James Sawyer Intelligence Lab - Newsdesk Brief

Newsdesk Field Notes

Field reporting and analysis distilled for serious readers who track capital, policy and crisis narratives across London and beyond.

Updated 2026-01-12 10:17 UTC (UTC) Newsdesk lab analysis track | no sensationalism

Lead Story

Flood warnings persist as Scotland braces for renewed downpours and fragile travel

Heavy rain and melting snow renew flood risk across multiple regions, prompting staged recoveries and hillside checks before roads re-open.

Scotland faces another round of disruption as the Scottish Environment Protection Agency issues 18 flood warnings and 12 flood alerts nationwide. The A92 remains closed in both directions in Aberdeenshire, while the A9 at Blair Atholl in Perth and Kinross is also shut, illustrating the breadth of the impact. A Met Office yellow warning covers much of north-west Scotland, with safety messaging heightened as a landslip on the A815 at Rest and Be Thankful triggers diversions and cautions for motorists. Authorities emphasise that hillside inspections will determine when traffic can be restored, pointing to a cautious, staged approach to relief rather than an abrupt relaxation of restrictions.

The wider pattern includes further closures as the Rest and Be Thankful hillside continues to be scrutinised, and the A83 remains shut with traffic diverted to alternative routes. The incident follows a week of wintry weather that closed hundreds of schools across northern Scotland; Aberdeenshire Council last week declared a major incident before reporting its conclusion on Sunday. With about a dozen Aberdeenshire schools still closed and other districts gradually reopening, officials warn conditions remain volatile and commuters should monitor forecasts, flood alerts and travel guidance. David Morgan, Sepa’s flood duty manager, underscored the risk posed by persistent rain and melting snow, with the west and north of Scotland most exposed.

At the political level, the Scottish Government’s Resilience Room has met for a seventh day running to coordinate responses, with senior officials urging vigilance and ongoing monitoring of forecasts. The episode underlines a structural tension in crisis governance: rapid, decentralised decision-making must balance public safety, transport reliability and economic continuity, even as the authorities pursue a staged return to normal operations. The signal is clear: fragility in weather systems translates into fragile mobility and local service delivery, demanding disciplined, tempo-controlled execution rather than heroic, single-event responses.

In This Edition

  • Scotland flood warnings escalate: ongoing travel disruption and staged recovery
  • IVF and single motherhood in the United States: rising prevalence among women in their 40s
  • Exercise versus medication for depression: Cochrane review reinforces mood benefits
  • ACA subsidies expire: marriage for coverage and affordability pressures in the United States
  • Eurozone morale lifts at start of 2026: Sentix signals improving investor sentiment
  • DOJ subpoenas Fed: independence in focus as markets reassess policy risks
  • Avalanche fatality in La Plagne: backcountry danger amid peak-season risk
  • OPEC+ compensation plans updated: production pauses and conformity framework reaffirmed
  • Iberdrola completes Alto Paranaiba transmission line in Brazil
  • US rare earth supply strategy: G7 alliance to diversify away from China
  • Data centre disruption in Louisiana: local economy exposed to AI infrastructure growth
  • Hypothetical scenario: Greenland becomes sovereign via geo-osmosis-a speculative projection for strategic reflection

Stories

IVF and single motherhood in the United States: a growing reality for women in their 40s

The rise of single mothers by choice reshapes pricing, access, and corporate coverage for fertility services.

A narrative that began in clinics and spreadsheets has become a demographic pattern: IVF births now aid a significant fraction of older, unpartnered women building families in the United States. In Nashville, Laura Terry exemplifies the path, having conceived Eleanor in 2021 and Margaret two years later after mapping out a donor selection process with painstaking granularity. The phenomenon is aided by data showing 44% of American women are unpartnered, and IVF accounts for around 2% of births with nearly 100,000 IVF births annually, a figure that has risen over the past decade.

Yet the practical barriers endure. IVF costs typically run from about 15,000 to over 30,000 dollars per cycle, and only about one in four large employers offers any contribution to the process. Education emerges as an indicator of access: women with master’s or doctoral degrees are more likely to use IVF, a reflection of higher incomes and greater self-determination in family planning. The broader policy conversation-ranging from donor selection to health coverage and employer responsibility-frames the emotional and logistical weight carried by women choosing to pursue motherhood on their own terms.

The personal stories illuminate a wider social and economic tension: balancing career trajectory with family-building, and negotiating the stigma that can accompany non-traditional parenting. For Terry, the decision to move for a less demanding role and a connected family life demonstrates how economic trade-offs shape family choices. At a policy level, the debate over affordability, access and fortifying safety nets remains front and centre, even as some see the rise of solo-parent families as a reconfiguration of traditional life courses.

Exercise is as effective as medication in treating depression, study finds

A major synthesis finds physical activity matches pharmacological and psychotherapeutic interventions for depressive symptoms.

A large-scale Cochrane review of 73 randomized controlled trials, comprising about 5,000 participants with depression, finds that exercise can be as effective as antidepressants or psychotherapy. The conclusions, echoed by clinical voices, highlight biochemical and neurotrophic pathways: exercise influences serotonin, dopamine and endorphins, while also boosting brain-derived neurotrophic factor, a driver of neural plasticity. The combined effect of aerobic and resistance training yields greater gains than aerobic activity alone, with the most robust improvements emerging after a series of sessions.

The practical takeaway is to start small and tailor activity to personal preference, with walking, jogging, yoga or tai chi all viable entry points. Group exercise can confer psychosocial benefits that extend beyond symptom relief. Clinicians emphasise that exercise should be integrated into a broader treatment plan, including therapy or medications when appropriate, and that long-term follow-up data remain limited. The findings reinforce a message that is gaining traction in clinical practice: non-pharmacological interventions can play a central role in mood management, especially when personalised and sustainably maintained.

This evidence adds to a broader public health perspective that seeks to normalise physical activity as a clinical tool rather than a lifestyle choice. While the research does not erase individual variation in response or the need for multi-modal care, it strengthens the case for prescribing exercise as a low-cost, widely accessible intervention. The implications for health systems are meaningful: expanding access to structured activity programmes could alleviate demand on other treatments and improve population mental health outcomes.

Marrying for health insurance? The ACA cost crisis forces dramatic choices

As enhanced subsidies expire, millions risk loss of affordable coverage and some turn to pragmatic marriages to retain benefits.

Across the United States, the expiry of enhanced ACA subsidies has become a stress test for affordability and access. In Michigan, a 40-year-old with autoimmune conditions describes how she navigated renewed coverage needs by marrying a longtime roommate to access health benefits. The arrangement, described by analysts as pragmatic rather than romantic, reflects the urgency many feel to preserve continuity of care in the face of rising premiums once subsidies lapse. For Mathew and others, these human choices expose the fragility of a system built on incremental policy extensions.

The broader picture concerns roughly 24 million people who obtain care through ACA marketplaces. With subsidies expiring, many face renewed questions about affordability, even as lawmakers debate whether to restore enhanced subsidies or return to pre-ACA dynamics. Health-law scholars flag that the legal status of such practical marriages sits in a liminal space-not illegal, but contentious-while clinicians warn that gaps in coverage threaten timely referrals and care for chronic conditions. The debate thus pivots on policy design, political will and the practical realities faced by patients who must balance health needs with economic constraints.

Against this backdrop, the public policy question becomes whether Congress can reach a durable compromise that preserves access without fragmenting coverage. Mathew’s story illustrates the human stakes of a subsidy cliff, while analysts stress that any restoration would need to be designed with equity in mind and with guardrails to prevent unintended consequences in already fragile care pathways. The unfolding negotiation thus sits at the intersection of health, labour markets and political arithmetic, with potential implications for millions who rely on ACA marketplaces for essential protections.

Eurozone investor morale clocks in higher than expected to start 2026

Sentix surveys signal a bifurcated mood between private and professional investors as Germany strengthens its position within a cautiously optimistic euro area.

The Sentix index for the eurozone rose to -1.8, beating expectations and marking the strongest reading since mid-2025. The improvement is concentrated in Germany, where sentiment climbs to -16.4, supported by an uplift in the expectations component, while inflation anxiety appears to ease somewhat. Across the Atlantic, the US index advances to 13.2 points, signalling a relatively robust view of the economy despite domestic political distractions. The report highlights a divergence between professional investors and private participants as the year opens.

Yet doubts persist about the durability of the rebound. Germany’s current situation index remains deeply negative at -36.0, underscoring skepticism about near-term activity recovery, even as private sentiment lifts elsewhere. The data imply that euro area stabilization may hinge on a gradual re-acceleration in investment and production, with inflation trajectory and policy coordination as the critical constraints. The contrasting US posture reinforces the sense that divergence in macro dynamics will remain a defining feature of early 2026.

In combination, the signals point to a fragile, asymmetrical start to the year: cautious optimism in core economies and mixed implications for peripheral markets, set against ongoing policy debates in major economies. The market mood remains sensitive to policy shifts, energy prices, and external shocks that could re-assert volatility. As investors recalibrate, attention will likely turn to central bank communications, real-economy data, and the evolving international active agenda for growth, inflation and exchange-rate expectations.

The case around Fed independence intensifies as DOJ subpoenas raise political stakes

A DOJ move to question Fed leadership over a high-profile renovation dispute intensifies the debate over central bank autonomy and policy credibility.

News that the Department of Justice subpoenaed the Federal Reserve over comments to the Senate Banking Committee has sparked a sharp reaction in financial markets and policy circles. Critics argue the action signals political pressure aimed at pressuring faster rate cuts, while proponents insist that the independence of the central bank must be protected from political intrusion. Market responses include hedging against potential inflationary spillovers and re-assessing long-duration positions as credibility risk festers.

Even if legal actions proceed or Powell faces removal, the Fed Chair appears prepared to challenge any move in court, leaving ultimate resolution a potential Supreme Court consideration. The episode raises broader questions about the resilience of the Fed’s autonomy and the spillovers for global markets, where US policy continues to anchor pricing of debt and risk. In the interim, gold surges reflect a bid for inflation protection amid renewed questions about policy divergence between the administration and the central bank, with investors weighing the likelihood and timing of any shift in the trajectory of rates.

Analysts emphasise that independence is not simply a domestic concern but a global financial architecture issue. If central-bank autonomy is perceived as compromised, the risk premium could widen and risk assets could experience renewed volatility. The episode thus underscores the fragility of policy governance in conditions of political contest and the need for credible, transparent central-bank communication to anchor expectations amid shifting political winds.

Avalanche kills skier in La Plagne amid peak season safety warnings

Backcountry skiing tragedy underscores ongoing avalanche risk and the limits of safety guidance in high-risk Alpine terrain.

Rescuers responded to a fatal backcountry avalanche at La Plagne, where a man in his 50s was found beneath significant snow after a prolonged search. He was skiing without essential safety equipment, highlighting the dangers of off-piste routes during peak season. La Plagne’s safety guidance reiterates the importance of avalanche forecasts and protective gear for backcountry activities, with the Foreign Office confirming support for the family and ongoing coordination with authorities.

The incident sits within a broader pattern of Alpine tragedies that has included other regions in recent weeks, underscoring the persistent hazards of winter mountaineering when weather conditions are volatile and information streams are complex. Operators and safety bodies emphasise the need for adherence to risk bulletins and robust preparation, as even experienced skiers can become exposed to unpredictable snowpack dynamics. The episode reinforces the adage that safety is a continuous practice in high-risk environments, not a one-off checklist.

In the broader narrative, the tragedy amplifies calls for improved backcountry safety culture, more effective dissemination of avalanche forecasts, and potential adjustments to resort governance around off-piste access. It also serves as a reminder of how climate variability can intensify hazards in mountain regions, affecting tourism, local economies, and regional risk management strategies.

OPEC+ updates compensation plans and reaffirms production framework

An eight-country coalition renews its commitment to market stability through a structured compensation mechanism and continued vigilance on output.

OPEC+ has published updated compensation plans covering December 2025 through June 2026, with blended commitments from Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan and Oman, among others. The documentation shows daily production baselines by country and reinforces the pause on production increments in February and March 2026 due to seasonality. The eight participants reaffirm the Declaration of Cooperation and stress the importance of conformity and compensation mechanisms overseen by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee.

The package includes a mechanism to compensate for any overproduced volumes since January 2024 and confirms monthly reviews of market conditions and conformity. The statements also articulate the intention to retain flexibility to extend or reverse additional production adjustments, balancing the need for stability with the risks of demand weakness or supply pressures. The framework signals a cautious, adaptive posture aimed at preventing a flood of supply shifts from destabilising prices while ensuring alignment with broader strategic objectives across member nations.

Taken together, the updates reinforce the ongoing architecture of coordinated oil market management, emphasising discipline, transparency, and the readiness to respond to evolving balance of supply and demand conditions. The emphasis on compensation and conformity suggests a continuing prioritisation of price stability and predictable revenue streams for producers in a volatile energy landscape.

Iberdrola completes its largest transmission line in Brazil

The Alto Paranaiba project expands grid reach, linking the north of Minas Gerais to Sao Paulo with major implications for energy access.

Iberdrola SA reports the energisation of a 1,600-kilometre transmission line between northern Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo, a landmark project for Neoenergia and Brazil’s grid, with six substations and thousands of towers. The BRL 4.2 billion undertaking-completed 15 months ahead of schedule-forms part of Iberdrola’s broader portfolio expansion in Brazil, alongside Neoenergia’s distribution network across multiple states. The project strengthens transmission capacity and is framed as a catalyst for renewed growth in renewable generation, much of it hydroelectric, by expanding grid interconnections.

The rollout complements Iberdrola’s strategic aims in Brazil, including the planned integration of new renewables and the reinforcement of existing infrastructure. The company highlights that Neoenergia serves tens of millions of customers and operates a vast network of distribution and transmission lines, with a large installed generation base. The investment underscores the role of cross-border energy players in expanding grid reliability and enabling higher levels of renewable penetration in a growing energy market.

Beyond operational detail, the project signals how major European energy groups are deepening their footprint in Latin America’s electricity infrastructure. As Brazil pursues expanding access to electricity and integrating intermittent generation, such grid-scale transmission assets become pivotal to both reliability and the financial calculus of utilities expanding in emerging markets.

US pushes to reduce rare earth dependence on China

Washington convenes a global push to diversify supply chains for critical minerals amid strategic competition with China.

The United States is urging G7 partners to reduce reliance on China for rare earths and accelerate decoupling efforts as part of a broader electrification push. Officials describe a coordinated strategy with Australia, India, South Korea and Mexico aimed at expanding diversification and resilience in critical-minerals supply chains. China’s dominance in rare earths has become a focal point in security and economic policy, with Western governments seeking to mitigate exposure to single-country risk as the green transition accelerates.

The multiparty dialogue underscores a shared concern about the vulnerability of high-value inputs for wind turbines, EVs, electronics and defence technologies. The approach includes a mix of investment, regulatory alignment and shared best practices to accelerate alternative sources and processing capabilities, reducing the leverage that a single supplier might wield. The momentum of these discussions reflects broader strategic intent to secure supply lines while maintaining competitive market dynamics and dampening the risk of price shocks or supply disruptions.

The policy posture signals a longer-term reshaping of the global rare-earths landscape, where the United States and its allies seek to build a more multipolar ecosystem. The outcome could influence investment decisions, supplier diversification, and national security planning for critical technologies in the coming years, with potential spillovers into trade policy and industrial strategy across participating economies.

Data centre disruption in Louisiana exposes local economy to AI infrastructure growth

The rapid expansion of AI data infrastructure reshapes local economies and labour markets in the American South.

A sprawling data centre project in Louisiana is framed as a case study in how hyperscale infrastructure can become a local economic shock, both positive and negative. The facility’s footprint, jobs, and associated supply chains are mounting, while community concerns about resilience, energy use and economic concentration come into sharper focus. Observers warn that the concentration of data-processing capacity can shift regional dynamics, with local businesses feeling the squeeze as demand for services, housing and labour shifts around the new anchor facility.

The narrative highlights a broader tension: the transformative potential of AI load-bearing infrastructure against the risk of economic hollowing-out in nearby communities that host the facilities. Local governance, utility capacity and land-use decisions intersect with the capital expenditure cycles of large tech operators, creating a test bed for how digital economies reconfigure regional development patterns. The Louisiana case thus becomes a lens on the distributional consequences of AI-enabled growth and the policy toolkit needed to manage them.

In this context, observers call for proactive planning around energy infrastructure, housing, and workforce retraining to mitigate dislocations while enabling the benefits of data-center scale. The episode serves as a microcosm of a broader trend in which the digital economy reaches into rural and peri-urban spaces, reshaping expectations and stress-testing resilience across municipal budgets and service delivery.

Speculative scenario: Greenland’s sovereignty transition via geo-osmosis

Hypothetical scenario exploring a non-traditional path to territorial influence in the Arctic-the absorption of Greenland through dependency and soft power rather than force.

This piece is a speculative scenario for strategic reflection. It imagines a sequence in which a major power uses investment, contractor presence and governance influence to reshape Greenlandic loyalties, eventually embedding sovereignty claims through economic and political dependencies rather than overt annexation. The narrative draws on a plausible set of mechanisms-urban redevelopment, digital infrastructure, media influence, and security partnerships-that could tilt political calculus without formal referenda or overt military action. While not a forecast, the scenario is designed to illuminate structural dynamics around sovereignty, dependency, and regional power competition.

The exercise in hypothetical storytelling highlights how modern great-power competition can unfold in contested spaces where populations face limited fiscal sovereignty and external actors offer critical services in exchange for leverage. It also raises normative questions about consent, autonomy and the long-term costs of strategic footprints that blur lines between assistance and influence. The point is to surface testable contradictions and decision points that decision-makers would need to confront should similar dynamics ever arise in the Arctic or comparable theatres.

Narratives and Fault Lines

  • The Scotland crisis reveals a central split between rapid emergency management and long-range resilience planning. Some officials argue for staged re-opening and hillside verification as a prudent discipline; others warn that the fragility of transport links could erode public confidence and economic stability if delays lengthen.
  • In the US, IVF’s rise as a family-building path intersects sharply with affordability and equity debates. Proponents describe autonomy and empowerment, while critics underscore the continuing premium burdens and the uneven distribution of employer support. The fault line lies in how policy tools translate into lived access for women across education and income levels.
  • The depression-treatment signal from exercise challenges conventional medicine to broaden its behavioral toolkit. The tension is between patient autonomy and clinical inertia; if healthcare systems institutionalise exercise as a formal prescription, reimbursement and access will become pivotal determinants of its reach.
  • The ACA subsidy cliff exposes a policy fracture between political feasibility and population health needs. The practical marriages described crystallise a desperate improvisation in the absence of durable subsidies, prompting a re-evaluation of the social compact and employer-based coverage norms.
  • Sentix data and Fed-independence frictions map a split between optimism in private market sentiment and scepticism about policy coherence. The tension centers on how central banks maintain credibility while navigating political scrutiny, and whether markets punish perceived interference with monetary autonomy.
  • The La Plagne tragedy and avalanche risk foreground a shared governance challenge: how tourism, safety regulation and climate volatility converge to create unacceptable hazards. Operators and regulators must align forecasts with real-world decision points in a system where human life depends on timely and accurate risk assessments.
  • The OPEC+ framework demonstrates a cautious, rule-based approach to stabilising price formation. The fault line here is whether flexibility to adjust production in response to market signals will be perceived as credible or will invite opportunistic behaviour from members or competitors.
  • The energy grid expansion in Brazil exemplifies how multinationals anchor regional growth via large-scale transmission assets. The underlying tension is whether deployment of large infrastructure translates into broader energy access or merely concentrates opportunity in a few hands, with knock-on effects for regulation and local employment.
  • The US-China rare-earths push signals a strategic shift toward diversified supply chains, with potential spillovers into technology policy and industrial strategy. The fault line lies in whether supply diversification can keep pace with accelerating demand while maintaining competitive pricing and balanced incentives for investment across partner economies.
  • The Louisiana data centre episode highlights the tension between macro-scale AI infrastructure growth and local economic resilience. Communities seek assurance that the benefits will diffuse rather than concentrate, prompting a governance agenda around workforce training, housing, and taxation regimes that capture value for the broader region.
  • The Greenland speculative vignette forces readers to confront the elasticity of sovereignty in a world where financial and logistical dependencies can unbalance traditional governance. The narrative exposes the fragility of existing legal norms when strategic interests intersect with powerful non-state actors and dense capital flows.

Hidden Risks and Early Warnings

  • Flooding risk intensifies if rainfall persists and snowmelt continues; watch road closures, hillside inspections and city-level emergency coordination for rapid escalation or successful containment.
  • IVF access risk sharpens if health coverage remains patchy or if employer-provided subsidies shrink, potentially increasing inequities in who can pursue family-building through assisted reproduction.
  • Depression treatment may rely more heavily on physical activity programmes if clinical capacity to scale talk therapies remains constrained; monitor referrals and community exercise uptake.
  • ACA subsidy discontinuities could trigger sudden changes in coverage patterns, including spikes in uncompensated care and shifts to alternative insurance arrangements or marriage-based access.
  • Investor sentiment divergence between private and professional actors may foreshadow mispricing around macro data releases or policy announcements, particularly if central-bank communications become opaque.
  • Governance risk around central bank independence could escalate if political interference perceptions persist, threatening inflation expectations and currency stability.
  • Alpine safety warnings should be treated as continuous signals; isolated incidents may precede broader risk if climate variability sustains unpredictable avalanche cycles.
  • OPEC+ conformity and compensation mechanics are delicate instruments; any erosion of trust in adherence could degrade price stability and invite external volatility.
  • Transmission-line projects like Alto Paranaiba can transform local economies, but risks include cost overruns, grid integration challenges and community pushback if benefits do not materialise evenly.
  • Diversification of rare-earths supply is vulnerable to geopolitical rifts and potential trade frictions; early indicators include policy shifts, investment announcements, and processing capacity timelines.
  • Data-centre-driven local dynamics can pivot quickly if energy pricing, water resources or power reliability tighten; watch utility load factors, local hiring data and commercial vacancy rates.
  • The Greenland hypothetical framework tests normative assumptions around sovereignty and consent; indicators would include regional political alignment, contractor-led governance shifts and public sentiment data.

Possible Escalation Paths

  • Weather disruption widens: road closures become system-wide bottlenecks as hillside checks uncover further instability; signs include additional route closures and delayed recoveries.
  • Health policy shock: ACA subsidies are renewed or replaced; premium trajectories ease, reducing the incentive for pragmatic marriages, altering care continuity dynamics.
  • Monetary policy drift: Fed independence fears deepen, triggering heightened volatility in Treasuries and gold, with a clearer risk of policy mispricing if a Supreme Court decision lingers.
  • Energy market rebalancing: OPEC+ adjustments align with new demand signals, stabilising prices but inviting follow-on investment shifts in renewables and grid-scale projects.
  • Supply chain realignments: rare-earth diversification accelerates, with new mining or processing capacity coming online in allied economies, altering global pricing dynamics and investment flows.
  • Alpine risk management: climate volatility drives stricter risk controls and dynamic travel advisories; insurers reassess coverage for backcountry activities and resort operators adjust risk models accordingly.
  • Sovereignty strategies: Greenland-style influence campaigns increase in Arctic theatres, testing international law, local legitimacy, and alliance commitments as external actors vie for strategic footholds.

Unanswered Questions To Watch

  • Will hillside inspections in Scotland confirm a timely return of traffic to the A83 and related routes?
  • How will IVF access and affordability evolve if employer coverage remains patchy and subsidies do not resume?
  • Does the Cochrane finding translate into sustained changes in clinical practice and patient uptake for exercise as standard depression care?
  • Will Congress revive enhanced ACA subsidies, and what design features would ensure equitable access going forward?
  • Can eurozone sentiment gains be sustained through central-bank messaging and real-economy data in the coming months?
  • Will DOJ actions against the Fed culminate in a legal ruling that redefines central bank independence?
  • Will the La Plagne safety framework be strengthened to prevent future backcountry fatalities?
  • How will OPEC+ investors interpret continued conformity and compensation mechanics in the face of shifting demand?
  • Will Iberdrola and Neoenergia continue to de-risk Brazil’s grid expansion while addressing social licence and environmental concerns?
  • How quickly can China-alternative rare-earth supply chains scale to meaningful market share without triggering inflationary pressure?
  • Will the Louisiana data centre episode lead to new regional policies on energy, housing and wages in AI hubs?
  • In the Greenland speculative scenario, what would be the first credible triggers of formal sovereignty shifts, and what would be the international response?

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