Venezuelan crude flows expand Caribbean trade under US market signals
Caribbean destinations gain traction for Merey crude as US-linked traders push broader access
Venezuela’s Merey crude is moving into the Caribbean with cargoes discharging at Curacao and Saint Lucia, signalling a notable re-routing of flows under sanctions governance. The involvement of Trafigura and Vitol as market drivers for these shipments marks a shift toward Atlantic-focused trading channels that can bypass traditional Chinese-destined routes. The development comes as Washington leans on major trading houses to help market Caracas crude, potentially broadening purchaser base and shifting freight dynamics across the region.
The implications for regional energy security and sanctions enforcement are still unfolding. Observers emphasise that the cargoes and their destinations will influence freight rates and insurance costs, particularly on routes that have grown accustomed to higher oversight. If more Merey flows reach the Caribbean or other non-Chinese markets, refiners across the US Gulf and Atlantic could gain a firmer reference price for certain heavy grades, while rivals track the balance between policy risk and market opportunity.
Data on cargo volumes and ship movements will be essential to confirm whether this is a temporary reallocation or a longer-term reconfiguration of Caracas’ export strategy. Analysts warn that any significant broadening of destination footprints would require careful monitoring of sanctions posture and of the ability of traders to secure supply against a shifting demand landscape. In the near term, the market will watch for new confirmations of involved counterparties and the timing of additional sailings.
This evolving trade pattern sits at the intersection of geopolitics, sanctions policy and commodity flows. If sustained, it could influence regional freight pricing, counterparty risk assessments, and the negotiating leverage of Caribbean buyers seeking alternate supply arrangements. The narrative remains contingent on policy signals from Washington and the willingness of market participants to structurally commit to broader exposure to Caracas crude.
WoodMac 2026 metals outlook stresses geopolitics, nationalism and substitutions
Geopolitics and energy transition demand drive selective risk discipline in metals investment
Wood Mackenzie’s 2026 metals outlook sketches a volatile year ahead, with geopolitics, energy transition demand and capital discipline shaping returns. Copper is highlighted as a standout, while rising resource nationalism may extend project timelines. The analysis points to a more selective and risk-aware approach to mining investments, with possible consolidation in response to political risk. Observers will be watching copper supply constraints and policy shifts for indications of how capex is planned and deployed through the year.
The forecast underscores the persistence of geopolitical frictions and export controls as a meaningful driver of project timelines and investment appetite. Companies with exposure to copper and related supply chains could see divergence in performance based on how well they manage geopolitical risk, capital discipline, and access to financing. The potential for consolidation among producers and developers is framed as a response to rising political risk in certain jurisdictions.
Market participants should monitor copper supply constraints, policy pivots and capex discipline indicators through 2026. Any sign of tighter permitting regimes or delayed starts in major copper developments would recalibrate risk-reward calculations for mining portfolios. By contrast, continued demand from energy transition and infrastructure spending could support copper and related metals, provided supply constraints and political risk are manageably priced.
The narrative also invites scrutiny of regional policy actions, procurement cycles, and the pace of investment in alternative materials or substitutions. If nationalism and localisation trends intensify, investors may reward firms with diversified, geographically balanced asset bases and disciplined capital management. The year will reveal whether 2026 becomes a moment of disciplined recalibration or a window of intensified risk for base metals investors.
EU/UK price cap on Russian crude tightened to 44.10 a barrel
Price cap dynamics tighten Moscow revenue while preserving flows, with enforcement watch on wind-downs
The seaborne price cap on Russian crude has tightened to 44.10 per barrel, effective in the EU from January 31 2026 and in the UK from February 1 2026, with wind-down periods for existing contracts. The cap sits roughly 15 below Urals over a 22-week reference period, a structure designed to restrict Moscow’s revenue while avoiding complete disruption to global flows. Market participants expect continued attention on enforcement actions and the pace of wind-down completions as the regime asserts its grip on sanctions compliance.
Observers note that the cap is part of a broader strategy to constrain Russian energy revenue without triggering a seismic disruption to global oil markets. The dynamic cap and winding-down process create a moving target for traders and buyers seeking to align with sanctions requirements while maintaining access to crude. Regulatory signals, screening of counterparties, and the pace of contract terminations will be visible indicators of how enforceable and effective the cap will be in practice.
Traders will monitor wind-down progress and any ancillary measures that accompany the cap. The potential for regime shifts or new sanctions actions adds to the complexity of risk management for importers, refiners, and financial counterparties. Observers cautioned that while the cap aims to curb Moscow’s fiscal capacity, the actual impact will depend on how quickly wind-downs complete and how compliant buyers adjust their sourcing strategies.
Lupaka Gold arbitration: Potential state asset seizures highlight sovereign risk
Arbitration outcomes translate into leverage in investment disputes with state assets at stake
Lupaka Gold may seek to seize Peruvian state assets to recover a 67 million arbitration award tied to protests that disrupted its Invicta project. The ICSID ruling and accrued interest create a potential leverage point for investors in disputes with sovereigns, spotlighting sovereign risk and the practical consequences of arbitration outcomes. The case illustrates how awards can translate into tangible remedies beyond the courtroom, with implications for project economics and future investment decisions in contested environments.
Peru payment timelines and any asset seizure actions will be critical indicators to watch, alongside countermeasures that could be pursued by the state. The broader implication concerns how arbitration results interact with asset security, foreign investment risk, and the stability of host-country commitments to private sector projects. Observers emphasise that sovereign risk remains a central feature of the mining landscape in jurisdictions with heightened political sensitivity.
Traders and miners alike will want to assess how Peru responds to any arbitration-based leverage and whether countermeasures alter the calculus for future arbitral disputes. The evolving dynamics may feed into credit assessments, equity valuations and the willingness of project developers to engage in higher-risk environments. The outcome could shape expectations for how similar cases are handled in the region going forward.
Montage Kone accelerates Côte d’Ivoire Kone gold project toward late 2026 production
Scale and timing tighten near-term cash flow expectations in West Africa’s improving mining landscape
Montage Gold says first gold at Kone in Côte d’Ivoire is now expected in Q4 2026, not 2027, with capex of over 545 million dollars and about 63 percent of capital committed. The project targets 300,000 ounces of annual output, with indicated resources of 269 million tonnes at 0.63 g/t for 5.49 Moz and inferred 43 million tonnes at 0.51 g/t for 0.704 Moz. A 99,000-metre drilling plan supports a pace-up in resource validation ahead of development milestones.
The move signals near-term cash flow potential and asset scale in West Africa’s improving mining environment. The company has framed the project as a de-risked restart with an emphasis on infrastructure readiness and staged ramp-up, helping to align financing with market conditions. The updated schedule will feed into project finance discussions, while ongoing drilling results in Q1 2026 are expected to refine the resource statement and project economics.
Investors will watch for the Q1 2026 resource update to confirm the scale of the asset and the pacing of the drilling programme. Capex management and the timing of underground development will similarly be scrutinised, given the importance of maintaining momentum through late 2026 as construction proceeds. The Kone project’s evolution reflects broader investor appetite for mid-tier West African assets with sizeable scale and defined development pathways.
Montage’s progress sits within a West Africa mining landscape that has shown improved project visibility and returns in recent quarters. If the company sustains its drill-out, the project could join a cadre of West African assets delivering cash flow sooner than peers, reinforcing Côte d’Ivoire’s position as a growing hub for mid-tier precious metals development. The next round of announcements will help determine how this asset sits within Montage’s broader growth strategy.
London Gateway’s growth fuels UK port leadership ambitions
DP World’s London Gateway accelerates UK port capacity, signalling a strategic shift in European gateway role
DP World’s London Gateway posted over 3 million TEU in 2025 with 52 percent throughput growth, advancing the UK toward becoming the largest port by throughput as it supports a broader 1 billion investment for two all-electric berths and a 170 million BOXBAY high bay storage system. The development complements other capacity upgrades and positions the UK as a more dynamic gateway to Europe and beyond, supported by infrastructure investments that are designed to increase efficiency and resilience.
Industry observers note that the port’s expansion aligns with a broader UK strategy to enhance trade capacity and diversify supply chains. The 2026 outlook will be informed by throughput data, new intermodal connections, and the pace of subsequent developments at neighbouring hubs such as Southampton. If London Gateway continues to outperform, it could recalibrate regional port dynamics and attract more cargo volumes to the UK market.
The port growth stories unfold alongside policy signals that affect freight flows and the balance of regional trade routes. Investors will watch for further announcements on capacity, electrification of berths, and the integration of new storage and handling capabilities into the UK’s broader port network. The evolving competitive landscape could redefine Europe’s gateway hierarchy and influence investment decisions in related logistics and supply chain sectors.