Oils glut and geopolitics drive oil-market signals
Oilprice’s Irina Slav frames a supply-dominant price narrative, with a 2.3 mb/d surplus forecast for 2026 and sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela shaping pricing. The piece argues price dynamics will hinge more on supply discipline and demand growth than geopolitical flare-ups.
Markets continue to debate whether relief will come from demand acceleration or tighter supply. The external balance of oil is increasingly defined by the stubborn surplus, with the U.S. shale growth rate decelerating and sanctions restricting several traditional supply lines. Yet price direction remains tethered to how policy authorities calibrate production and export constraints, and to how mantle players adjust hedges and investment strategies in response to evolving forecasts.
The narrative emphasises a clear transmission channel: if EIA/IEA outlooks tilt toward slower U.S. shale expansion and OPEC+ keeps its course, price pressure could ease, but any shift in sanctions or geopolitical disruption could re-ignite risk premia. The broader implication is a market environment that prizes discipline and credible demand signals over episodic geopolitical catalysts. As the data stream evolves, the market will test whether the glut thesis holds or whether supply disruptions reassert themselves.
- Will EIA/IEA outlooks or new OPEC production moves tilt the balance toward a tighter market than the current glut narrative suggests?
- How do sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela interact with global stockpiles and refinery throughput to shape price floors and ceilings?
- What are the near-term indicators of U.S. shale capex adaptation if price signals move back toward the $50s?
- Which regions demonstrate the strongest hedging response to persistent oversupply concerns?
Cuba’s energy crisis worsens sans Venezuelan oil as Mexico steps in
Cuba’s energy vulnerability deepens after shipments from Venezuela stop, with Mexico emerging as a key supplier. The 2025 data point places Mexican imports at about 12,284 bpd and Venezuelan shipments at 9,528 bpd, underscoring Caribbean energy fragility.
The shift to Mexico’s crude supplies signals a reordering of Caribbean energy security, with implications for bilateral diplomacy and regional energy pricing. The U.S. policy posture toward Cuba and Venezuela adds an additional layer of uncertainty, potentially constraining the options available to Cuba and its partners. The near-term outlook hinges on Mexico’s ongoing role, potential policy moves in Washington toward Cuba or Venezuela, and the durability of Mexico’s commitment to supplying Cuba in a period of heightened geopolitical contest.
What should be watched closely is how import sources evolve over the next quarters and whether new arrangements emerge to reduce Cuba’s exposure to single-market dependence. If Mexico sustains elevated volumes, Cuba could stabilise its energy load, but if Mexico’s supply shifts or policy changes restrict flows, the island could confront intensified shortages and higher price volatility.
- Will shifts in U.S. policy toward Cuba or Venezuela constrain or enable Mexico’s Cuba-facing supply role?
- How resilient is Mexico’s crude supply to external shocks and domestic demand volatility?
- Are there signs of new diversified suppliers entering Cuba’s energy mix in response to the evolving geopolitical backdrop?
- What changes in Cuban import pricing or tariff policy would indicate a structural re-pricing of Caribbean energy?
Brazil’s gas-security push hinges on TAG/NTS upgrades and SEAP LNG links
Brazil’s gas strategy is framed around TAG and NTS network enhancements, including a 3 MMcmd capacity boost via the Cacimbas-Catu compression, raising total capacity to 12.4 MMcmd. SEAP II is in force at 10 MMcmd with potential to add 6-7 MMcmd from SEAP I, while Raia pre-salt gas could reach 16 MMcmd by 2028, supported by onshore LNG integration plans.
The expansion aims to replace LNG imports in the Northeast and bolster domestic gas security across the Southeast and Northeast. The regulatory and project milestones-FID timings, capex approvals, and Raia timelines-will determine whether Brazil gains meaningful headroom to reprice regional gas and diversify its energy mix. With TAG and NTS aligned to new pre-salt supply and storage modalities, Brazil stands at a pivotal juncture between import-dependence and domestic-gas-driven pricing.
Looking ahead, the critical tests are the FIDs for SEAP I and II, the regulatory sign-offs for Raia’s export-pipeline capacity, and the timing of onshore LNG integration. The inter-network links and storage projects add a buffer for volatility, but execution risk remains a constant companion in large-scale gas infrastructure.
- Will SEAP I reach FID and what are the capex hurdles for Raia’s 16 MMcmd timeline?
- Can the onshore LNG integration plans be accelerated to displace LNG imports sooner?
- How will regulatory reviews affect interconnection milestones and the broader regional gas balance?
- What price dynamics emerge as domestic gas flows start to anchor pricing in the Southeast and Northeast?
Egypt accelerates renewables with $1.8 billion of deals to broaden clean-energy capacity
Egypt signed deals totalling $1.8 billion to develop a 1.7 GW solar plant with 4 GWh of storage and PPAs for 1.95 GW of clean power and 3.9 GWh of storage, with Scatec and Sungrow involved as the country pursues 42 percent renewables by 2030.
The deals mark a material pivot in Egypt’s energy mix, with manufacturing growth potential and a possible foray into green hydrogen and regional energy exports. Grid integration and pricing clarity will determine how quickly these assets are mobilised and monetised within the broader energy-economy framework. The push aligns with regional energy diversification and demonstrates a willingness to mobilise international capital for large-scale renewables.
The expansion also raises questions about local manufacturing capacity, solar-plus-storage integration, and the regulatory regime governing PPAs and tariffs. If Egypt can crystallise stable pricing and secure reliable capacity payments, it could lock in a higher renewables share and catalyse further investment in storage and green export routes. The near-term watchpoints include PPA terms, grid-connection timelines, and policy clarity on what price support will look like for new solar capacity.
- Will PPA terms and grid integration conditions translate into a credible pathway to 42 percent renewables by 2030?
- How quickly can local manufacturing scale to support 1.7 GW of solar capacity and 3.9 GWh of storage?
- What tariff and pricing framework will underpin the long-term economics of these projects?
- Are there opportunities to extend the programme into green hydrogen or regional energy exports?
Kinross greenlights three US builds for 3 million oz
Kinross Gold has approved three US growth projects-Round Mountain Phase X, Bald Mountain Redbird 2 in Nevada, and a restart of Kettle River-Curlew in Washington-to add about 3 million oz between 2028 and 2038, with a combined after-tax IRR of 55% and an NPV around $4.1 billion at $4,300 per oz.
The package reinforces Kinross’s low-cost growth thesis and elongated mine life, supported by a total budget of $1.5 billion and about $425 million of 2026 capex. The plan foregrounds underground development, risk reduction via contractor-supported initial ramp-up, and a strategy of capital discipline to avoid execution risk. If the forecasted returns hold under various price trajectories, Kinross could sustain a long-run production cadence through the late 2020s and early 2030s.
Near-term execution will hinge on permitting and early-stage capex, with first production targeted around 2028 at Round Mountain. The broader program points toward a portfolio tilt toward high-grade, stable-ore platforms that can sustain cash flow through sensitive price cycles. The decision to fund internally and maintain a flat capex trajectory through 2026-2029 signals a measured approach to risk and growth.
- How robust are the IRR and NPV assumptions if gold prices diverge from the $4,300/oz baseline?
- Which permits and early-stage approvals pose the greatest execution risk for the three projects?
- Will the firm’s capital-allocation strategy adapt to potential shifts in discount rates or financing costs?
- How will Round Mountain’s first production in 2028 influence Kinross’s broader regional portfolio?
Kinross to invest US$1.4B in three US growth projects
Kinross Gold plans US$1.4 billion of investment across three US growth projects-Round Mountain Phase X, Curlew, and Bald Mountain Redbird 2-aiming for roughly 3 million gold-equivalent ounces by 2038, with an average annual output around 400,000 oz from 2029 to 2031.
Together with the 3 Moz target, the plan signals a strategic shift toward a US-centric growth engine with meaningful long-run output. The ongoing ramp, regulatory clearances, and interconnection timelines will shape the cadence of cash-flow inflection and the ability to sustain a broader pipeline in North America. Kinross’s ambition leverages the low-cost profile of its US mines and geopolitical certainty to anchor its expansion strategy.
Construction timelines are laid out with production ramp starting around 2028-2029, and with a steady output profile that could extend the mine life well into the 2030s. Capex discipline remains central to the execution narrative, with a stated flat capex path for the near term and careful attention to payback horizons as project-scale decisions unfold. The market will watch closely how this three-project package translates into shareholder value and resilience in the face of price volatility.
- Do the three projects preserve Kinross’s balance-sheet flexibility if gold prices move meaningfully from the assumed baseline?
- What regulatory hurdles could alter the timeline for opening Round Mountain and Curlew?
- How does the Curlew restart integrate with the regional mining ecosystem and supply chain capacity?
- What are the implications for Kinross’s dividend and capital-return policy if initial runs exceed or miss expectations?
Rio Tinto and BHP plan Pilbara iron ore collaboration
Rio Tinto and BHP have announced non-binding MoUs to jointly mine up to 200 Mt of iron ore at the Yandicoogina and Yandi deposits, with a conceptual study and an ultimate final investment decision early next decade, subject to regulatory and traditional-owner approvals.
The potential collaboration would extend mine life and enable shared infrastructure to capture incremental value from adjacent deposits. The venture would hinge on a delicate mix of approvals, community engagement, and regulatory alignment in a market where supply discipline and project economics are tightly interwoven with price dynamics. If the study produces a viable path to shared scale, the pair could unlock a step-change in operating efficiency and logistics, reinforcing the Pilbara’s strategic role in global iron ore supply.
Order-of-magnitude study results and downstream approvals will drive decision-making. The timing of the final investment decision will be a key signal of certainty in an otherwise cyclical market. Shared infrastructure could lower unit costs and extend asset life, but it will also require transparent governance around joint venture operations and alignment of interests across both companies.
- What would be the most critical regulatory or Traditional Owner approvals that could delay a final investment decision?
- How would shared infrastructure affect project economics and ramp efficiency for both operators?
- What governance framework would ensure balanced risk-sharing and operational discipline in a joint venture?
- How might this collaboration influence broader Pilbara pricing dynamics and export logistics?
Dalaroo identifies district-scale critical minerals at Blue Lagoon, Greenland
Dalaroo Metals reported a district-scale critical minerals system at the Blue Lagoon project, with strike-scale sampling showing elevated hafnium, zirconium, and REEs, alongside low uranium signals and robust high-grade REE results, backed by recent A$ funding rounds.
The mineral suite-hafnium, zirconium, and REEs-positions the Greenland prospect as a potential magnet for follow-on exploration and investment. The reporting underscores a broader Arctic minerals thesis: Greenland’s district-scale systems could catalyse additional exploration spend and attract capital despite the regulatory and logistical headwinds that accompany frontier-resource plays. The discovery benefits expand the narrative beyond base metals and diversify Greenland-facing risk and opportunity.
Planned infill sampling, trenching, and shallow drilling will be pivotal in validating the district-scale hypothesis and defining resource geometry. If subsequent results confirm robust mineralisation and manageable uranium thresholds, the project could attract strategic partners and accelerate early-stage development. The Greenland mineral story remains contingent on permitting, community engagement, and access to infrastructure that can carry high-capex projects toward feasibility.
- How do follow-up sampling results alter the resource model and potential mining method?
- What are the environmental and regulatory hurdles most likely to constrain early-stage exploration in Greenland?
- Which partners would be best positioned to advance a district-scale mineral system into production?
- What triggers would decisively convert exploration potential into a defined development plan?
Suez route returns; Houthis threaten maritime security
Container lines gradually resume operations on the Suez route as tensions ease, but the Houthis continue to threaten regional assets, signalling ongoing volatility in Red Sea shipping and surveillance requirements for global trade lanes.
The resumption of services by CMA CGM and Maersk marks a turning point in route normalisation, contributing to a partial easing of container-rates pressures. Yet the persistent security risk keeps a premium for risk management in maritime logistics, with carriers recalibrating schedules, routing flexibility, and cost baselines in response to ongoing threats. The sector now faces a balancing act between restored capacity and the volatility of risk premiums tied to security events.
Shaping the next few months will be the pace of schedule reinstatement, the quality of security updates, and passengers of rate recovery across routes dependent on the Suez canal corridor. For shippers, the window for stabilisation hinges on credible security guarantees and predictable vessel-traffic patterns, particularly as demand re-emerges after a period of disruption.
- How quickly will schedule normalisation translate into rate relief for container shippers?
- What security measures and international coordination will be required to sustain the return to full capacity?
- Are there signs of longer-term supply-chain realignments away from chokepoints toward alternative routes?
- Which operators emerge as the most resilient beneficiaries of the route normalisation?
Dominion Energy injunction to restart Virginia offshore wind
Dominion Energy obtained a court injunction allowing the restart of the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project, a roughly $11.2 billion development featuring 176 turbines and a 2.6 GW capacity.
The ruling provides a critical pulse for offshore wind policy direction and project financing, signalling a renewed trajectory for the United States’ largest offshore wind initiatives. Restart momentum matters for grid reliability and electrification timelines, and it could influence the broader policy environment around major renewable infrastructure in public-private partnerships. The project’s continued progression will hinge on permitting cadence, supply chain readiness, and interconnection sequencing to generate timely capacity.
As the project moves toward resumed construction, stakeholder attention will pivot to how quickly generation comes online, the timing of cash-flow infusions, and any subsequent regulatory or legal headwinds. A successful restart would reinforce momentum for large-scale offshore wind, while any delays could amplify concerns about permitting friction and the resilience of policy support.
- What are the next milestones for construction, commissioning, and grid-connection timelines?
- How will project financing respond to evolving interest rates and inflation expectations?
- What risk management steps will safeguard against supply-chain disruptions or permitting setbacks?
- Could the Virginia project set a template for future offshore-wind deployment in the United States?
Narrative fault lines, by story
- Tariff policy versus Arctic resource ambitions: The Greenland tariff front creates a dual pressure: policy-inflation uncertainty and a potential cartel-like reconfiguration of Nordic and Atlantic trade flows. The strongest divergence concerns whether a Greenland deal can stabilise the policy landscape or catalyse further fragmentation of trade arrangements.
- Energy security versus green transition: The Cuba-Mexico shift and Brazil’s gas-network expansion illustrate how resource security competes with decarbonisation timelines. The tension lies between immediate supply assurances and longer-run demand for domestic gas, renewables, and storage.
- Frontier resources and the politics of permitting: Greenland’s Blue Lagoon and Kinross’s US projects illuminate how exploration, permitting, and governance shape early-stage risk. The narratives diverge on whether frontier mineral systems can be de-risked quickly enough to justify aggressive capex, or whether capital markets require prohibitive timelines.
- Shipping risk versus route normalisation: Suez and Red Sea dynamics reveal how geopolitical frictions translate into real-world carrier schedules and rates. The central tension is between restoring efficient corridors and maintaining the resilience of global trade against episodic risk events.