Premortem on AI in K-12 Classrooms: Urgent guardrails, lasting learning
The Brookings premortem surveys 50 countries and a broad literature base to push a consequential question: can AI augment learning without hollowing out cognitive and emotional development?
The Brookings analysis presents AI in schools as a double-edged instrument. It highlights tangible benefits where AI supports reading and writing, tailor-fits passages to learner level, and protects privacy in crowded classrooms, while stressing that tools should augment, not replace, human teaching. A cited US study signals potential productivity gains for teachers, with time saved translating into more space for feedback, mentorship and higher-order tasks. Yet the study also frames a cognitive hazard: when students surrender thinking to machines, they may lose grip on truth, argumentation, and exposure to diverse perspectives.
Beyond cognition, the report foregrounds social-emotional risks and equity concerns. The availability and reliability of AI tools could widen gaps between resource-rich schools and underfunded districts, with privileged communities gaining earlier and better access to sophisticated models. The authors emphasise that AI’s value accrues when it provokes curiosity and intrinsic motivation, and when it challenges students to think rather than to photocopy solutions. The Brookings line of policy recommendations is explicit: broaden AI literacy for teachers and learners, encourage co-design partnerships between governments and industry, and implement governance guardrails that protect privacy and mental well-being.
The premortem’s urgency is sharpened by its framing as a time-sensitive intervention rather than a post hoc reckoning. It marks a boundary between experiment and entrenchment: allowances made today become the baseline for tomorrow’s expectations. To policymakers, school leaders and families, the central implication is clear: act now to transform AI’s classroom potential into durable, equitable learning outcomes. The Brookings project thus sits at the intersection of curriculum design, technology governance and social equity, offering a roadmap that aligns innovation with the development of thinking, identity and citizenship in young people.
The synthesis across regions and voices suggests a common frontier: how to ensure AI remains a tool for augmenting human cognition without corroding the very capacities it seeks to raise. In practical terms, schools must porter into the next phase with structured curricula around critical thinking and media literacy, explicit governance on data privacy, and a commitment to equal access to reliable, high-quality AI resources. The debate is not whether AI should enter the classroom, but how its integration can be steered so that learning remains resilient, social, and freely inquisitive.
Oil in An Age of Oversupply: Venezuela’s shocks, monetary orders, and AI-driven energy demand
A global energy backdrop where geopolitical shocks produce volatility, not price spikes, amid an oversupplied world and a dollar-dominated financial architecture.
In Samuel Hertz’s analysis, Venezuela’s political shocks register with markets less as price-dislocaters than as volatility signals. Global demand sits near 100 million barrels per day, while Venezuela’s exports hover around 500,000 barrels per day, underscoring a supply disruption that is insufficient to tilt prices given abundant US production and a cautious OPEC+ posture. The piece argues that the immediate price impact of Maduro’s detention is muted, while the longer-lasting significance lies in strategic recalibrations around monetisation and diversification of energy flows.
The narrative maps monetary dimensions alongside traditional energy considerations. Venezuela’s push to price oil in non-dollar currencies and promote a petro cryptocurrency appears as a test case for the dollar’s dominance in a shifting global finance order. Washington’s response helps preserve dollar supremacy, reinforcing a bifurcated investment climate: conventional upstream plays remain disciplined and efficiency-focused, while capital flows increasingly target grid modernization, renewables and data-centre-driven energy demand. Geopolitical events around Venezuela thus carry limited near-term price impulse but important implications for the architecture of global energy finance and monetary order.
The energy outlook drawn here foresees a bifurcated investment environment where physical supply and financial architecture diverge in the near to mid-term. Traditional oil and gas investment is likely to prioritise efficiency and brownfield expansion, while longer-term capital tends toward the power grid, energy storage, and alternative fuels that enable AI-driven demand growth. If the Venezuela scenario offers any guidance, it is that the linkage between geopolitics and macroeconomics will likely translate political risk into volatility rather than sustained price re-pricing in a world already saturated with supply. The piece thus situates energy strategy within a broader realignment of money, security, and digital transformation in a high-technology economy.
Pulling the threads together, the analysis implies that the most material risks for markets are not sudden price surges but the way geopolitics recalibrates monetary order and energy security. The trendlines point toward a future where AI-enabled demand frames capital allocation toward grid resilience, storage and decarbonisation, while traditional hydrocarbons adjust to efficiency constraints and disciplined capital spending. Venezuela, as both a geopolitical chatter point and a symbol of broader financial shifts, becomes a lens on how energy, finance and technology policy converge in a world of oversupply and AI-driven transformation.
Bangkok to Nong Khai Tragedy: Safety, oversight, and momentum in cross-border infrastructure
A high-profile crane collapse on a moving train exposes safety and governance gaps in a flagship cross-border corridor, threatening project momentum and regional development.
The Bangkok-Nong Khai High-Speed Railway project, a China-backed US$5.4 billion corridor, finds itself at a critical inflection point after a deadly crane accident that killed at least 30 people. Investigations hinge on safety standards, regulatory oversight, and the effectiveness of risk management in large-scale infrastructure. The State Railway of Thailand has signalled accountability and legal action against the principal contractor, underscoring that the incident could prove costly given the line’s strategic importance for regional connectivity.
Officials point to broader concerns about enforcement and risk management across major cross-border ventures, where the lure of speed and integration sometimes outruns incremental safety improvements. The accident puts a spotlight on whether procurement governance, quality assurance, and on-site supervision are sufficiently robust to sustain a project of this scale. If regulatory concentrations falter, the momentum of a corridor intended to knit Bangkok with Laos could stall, with knock-on effects for regional competitiveness and future cross-border collaborations.
Beyond immediate accountability, the episode raises questions about the sustainability of private sector-led, cross-border infrastructure programmes. The political and financial stakes-both in Thailand and among the foreign partners-mean that the cost of safety lapses extends beyond line-items and into reputational and strategic considerations. As governments weigh the balance between rapid execution and careful oversight, the Bangkok-Nong Khai incident may recalibrate expectations for project risk, oversight regimes, and the governance architecture that underpins large-scale regional integration.
The episode also touches on the broader friction between public ambition and risk management in infrastructure megaprojects. While the line’s strategic value remains intact, the collision between speed and safety invites a recalibration of how authorities calibrate contractor accountability, regulatory checks, and funding consequences. The path forward will depend on a credible enforcement framework, transparent investigations, and a renewed commitment to risk-aware governance that can sustain momentum while preserving public trust and safety.
First UK Town of Culture: Local pride as a policy tool with a 2027 horizon
A nationwide competition seeks to inject civic energy into smaller places, with a multi-year rollout and a potential cascade of local benefits and policy tensions.
Britain’s First-ever Town of Culture competition marks a bold bid to democratise cultural identity and stimulate local economies. The prize structure-three finalists, with a £3 million winner and £250,000 for runners-up, plus £60,000 for shortlisted bids-frames culture as a policy instrument with tangible fiscal rewards. The process will culminate in 2027 when the winner is announced, with implications for tourism, local engagement and regional branding.
Panel leadership, including Sir Phil Redmond, will shepherd a diverse slate of entrants from Longton to Perth, aiming to demonstrate how “unique stories” can shape national narratives. The exercise borrows from prior City of Culture success, notably Bradford in 2025, using cultural investment as a lever for positioning, identity, and regional development. Yet the rollout also tests governance questions: how to ensure fair access, how to translate culture into sustainable local outcomes, and how to avoid privileging places with existing cultural networks or tourism infrastructures.
The competition sits at the intersection of culture, place-making and economic strategy, offering a potential template for how culture-led regeneration could be scaled. The outcome will hinge on whether the winning bid translates into durable civic energy and whether the programme’s design can align with long-term regional development plans. In this sense, the Town of Culture contest is as much a political and governance experiment as a cultural initiative, with implications for how local identities can be mobilised within a national policy framework.
Welsh Offshore Wind Funding: Floating and fixed projects anchor a regional transition
Two major Welsh wind schemes advance a broader strategy to secure energy independence, jobs and pricing stability through diversified offshore technologies.
Welsh offshore wind funding signals a strategic push to anchor energy transition and industrial capability in Wales. The Erebus project-planned as Wales’ first floating offshore wind venture off Pembrokeshire-aims for 96MW with seven to ten turbines, situated roughly 45km offshore in the Celtic Sea. A second scheme, Awel y Mor, would deploy fixed offshore turbines about 10km off the coast near Rhyl, Denbighshire, with 34-50 turbines and a construction-phase job footprint of about 2,000. Together, these projects are designed to foster a homegrown clean-energy supply chain and to strengthen energy security by reducing import dependence.
Officials frame the investments as a milestone for regional energy transition and industrial strategy, with a long-run aim of stabilising power prices. The policy design promises broader economic spillovers: local fabrication, jobs and regional capability building, alongside a strategy to anchor floating wind in a region poised to become a hub for this technology. The packages are also presented within the context of a national ambition for renewables-led electricity, with a 2030s horizon in mind for scale and impact.
As with any large renewable rollout, the path is not without cost and risk. Grid integration, supply-chain logistics, and community concerns-such as seabird and ecological impacts around new installations-require careful management. Yet the Welsh plan positions floating wind as a potential regional anchor and a signal of government commitment to a diversified, domestically anchored energy future, while building a framework for broader energy-system resilience and job creation.
Trump Greenland Posture and Nvidia Export Controls: Market nerves and strategic leverage
Rhetoric on Greenland intersects with technology controls and market sensitivities as the US-European geo-political calculus tightens around supply chains and security tech.
The latest wave of geopolitical rhetoric finds a volatile intersection with technology controls and market dynamics. A high-profile claim about Greenland feeds into broader debates about security architecture, while Nvidia’s chip-export constraints to China move markets on supply-chain risk and regional tech competition. The regulatory framework now hinges on case-by-case review for AI chip exports, reframing a previously more constrained stance and highlighting the centrality of semiconductors in the US-China tech fray.
The instant market reaction-futures movements and risk-off cues-reflects a broader pattern: policy signals, even when ostensibly hedged as procedural, can alter risk pricing across currencies, equities and commodities. The Greenland moment sits amid a constellation of policy pressures around defence technology and AI governance, underscoring how national-security considerations now overtly shape commercial strategy and capital allocation. Investors watch how the US and its allies calibrate economic levers with strategic aims, including how to preserve competitive advantage while avoiding strategic missteps that could provoke market disorder or supply-chain dislocations.
The piece thus frames a broader, more enduring dynamic: the fusion of geopolitics and high-end technology markets is no longer episodic but structural. In this environment, policy clarity around defence tech, export controls and cross-border coordination becomes a key determinant of pricing, investment appetite and strategic risk. Greenland and the H200 export case become symbols of this new regime, where political signalling and market reaction reinforce a shared understanding that tech supremacy and dollar-based governance are being reconfigured in real time.
Silver Rally: The risk-off metal tests the old gold-silver relationship
A blistering swing in precious metals tests the resilience of traditional hedges as AI-driven demand and supply constraints reframe risk and liquidity.
The silver rally has outpaced gold recently, with silver up over 145 percent since the prior year’s close, while gold has risen just over 40 percent. The gold-silver ratio has moved toward the 50.0 mark, a level not seen since 2013, prompting traders to debate whether a retracement would hit silver harder than gold. A confluence of geopolitical uncertainty, currency devaluation fears, and AI-enabled demand growth underpins the price dynamic, set against a backdrop of longer-run supply constraints.
Analysts caution that momentum-driven moves can unwind abruptly, citing a 9 percent dip on 29 December as a reminder of volatility in this niche. The narrative emphasises that the longer-term fundamentals remain anchored in tight supply and expanding demand tied to AI and the green transition. Market participants weigh portfolios that capture durable exposure to energy transition themes while balancing the risk of a sharp reversal in speculative, high-beta assets within thinly traded markets.
The thread running through the analysis is a cautious optimism about a durable but imprevisible path for precious metals. The demand growth from AI and infrastructural investments could sustain elevated levels, even as price volatility tests the resilience of investor positions. The silver narrative thus sits at the intersection of macro uncertainty, technological acceleration, and the ongoing re-pricing of inflation hedges in an energy- and data-centric economy.
The Yen Rebound: Verbal interventions and the politics of normalization
Japan’s currency narrative unfolds as verbal jawboning and election timing complicate a smooth path toward monetary normalization.
The yen’s rebound unfolds within a fraught backdrop: real yields remain negative, the BoJ’s normalization path is slow, and domestic political signals fuel a trading atmosphere characterised by “sell the fact” dynamics. Finance Minister Shunichi Katayama underscored readiness to act “without excluding any option,” while senior diplomacy hints at coordinated responses if needed. The pair’s motion past the 158.00 level-against a broader macro backdrop of dovish policy-reflects market sensitivity to policy signals, even as the structural normalization remains contested.
In this longer-running currency drama, macro divergences between Japan’s expansionary fiscal stance and a cautious BoJ stance intersect with external pressures from the United States and global growth dynamics. Traders monitor not only verbal interventions but also the evolving political calendar-such as potential snap elections in February-that shape risk sentiment and pricing. The yen’s rebound thus becomes a lens on how expectations of eventual policy normalization are tested by real-time political contingencies, liquidity dynamics, and the ongoing tension between stimulus and price stability in a world of persistent inflation pressure.
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan: Procurement reform, defence integration, and external choke points
Beijing’s industrial and defence modernization agenda rests on three developments that could determine whether reform translates into genuine systemic change or a repackaging of power.
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan concentrates on procurement reform and military-civil fusion, seeking to modernise governance around major projects and to tighten budget discipline. The reforms emerge in the wake of a purge of senior officials and a push toward tighter governance, signaling a deep structural reset in how military and civilian capabilities are integrated for advanced technologies. The plan’s ambition rests on more rigorous acquisition mechanisms, stronger supervisory bodies, and closer alignment between civilian innovation and national defence.
External constraints-ranging from export controls to investment screening by the United States, Japan and other Western partners-compound the reform challenge. The tightening of technology flows and access to dual-use and frontier tech threatens the pace and scope of modernization if private participation does not expand meaningfully. Beijing’s pursuit of diversified sourcing, through technology transfers, joint ventures and indigenous innovation, has yielded incremental gains but now faces a harder external ceiling. The broader risk is a recalibration of China’s dual-use strategy in a context of growing global friction, raising questions about the balance between insulation and global integration in a modernisation drive that underwrites a major geopolitical contest.
Three looming developments will likely determine outcomes: the evolution of legal frameworks to govern military-civil fusion, the degree to which private-sector participation can challenge state-led dominance, and the trajectory of sanctions and foreign cooperation. Together, they will shape whether China’s reform cycle can deliver real efficiency gains and internationally credible governance or merely reconfigure the existing hierarchy with new faces at the helm. The plan’s ultimate success will hinge on how Beijing reconciles domestic accountability with the external constraints shaping its defence-industrial base and broader innovation ecosystem.
Bosnia’s Dayton Fragility in 2026: European leadership gaps, governance, and regional risk
Three decades after the Dayton accords, Bosnia and Herzegovina remain a test bed for European leadership and the fragility of multi-ethnic governance.
Bosnia’s Dayton framework remains a fragile instrument for regional stability, with European leadership and external stewardship to face significant tests. The elevation of political actors like Milorad Dodik-now navigating sanctions relief tied to lobbyist activity-illustrates how domestic bargaining interacts with international oversight. The European Union’s disengagement from day-to-day governance has left EUFOR hesitant to enforce Daytons mandates, intensifying the risk of obstruction and governance gridlock. The overall architecture, designed to prevent relapse into conflict, now depends on the willingness of European powers to reassert authority and reset the governance equilibrium at the state level.
The Dayton annexes and the Office of the High Representative (OHR) provide a mechanism to override domestic institutions, but the effectiveness of those tools is contingent on political will. The education ministries’ roles and the two-entity configuration create persistent veto dynamics that can stall reform. As Europe reassesses its neighbourhood role, the risk is a drift toward fragmentation that would reverberate across European security and the credibility of Western commitments. The conclusion is not predetermined: Europe could reclaim leadership and anchor Bosnia within a renewed security framework, or risk destabilising drift that would complicate regional stability and broader Western strategy.
To reinvigorate Dayton’s promise, experts argue for stronger European political will, credible judiciary reinforcement, and financing to back independent enforcement of verdicts. Conditioning financial assistance on credible reforms that strengthen central institutions becomes a lever to deter manipulation and preserve sovereignty. A renewed, Europe-led governance framework could unlock a durable, multiethnic settlement, preserving Bosnia’s sovereignty and reinforcing Western credibility on Europe’s doorstep. If Europe mobilises decisively, Dayton’s fragility can become a durable, stabilising anchor rather than a recurrent fault line.
The Regime-Change Debate: Prudent restraint and calibrated engagement
US policy lessons on regime change underline the dangers of overreach and the need for conditional, domestically legitimate transformations.
The regime-change discourse returns with the memory of past interventions-Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya-heavy with caution about destabilisation and long-term governance challenges. The argument now centres on weighing responses to transformative change that unfolds rather than actively pursuing a change as a policy goal. The analysis highlights historical episodes-Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and the Bay of Pigs-as lessons about the difficulty of stabilising a post-change order under foreign tutelage. The middle ground emphasises calibrated, conditional engagement aimed at encouraging reform while avoiding open-ended commitments.
The current theatres-Venezuela, Gaza, Iran and Cuba-illustrate a spectrum of possibilities that demand disciplined diplomacy rather than improvisation. Washington is urged to articulate policies that reward genuine reform while delivering targeted, conditional leverage to encourage responsible change, coupled with a focus on civilian protection. The overarching conclusion is that regime change is easier to advocate than to execute, and the long-term outcomes depend on credible post-change governance, domestic legitimacy, and a carefully designed strategy that aligns with strategic interests and regional stability.
Across theatres, the prudent path is to react to transformative change when it occurs, offering conditional, credible support to foster legitimate reform without entangling the United States in fragile state-building projects. The outcome will hinge on whether Washington can translate tough talk into leverage that remains anchored in regional stability and American interests, avoiding a perpetual flux of interventions that generate more volatility than durable governance. The regime-change debate, then, is less about a universal blueprint and more about disciplined, patient diplomacy that recognises the limits of force as a mechanism for lasting order.
UK Offshore Wind Auction: Record capacity, costs and grid constraints
Britain’s bid to accelerate clean power hinges on balancing ambitious capacity with cost management and network upgrades.
The UK’s offshore wind auction has delivered a record 8.4GW of capacity across England, Scotland and Wales, including major schemes such as the Berwick Bank phase and Dogger Bank South and Norfolk Vanguard, with Awel Y Mor marking Wales’ first project in more than a decade. The auction price framework, fixed for 20 years, is designed to provide developers with revenue certainty while the policy design faces continuing questions about grid upgrades and the ultimate impact on consumer bills. The government argues the renewables-led path will lower bills in the long run, but critics warn that the near-term price environment and network costs could offset some of the consumer gains.
Analysts caution that bringing 8.4GW online by 2030 will be challenging, given the need to connect projects to the grid amidst ongoing cost pressures from supply chains and higher interest rates. The valuation framework contrasts renewables with gas, highlighting a wide gap between 147/MWh for gas scenarios and 91/MWh for wind under 2024 price benchmarks, while also noting the long-run effects of cheaper renewables on wholesale prices. Debates around grid upgrades-Ofgem’s concerns and the need for careful cost management-colour the outlook as policymakers grapple with balancing affordability, reliability and climate commitments.
The politics of energy in the UK now blend affordability with climate ambition. Stakeholders flag grid integration, seabird and ecological considerations around large wind farms, and regional governance questions as the policy framework evolves. The Berwick Bank, Dogger Bank South and Norfolk Vanguard projects sit at the heart of a broader transition, with industry and climate groups broadly welcoming the outcome while watchdogs compel attention to grid feasibility and the price of connecting new capacity to homes and businesses. This auction thus serves as both a milestone and a stress test for Britain’s renewables-led future, where policy credibility and execution capacity must align to deliver both lower bills and cleaner power.
Drones in the Black Sea: War risk and energy routes amid geopolitical turbulence
Attacks on two Kazakh oil tankers in the Black Sea intensify concerns about shipping risk, insurance costs, and the security of energy transit routes.
Drones struck two oil tankers in the Black Sea, including a vessel chartered by Chevron, underscoring a destabilising episode in a corridor vital to Kazakh oil flows. The timing coincides with a sharp drop in Kazakh production in early January as export constraints via the CPC terminal complicate routes to global markets. War risk insurance for Black Sea sailings nearly doubled, reflecting the recalibration of risk premium as traders reassess exposure to energy routes and the potential for escalation.
The incident also highlights broader exposure across Caspian and Black Sea pipelines, with attack dynamics and security responses shaping both the physical and financial dimensions of energy trade. The Delta Harmony, Matilda, and other vessels linked to Kazakh and Russian flows faced operational disruptions and heightened risk perception, translating into tighter risk pricing for war-risk insurance and reinsurance markets. The market’s anxiety points to a broader strategic recalibration around energy security, shipping lanes, and the governance of border regions that intersect with major energy corridors.
As policymakers and insurers navigate this risk environment, attention will turn to how to deter, defend and insure critical routes in a region where political and military calculus can shift rapidly. The evolving drone threat, combined with the fragility of regional infrastructure, will test the resilience of energy flows and the cost of maintaining reliable, predictable access to global oil markets.
UK Data Centre Risks: Energy demand, reliability and resilience in a shifting tech economy
Data-centre energy demand creates electricity-grid stress and prompts insurer and risk-transfer responses across a structurally changing digital economy.
A broader data-centre and infrastructure narrative runs through risk transfer channels as AI and cloud adoption surges. The energy-intensity of data facilities places additional stress on electricity networks, elevating the importance of resilience planning, grid upgrades and risk transfer instruments for this fast-expanding sector. Insurers and risk professionals highlight the need for robust cyber and physical risk modelling, given the centrality of data infrastructure to modern economies.
Business lines and capital providers respond with a mix of traditional and innovative risk-transfer solutions, from catastrophe bonds to comprehensive lifecycle insurance programmes. The sector’s growth is paired with a demand for greater transparency around exposure, supply-chain dependencies, and the physical security of data assets. The convergence of digital infrastructure and energy systems thus becomes a focal point for resilience planning, with insurers and corporate buyers seeking to reduce the vulnerability of critical information flows to outages or cyber incidents.
This thread sits alongside broader risk analyses around climate adaptation, energy transition, and the evolving landscape of global governance for digital infrastructure. As the data economy expands, the alignment of policy support, grid capacity, and risk-transfer instruments will determine the pace and stability of the AI-enabled future.