JS Labs LNG Forecasting - EU LNG storage and regasification

Author: James Sawyer | Node: js-lng-edge-01 | Connection: conn-796559

Daily EU LNG storage levels (GWh), regasification send-out and capacity utilisation. Prophet provides the forward forecast. CatBoost is displayed as a 1-day-ahead rolling backtest plus a next-day point estimate; shaded bands represent model uncertainty, not guaranteed bounds or limits.

How to read this dashboard: Panel 1 shows historical storage in GWh with a Prophet forecast curve and CatBoost backtest markers plus storage utilisation percentage on the secondary axis. Panel 2 overlays STL trend and seasonal components with green/red windows where the seasonal signal is strongly supportive or bearish. Panel 3 plots Prophet and CatBoost residuals as a stress test of model error over time. Panel 4 ranks CatBoost feature importance, indicating which engineered inputs drive the one-step-ahead forecast. Panel 5 summarises average seasonal pull by calendar month. Panel 6 provides a forward forecast table with expected storage path, uncertainty band and implied utilisation.