasising how information frictions can shape pricing.
The analysis highlights a direct information channel: increasing access to the Credit Register correlates with more frequent information requests during the life of a loan, suggesting stronger monitoring. Importantly, the impact appears most pronounced on information-sensitive lending, such as lines of credit, where banks can gather codifiable data over time rather than relying solely on initial screening. The study also notes that connected branches broaden their geographic reach, indicating a broader competitive footprint as connectivity improves.
The implications extend beyond the Italian case. If broadband enhances data flow and monitoring in lending, similar dynamics could emerge in other information-intensive sectors when high-speed networks become more widespread. The authors caution that results are contingent on local institutional factors and data quality, so corroboration across other countries and banking systems will be essential to map the generalisability of the mechanism.
The research underscores a broader narrative about digital infrastructure as a potential driver of financial inclusion and price formation. It also highlights the need for complementary data to capture downstream effects on credit terms, branch strategy and local credit competition. Policymakers and bank executives may wish to monitor how regional broadband rollouts correlate with lending behaviour and pricing in adjacent markets.
Geopolitics, tight investment to shape mining in 2026: WoodMac
Geopolitical shifts and capital discipline are shaping mining investment in 2026, with copper and resource nationalism in focus.
WoodMac forecasts a year defined by geopolitical volatility, policy realignments and more disciplined capital allocation in the metals and mining space. China’s 15th Five-Year Plan and the US mid-term political landscape are singled out as major drivers of volatility, with a non-linear energy transition continuing to unfold. Copper remains a focal point due to disruptions and rising nationalism around resource control, while the broader metals complex faces oversupply pressures in several markets.
The consultancy argues that policy signals and investor restraints will influence project funding, supply security and price dynamics across base and battery metals. China’s policy tilt toward consumer demand and possible stimulus measures will interact with US political dynamics to determine trade and tariff volatility. The energy transition, while robust, is portrayed as evolving in a non-linear fashion, potentially creating pockets of tightness in specific metal supply chains.
Investors and operators are advised to monitor policy signals from China and the outcomes of US elections, along with tariff volatility. The pace of capital consolidation versus the rate of new greenfield projects will help determine which players gain pricing power and which markets face longer development horizons. The report also highlights rising nationalism in resource-rich geographies as a factor that could slow or redirect investments.
The 2026 outlook suggests a tighter relationship between geopolitics and capital discipline, with smaller, more agile firms potentially leading on new project execution as major miners focus on consolidation. Substitution risks between copper and other metals may intensify if supply cannot respond quickly, and trade frictions could further complicate multi-region supply chains.
Europe eyes Brazil for rare earths as switch away from China accelerates
The EU seeks to diversify away from China for rare earths by partnering with Brazil, aiming for substantial domestic processing by 2030.
The European Union is pursuing diversification of critical minerals away from China, with Brazil identified as a key partner for rare earths. The bloc hopes to forge ties that support domestic processing capacity-targeting up to 40 per cent of processing domestically by 2030-and domestically mined output around 10 per cent. The move aligns with a broader push to secure supply chains amid competition with the United States for Brazilian output, intensifying the geopolitical competition around Brazil’s mineral wealth.
Diversification aims to underpin Europe’s energy transition and strategic autonomy, but processing remains the bottleneck. The EU is watching milestones in Brazil’s mine development, expansions in processing capacity, and any price hedging arrangements that might help insulate European buyers from Chinese price-setting. The dynamic is unfolding alongside EU partnerships with Ukraine, Australia, Canada and other partners, with Brazil a potential linchpin.
Analysts emphasise that, while Brazil holds large critical mineral resources, actual commercial feasibility hinges on infrastructure, logistics, processing throughput and policy clarity. The competition with the United States for Brazilian output adds a layer of strategic complexity to Brazil’s development timeline and investment attractiveness. European decision-makers will be watching for concrete capacity expansions and regulatory steps that could unlock accelerated progress.
Industry observers note that Europe’s aim to de-risk reliance on a single supplier will require a coordinated effort across mining, refining and domestic processing. If Brazil can scale processing capacity quickly and competitively, it could reshape global pricing dynamics and the balance of power in the rare earths market, potentially reducing China’s dominance in downstream processing.
Caribbean staging for Venezuelan crude signals a new export order amid sanctions
Venezuela’s Merey crude is being staged for export from Caribbean ports, suggesting new routes and sanctions dynamics.
Caribbean staging of Venezuelan Merey crude-around 2.5 million barrels held in Saint Lucia and Curacao-illustrates how sanctions-driven trading strategies are evolving. Washington appears to be backing traders to broaden destinations beyond China, with several large tankers offloading in the region. The development could alter regional flows and raise questions about sanction enforcement and secondary-market activity.
The movement of Venezuelan crude into Caribbean hubs signals a potential reorientation of crude trading routes and logistic networks. If more cargoes are unloaded in the Caribbean, observers will watch for further loadings, tanker movements and any signs of new sanctions enforcement actions. The shifts could have implications for global crude pricing, reserve management and regional energy security.
Analysts caution that the Caribbean story would gain clarity only with additional data on loadings, destinations and counterparties. Sanctions policy remains a live secondary factor; any tightening or broadening of export controls could quickly alter the calculus for traders and refiners. The evolving flows also test the resilience of sanctions regimes and the ability of foreign partners to adapt to the shifting risk landscape.
The development underscores how political actions in one region can influence trade routes and price signals globally. If Caribbean staging grows, it could prompt adjustments in shipping insurance, port activity and interregional pricing benchmarks as buyers seek to diversify away from more traditional supply lines.
Leviathan expansion clears final investment for Stage 1B; growth in Israeli gas
Stage 1B of the Leviathan project receives final investment decision, expanding capacity and shaping regional gas dynamics.
Leviathan partners have approved a 2.36-billion final investment decision for Stage 1B, lifting capacity to about 21 bcm per year. Production from Stage 1B is slated for 2029, with Stage 2 potentially increasing capacity to around 23 bcm per year pending further approvals. The expansion is presented as stabilising regional gas supply and enabling stronger export prospects, subject to regulatory and permitting milestones.
The decision marks a critical inflection point in Eastern Mediterranean gas dynamics, potentially tying into new export arrangements and regional energy security calculations. Stage 2 remains contingent on approvals, with investors watching for timelines and any shifts in intergovernmental approvals that could affect project sequencing. The development could influence pricing dynamics in regional markets and feed into broader energy diplomacy.
Analysts note that the Leviathan expansion can help diversify regional gas supply and reduce reliance on other routes. The growth trajectory will depend on the pace of subsequent approvals and the ability to secure interconnection and grid-readiness for any export destinations. The project also has implications for local supply chains, labour, and equipment procurement as next phases approach.
Observers will want to see how Stage 2 governance and permitting evolve, as well as any new export agreements that emerge alongside the Stage 1B ramp. The broader Eastern Mediterranean gas story could gain momentum if additional fields or infrastructure unlock flows to Europe or Asia.
India rises as UAE LNG supplier share grows; major long-term deals inked
India becomes ADNOC Gas’s largest LNG customer with a growing share, supported by long-term contracts and capacity expansion.
India is forecast to take about 20 per cent of ADNOC Gas LNG by 2029, with a long-term SPA worth between 2.5 and 3 billion dollars for 0.5 mtpa and a plan to raise ADNOC’s capacity to 15.6 mtpa by 2029. Indian entities, including HPCL, are contracting for 3.2 mtpa, underscoring a deepening energy partnership with the Gulf. This reflects India’s strategy to secure diversified gas supplies and to bolster baseload power through LNG imports.
The arrangement strengthens energy ties between India and the UAE, with broader implications for North American and Middle Eastern LNG trade links. It also aligns with India’s aim to balance growing demand with energy security and to expand private participation in downstream energy activities. The contracts could influence global LNG pricing, supply mix, and the evolution of regional gas markets as India scales its gas consumption.
Industry observers note that India’s LNG imports are expanding alongside domestic gas demand, reinforcing a trend toward greater gas-based power generation. The partnerships with ADNOC and other Gulf producers reflect a multi-source approach designed to mitigate supply risk and price volatility. The trajectory will depend on actual volumes delivered under long-term deals and the achievement of the 15.6 mtpa capacity target.
Watch for actual LNG volumes under HPCL and other Indian contracts, along with progress toward the 15.6 mtpa utilisation goal. The unfolding partnerships could reshape regional LNG flows and influence market expectations for 2029 and beyond.
CMA CGM retreats from Suez Red Sea corridor; ships rerouted via Cape of Good Hope
Carrier routing changes intensify near-term schedule risk as ships are diverted around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Suez corridor.
CMA CGM has reversed its plan to re-enter the Suez Red Sea corridor, instead routing three routes via the Cape of Good Hope. This move follows Maersk’s partial return and injects uncertainty into transit times and reliability for affected lanes. Analysts note observed tick-downs in transit times on some routes and expect rates and capacity to respond to the revised routing.
The shift has immediate implications for global routing and carrier confidence, potentially altering the competitive landscape among major shippers. Trade flows may adjust as carriers reassess intercontinental connections, with observable signs in timetable announcements, sailing patterns and port congestion dynamics. The near-term effect could be increased variability in schedules and pricing for transoceanic cargoes.
Industry watchers will be tracking whether these reroutings become a longer-term pattern or a temporary response to congestion and regulatory signals. If Cape of Good Hope routes persist, there could be a gradual rebalancing of capacity and cost effects, with knock-on impacts on global freight rates and market timing.
The development also raises questions about the resilience of global supply chains as carriers adapt to evolving geopolitical and operational conditions. Stakeholders will be looking for more data on the duration of these routing changes and any subsequent re-entry into Suez channels as security assumptions and port capacity adjust.
Long Island offshore wind project to resume after court ruling
Offshore wind progress on the east coast gains momentum as legal hurdles recede, with a major project edging toward construction and interconnection milestones.
A massive offshore wind project worth about $6 billion is poised to resume after a court rejected a national security justification raised by the previous administration. The ruling clears the path for continued development, interconnection planning and grid studies that will determine the speed at which the project can contribute to regional energy supply. The case underscores the political headwinds facing offshore wind alongside industry momentum.
Proponents argue the project demonstrates robust momentum for offshore wind despite political headwinds, reinforcing the case for green infrastructure investments. Grid readiness and interconnection capacity will be critical in determining the pace of development, with observers watching for updates on permitting timelines and procurement milestones. The news adds to a broader narrative about accelerating energy transition in North American markets.
Sceptics may look for signs of delays in interconnection agreements or regulatory hurdles that could slow down the build-out. Yet the court decision has shifted the odds in favour of timely progress, potentially influencing the pace of similar offshore wind schemes and their integration into regional power systems.
Industry participants will monitor the project’s timeline, interconnection decisions and grid upgrades required to accommodate additional offshore wind capacity. The outcome could influence private capital allocations, project finance terms and the strategic positioning of offshore wind developers in 2026.
India's 7 GWh BESS gigafactory commissioned
India’s largest utility-scale battery energy storage system factory becomes operational, expanding domestic storage capacity.
The commissioning of a 7 GWh gigafactory in India marks a significant expansion in utility-scale storage capacity, with potential implications for grid stability, frequency regulation and renewable integration. The facility is expected to ramp up and integrate with broader storage and EV ecosystems as part of a national push to bolster energy resilience and support decarbonisation goals.
Industry observers will watch for ramp-up timelines, supply-chain readiness and interconnection milestones to determine how quickly the new capacity translates into grid services and market offerings. The facility’s scale positions India as a more formidable player in the global storage supply chain, potentially impacting regional pricing dynamics and imports of storage components in coming years.
As with any large-scale manufacturing expansion, the challenge lies in securing skilled labour, reliable supply chains and regulatory approvals for grid connections. If these hurdles are managed well, the gigafactory could help accelerate the deployment of storage solutions across Indian power grids, driving higher renewable penetration and more stable electricity prices.
PwC AI ROI findings challenge hype
PwC’s AI ROI survey suggests a mixed picture for AI’s economic payoffs, tempering optimistic scenarios for widespread productivity gains.
A PwC survey of 4,454 leaders reveals that only 12 per cent report both lower costs and higher revenue from AI, while 56 per cent see no benefit and 26 per cent report cost reductions that come with higher costs for others. The survey also finds that 40 per cent believe their AI investments are sufficient to reach their goals. Taken together, the results challenge the AI hype cycle and temper expectations for rapid, universal productivity gains.
Analysts emphasise that these findings imply broad uncertainty around AI adoption, ROI and the timing of benefits across different sectors. The data points to a more nuanced reality where benefits accrue selectively and may be offset by implementation costs, integration challenges and governance considerations. Investors will be watching for follow-up data across industries to validate or refine these initial signals.
The results align with other industry commentaries that stress the heterogeneity of AI outcomes and the importance of concrete use cases, governance, and measurement frameworks. As firms adjust expectations, capital allocation for AI-related initiatives is likely to become more selective, with emphasis on robust pilots and demonstrable returns before scale.